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Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 09:58 AM Aug 2015

Nate Silver: Hillary Clinton's Inevitable Problems

Instead, the media wants campaigns with lots of “game changers,” unexpected plot twists and photo finishes. If the story isn’t really there, the press can cobble one together by invoking fuzzy concepts like “momentum” and “expectations,” or by cherry-picking polls and other types of evidence. The lone recent poll to show Sanders ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire made banner headlines, for example, while the many other polls that have Clinton still leading, or which show Sanders’s surge slowing down in Iowa and nationally, have mostly been ignored.

As a result, the flow of news that Americans are getting about Clinton is quite negative. Indeed, the steady decline in her favorability ratings seems consistent with the drip, drip, drip of negative coverage, as opposed to the spikes upward and downward that one might expect if any one development was all that significant to voters.

There’s probably not a lot the Clinton campaign can do about the tone of her news coverage for now. The master narrative about her being “inevitable” — and the incentive the press has to frame a better story by portraying the Democratic race as “unexpectedly” competitive — is too powerful. Winning Iowa and New Hampshire might help Clinton, but even there, she’ll have to beat the media’s high expectations in addition to Sanders and her other opponents. This can be true to an absurd extent: When Walter Mondale beat Gary Hart 49 percent to 16 percent in the 1984 Iowa caucus, it was Hart who emerged with the favorable press coverage because he had done a bit better than polls and journalists had anticipated.

The good news from Clinton’s standpoint is that the master narrative will be reset if and when she eventually wins the nomination, Republicans choose their candidate and the general election begins. There are things that could work for Clinton (like that most journalists are politically liberal) or against her (Clinton has a fraught relationship with the media) in the tenor of her press coverage, but overall the coverage will probably have a more neutral effect in the general election than it does in the primaries. Barring a genuine “game changer” like a recession or Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination (don’t bet on it), the general election is liable to be close, and either Clinton losing the race (end of the Clinton dynasty!) or winning it (first female president!) would be a good story.

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clinton-scandal-inevitable-problems/

Lengthy but good article. Nate pegs Clinton's chance at the nomination at 85% and talks in length about the Sanders' campaign being most similar to the one Bill Bradley ran against Gore.

43 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Nate Silver: Hillary Clinton's Inevitable Problems (Original Post) Godhumor Aug 2015 OP
Hard to believe anything that includes "most journalists are politically liberal." Scuba Aug 2015 #1
Journalists are overwhelmingly liberal Godhumor Aug 2015 #2
Firstly, there's damned few "journalists" still in the business ... Scuba Aug 2015 #3
You're definitely right about editors and managers. Not so sure about journalists RufusTFirefly Aug 2015 #4
Some of us are still in this to get at the truth nadinbrzezinski Aug 2015 #12
Yes indeed. True journalists may be endangered, but they aren't yet extinct RufusTFirefly Aug 2015 #14
Reality has a liberal bias. n/t Lil Missy Aug 2015 #5
I get you there Blue_Adept Aug 2015 #6
yes foxface666 Aug 2015 #21
Source please. Scuba Aug 2015 #22
Silver is being a bit silly this cycle. askew Aug 2015 #7
You missed the point. The fact is, negative press and some kind of faux scandal are not unexpected. DanTex Aug 2015 #11
Polls will drop dramatically once Clinton starts making more public appearances Picking Dem Aug 2015 #18
Her strategists are gambling. kenfrequed Aug 2015 #37
Its completely opposite of 2008. In 2008, Clinton spent a ton of money early and ran out. stevenleser Aug 2015 #39
Or, you just dont want to hear what he is saying Cosmocat Aug 2015 #24
Hillary's stance on the environement is not what her supporters think it is. JDPriestly Aug 2015 #40
Good article. KNR! SonderWoman Aug 2015 #8
Sounds like Nate is complaining that the test subjects aren't behaving correctly. nt Romulox Aug 2015 #9
Good article. Essentially, there have been some ups and downs, but those were already "priced in" to DanTex Aug 2015 #10
Sounds like Nate is a Hillary supporter. He didn't mention the negative coverage of Sanders eg. sabrina 1 Aug 2015 #13
What was the second one? I only know about the NH poll that was 37-44 Godhumor Aug 2015 #15
The Iowa Straw poll this weekend. sabrina 1 Aug 2015 #16
The state fair straw "poll" was not a poll and had about as much real world meaning Godhumor Aug 2015 #17
Right. All the Iowans who visited the state fair aren't real voters Picking Dem Aug 2015 #19
You got me, that is exactly what I said. Wait, no it isn't Godhumor Aug 2015 #20
The Iowa State Fair poll is not a scientific poll. It is for fun, run by a TV station. emulatorloo Aug 2015 #38
Sanders getting negative coverage ? What planet are you on bigdarryl Aug 2015 #23
This sounds like a republican Cosmocat Aug 2015 #25
The media will do it best to make news and show that there is really a race when there is not Gothmog Aug 2015 #26
Don't be so certain. JDPriestly Aug 2015 #41
Posted to for later. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Aug 2015 #27
so its the media's fault she is less popular restorefreedom Aug 2015 #28
No, his point is that political markets haven't budged on her chances that much Godhumor Aug 2015 #29
i guess only time will tell. nt. restorefreedom Aug 2015 #43
Is Nate a statistician, or a media scold? This article seems a bit outside his core competency... n Romulox Aug 2015 #30
Nate Silver has offered commentary on trends and campaigns sufrommich Aug 2015 #31
He's a statistician. He needs to stop complaining that the test subjects aren't doing it right. nt Romulox Aug 2015 #32
He doesn't "need" to do anything,nobody is sufrommich Aug 2015 #33
OK, but his partisan editorializing hurts his credibility as a "statistician". nt Romulox Aug 2015 #34
Not really.He's a strong believer in "numbers don't lie" sufrommich Aug 2015 #35
That's the opposite of his point. He is saying the test subjects are doing exactly what is predicted Godhumor Aug 2015 #36
K N' R ericson00 Aug 2015 #42
 

Scuba

(53,475 posts)
3. Firstly, there's damned few "journalists" still in the business ...
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 10:12 AM
Aug 2015

Secondly, editors and managers are in charge of hiring and firing their "journalists."

RufusTFirefly

(8,812 posts)
4. You're definitely right about editors and managers. Not so sure about journalists
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 10:12 AM
Aug 2015

I'm afraid things are changing. Whereas people once used to pursue journalism as a kind of calling (I come from a family of journalists; I know), I think there are a growing number of people pursuing journalism not to get to the truth, but to control the discourse.

RufusTFirefly

(8,812 posts)
14. Yes indeed. True journalists may be endangered, but they aren't yet extinct
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 02:40 PM
Aug 2015

For those who continue to seek the truth and perhaps even "to comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable," I salute you!

askew

(1,464 posts)
7. Silver is being a bit silly this cycle.
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 11:01 AM
Aug 2015

The overwhelmingly negative Hillary stories are driven by 4 things:

1. The Email saga which is 100% of Hillary's own making. Can't blame the media for this mess.

2. Lack of campaigning by Hillary. Hillary is doing bare minimum in campaigning. As a result, there is very little positive news coverage that can be generated from tweets and townhalls filled with adoring supporters who never ask her any tough questions.

3. Ducking issues - Hillary has decided the best way to campaign is to avoid taking any tough stands on any issue. So, when a reporter finally manages to sneak in a real question or a non-supporter gets into one of her events and asks a question, she ducks it. She's done it time and time again on Keystone XL, TPP, etc. That becomes the story instead of anything else that happened in the campaign.

4. Self-inflicted wounds - What genius thought it was a good idea to tie up reporters and drag them along a parade route? That killed any positive stories from Hillary walking the parade. Stuff like this keeps happening. In 2007-08, they blamed all the self-inflicted wounds on staffers. Now, those staffers have been replaced with Obama's old staffers and the mistakes keep happening. At some point, people need to realize Hillary is the problem and no amount of staffing changes is going to fix that.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
11. You missed the point. The fact is, negative press and some kind of faux scandal are not unexpected.
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 02:04 PM
Aug 2015

That's why the odds on Hillary haven't changed much. Nobody expected the press to love her and the GOP not to cook up some scandal. Nobody expected her to run unopposed.

The point is, despite what seems like bad press, she's still the favorite, and being the favorite doesn't mean never having any ups and downs.

 

Picking Dem

(106 posts)
18. Polls will drop dramatically once Clinton starts making more public appearances
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 03:00 PM
Aug 2015

And people are done with their summer vacation and ready to dive into the election season.

This is a repeat of 2008, and Clinton's tactics aren't working AGAIN.

kenfrequed

(7,865 posts)
37. Her strategists are gambling.
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 11:30 AM
Aug 2015

They don't want her too exposed and want to have absolute messaging and media discipline. I imagine they figure that they will be able to construct the impregnable candidate this way. It really is sort of the strategy a front runner often takes. On this score I cannot fault her.

However, the media has become voracioius and any news cycle where you are not either putting yourself out there or providing some major story is one in which they will find (or invent) one.

 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
39. Its completely opposite of 2008. In 2008, Clinton spent a ton of money early and ran out.
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 12:28 PM
Aug 2015

She is trying to do the exact opposite now by not doing a lot of campaigning.

There is virtually nothing correct in what you wrote.

Cosmocat

(14,566 posts)
24. Or, you just dont want to hear what he is saying
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 07:58 AM
Aug 2015

1 the email thing is like 1000 other contrived, stupid, overblown non stories ...
2 which is standard operating procedure for any strnog front runner
3 which is standard operating procedure for any strong front runner
4 if you WANT to see what you want to see

He just goes by the numbers and the dismisal of his analysis of this race is the same as the dismisal of his analysis of 2010 here.

Bernie can be heady stuff, but he has a MUCH longer shot than people caught up in the moment want to reconcile.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
40. Hillary's stance on the environement is not what her supporters think it is.
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 12:36 PM
Aug 2015

Real News has a couple of interviews with a reporter who has investigated the role of the State Department under her leadership in privatizing Mexico's oil and gas industry. It looks really bad. The privatization takes profit away from the poor, needy Mexican people and their government and allows private companies to "invest" and glean that profit. The deal also promotes increased use of fossil fuels. That means less investment in alternative energy. That will hurt us, our children and our grandchildren and the generations after them if such generations still exist.

It's pretty shameful. I strongly suggest DUers watch the Real News videos on this subject.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017286974

Watch both halves of the interview.

We cannot compromise on the environment any more. Sucking every cubic centimeter that we can of gas and oil from Mother Earth is not an answer.

Hillary is in big with Wall Street because she makes unconscionable compromises and does not speak out and act against crimes against humanity, and that is what this thoughtless exploitation of the earth's resources and murderous thrusting of carbon dioxide into our atmosphere are.

We cannot afford the reckless environmental policies of the past even if it costs us some of the comfort level in our standard of living. We are like addicts who just have to have that last hit or drink or drag even if it is killing us.

It is so hard to deal with addiction. And we are an addicted culture -- still -- to oil and gas, coal and substances that spew disproportionate amounts of carbon dioxide into our environment.

This is an emotional issue for me. I have a friend who is dying of lung cancer after a lifetime of smoking. She is still smoking. And then I look at our society, and I see that we, too, are still smoking.

Hillary is still smoking when it comes to the environment. We cannot afford to compromise on the environment any more.

I trust that Sanders will be a tougher negotiator on many issues including the environment.

Please watch the video.

DanTex

(20,709 posts)
10. Good article. Essentially, there have been some ups and downs, but those were already "priced in" to
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 02:02 PM
Aug 2015

her status as favorite, which is why the odds of her winning haven't changed much. Nobody is surprised that there is some kind of scandal, or that there is a challenger who could possibly win a could of primaries.

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
13. Sounds like Nate is a Hillary supporter. He didn't mention the negative coverage of Sanders eg.
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 02:15 PM
Aug 2015

And there were two polls showing Bernie ahead of Clinton btw. Neither, according to 'conventional wisdom' matter!

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
15. What was the second one? I only know about the NH poll that was 37-44
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 02:45 PM
Aug 2015

And I can't find any other state or national poll that has Bernie ahead.

And Nate is a data fan, first and foremost. His point of that predictive markets have barely budged on Clinton's chances in the past year, because events that have occurred so far have been predictable and accounted for in the market.

sabrina 1

(62,325 posts)
16. The Iowa Straw poll this weekend.
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 02:46 PM
Aug 2015

As for the markets being predictive of anything, I prefer to place my 'bets' on the people. Nate needs to do both, most of US are not part of the great gambling casino on Wall St and don't expect them to 'move' on their preferred candidates.

The people, otoh, have been waiting a long time for a candidate who is addressing the issues THEY want to hear, and are increasingly, as they learn about him, placing their bets on him.

Wall St is obviously hearing what it wants to hear from Clinton, that's how I interpret their 'non budging' on the outcome.

There's a new market in town. And now it has a voice.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
17. The state fair straw "poll" was not a poll and had about as much real world meaning
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 02:52 PM
Aug 2015

As a poll taken on DU.

So there is one poll where Bernie was ahead. Good, glad I didn't overlook any.

 

Picking Dem

(106 posts)
19. Right. All the Iowans who visited the state fair aren't real voters
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 03:01 PM
Aug 2015

and should be summarily dismissed, so says a Clinton supporter.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
20. You got me, that is exactly what I said. Wait, no it isn't
Mon Aug 17, 2015, 03:41 PM
Aug 2015

But I sure am dismissing the State Fair "poll". Just like I will dismiss the straw poll at movie theaters next year and every single " Who would you vote for?" poll on DU.

emulatorloo

(44,133 posts)
38. The Iowa State Fair poll is not a scientific poll. It is for fun, run by a TV station.
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 12:12 PM
Aug 2015

Nor is it the same thing as the Iowa Ames/Straw poll scientific, which is a Republican only poll. Also unscientific.

Bernie is going to do very well here in Iowa. He's gonna win or come in a very close second place.

But citing the fair poll and Ames/Straw Polls is not a great way to make a convincing argument.

Cosmocat

(14,566 posts)
25. This sounds like a republican
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 08:02 AM
Aug 2015

Slander the messabger who has the temerity to communicate a stongly data based analysis because reality does not match with what you want to believe.

Gothmog

(145,344 posts)
26. The media will do it best to make news and show that there is really a race when there is not
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 08:12 AM
Aug 2015

Sanders is a nice man but has no chance of being the nominee

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
41. Don't be so certain.
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 01:24 PM
Aug 2015

This election is unique. I have never seen anything like the way Sanders has come out of nowhere and acquired such a large following.

The reason for it is, in my view, that we are in a time of great change.

Technology has moved fast over the past 20 years. Incredibly fast.

Jobs that existed and paid well 10 years ago are disappearing because computers have diminished the need for many clerical workers. Even in industry, computers are replacing people.

When you get a revolution in industry (think the industrial revolution), politics change. The populist movement of the late 19th century occurred following the big surge in the industrial revolution.

We have had a big surge in the automation, computer, artificial intelligence revolution. It is just beginning. And we need new social structures to deal with it.

Job security is a thing of the past. The ability, physical, intellectual and financial, to learn new skills and ideas quickly is becoming more and more necessary to just survive in our world.

Hillary is weak when it comes to talking about job security. She refuses to take a stand on the TPP, but we know where she stands. She headed the State Department when it was written.

The stock market, too, is kind of a thing of the past. It used to be that a person sitting at home could maybe buy stocks in a company like AT&T or IBM or some major company and 20 years later, find that he had done well. Now, the big investment firms play around with shorts and longs and all kinds of fast trades and just suck the money out of the stock market leaving poor, misguided "day traders" at home, dizzy, sucking their thumbs, crying real tears and wondering where their money went. There are fewer day traders now than there were maybe 5-10 years ago, but the non-stop investment advice on TV and in the mail are still a part of our lives as are the wonderful offers for still more loans even though most of us don't have incomes secure enough to permit us to borrow.

Hillary is practically a tool of the big hedge fund managers and leading brokerage houses. Good for them. With Hillary, they have someone they can "work with" as they might say. She is amenable to them. She listens to their ideas, curries favor with them, flirts with them by standing in front of them giving pretty speeches. She is not going to come down hard and regulate Wall Street as it needs to be regulated. Wall Street knows that. Bernie supporters know that. (Even if she doesn't admit it to herself or her fans.)

This new reality calls for change. Bernie is the only one presidential candidate getting voter attention who is offering ideas about how we could change our financial culture so that it secures and serves more of us.

Wall Street certainly has no answers.

Americans feel squeezed. The "globalization" of the production of goods and services frees companies to roam and push down the value of labor. It chains American workers who, just to barely survive on wages that are in terms of today's dollars and benefits, lower than those of their parents' generation, buy mostly imported consumer goods (other than food -- and even imported food) from big box stores. We Americans watch as our jobs are sucked out of our country and the wage elevator that took us, American workers, up to a livable wage back in the 1950s descends at a faster and faster rate.

We need a social welfare system that helps us recover from frequent job losses and lower wages. That is why Bernie's "free college" which we can assume includes free retraining for everyone including people working in our fast fading industrial sector when our jobs disappear. Unemployment checks are no longer enough. We have to be able to reboot our professional lives almost as quickly as we reboot our computers. One career, maybe two or three employers over a lifetime is no longer a realistic expectation.

That's why the crowds roar when Bernie talks about free college. It isn't just young kids who need tuition-free opportunities for education. It is virtually every working person who will at some point in his or her life probably have to reboot and re-educate or re-train.

We Americans, no matter how capable, no matter how strong, no matter how well trained or educated, do not have the ability to enter the global markets and look for jobs or barter for better wages. My husband and I actually did go to other countries to get jobs when we couldn't find them here, but most Americans can't do that. They don't speak languages. They have family obligations here. And I would not advise anyone to try it. It is not as easy to live in a foreign culture or country -- to immigrate if you will even for just some years -- as Donald Trump seems to think it is. It's really, really hard. It is unrealistic for most Americans.

But not at all unrealistic for multinational corporations who, just to insure themselves as they roam the world to conquer new markets and new work forces, intimidate governments into signing trade agreements that displace democratic institutions with corporate arbitration courts.

That, too, is creating a social and economic y crisis that Bernie is responding to. No one else is responding to that social crisis, that insecurity in American families.

Then there is the environment. Americans have yet to discover how dismally weak Hillary really is on this issue.

It isn't that Hillary is weak. It is that she is part of the political machine that is ignoring these problems that will, if not dealt with openly, destroy American society.

And then there are the family issues. Here, Bernie and Hillary may be in closer agreement. But again, Hillary's ideas of solutions, because her in-ness, her membership in the D.C. and Wall Street above-the-crowd crowd blinds her, cannot really appreciate. We need a $15 per hour wage. No one can survive on less than that if they have a family. That is only about $31,200 per year if you work a full 40 hour week or $23,400 if you work only a 30 hour week. And if you are doing temporary work, it will be considerably less.

Hillary, I believe, has not yet stated what she thinks the minimum wage should be. I'd like to know this. She needs to name a number. She needs to name a number that would enable a working person to pay rent, bills and feed a couple of kids. Anything less than that won't do. Unless she wants to supplement the sub-subsistance wages with government assistance.

I could go on and on, issue after issue, Hillary is either non-committal or downright wrong. She is just too in with the in crowd that gives tax breaks to oli and gas and wealthy CEO and hedge fund managers. Wants to destroy our democracy in order to protect Wall Street and the 401(K)s or retirement funds of members of Congress.

Oh, and Hillary is weak on Social Security too. (Unless she has evolved on this one too?) Bernie wants to expand Social Security and never, never privatize it. Hillary is downright weak on this issue which is a life or death issue for Americans.

Bernie wants to raise the cap and draw Social Security taxes from first all income up to $500,000 and then all income. Hillary in 2008 argued against raising the cap. Have you evolved, Hillary? No doubt her Wall Street pals like Pete Peterson have a privatization plan they would love to sell her. No. Wall Street cannot be trusted with our Social Security dollars. No way.

On race, Bernie is handing the stage to supporters of Black Lives Matter and promising to be the strongest advocate possible for changing our racists police forces and our justice system.

Hillary -- second rate on this at best. Taking money from the private prison corporations. Even if she gives it back, and she is probably too proud to return it, it once again, like her vote on the Iraq War Resolution, shows her poor judgment. Besides, no way would she risk offending the secret racists in high places who donate to her campaign in order to institute meaningful change in terms of Black Lives Matter issues.

Bernie is just a so much stronger candidate in terms of responding to what is on the minds of Americans right now that I don't see how Hillary can possibly win.

And then there are the many nagging questions about Hillary's personal judgment and her many scandals. And I am virtually certain that as the texts of her e-mails as Secretary of State and the donations to her foundation from the very countries and leaders she was dealing with and the role of our diplomatic corps and our allies in the funding of ISIS become apparent and are publicized, the Hillary candidacy will be in shambles.

Let's hope that Americans realize all this before the Iowa and New Hampshire primary caucus and election. As for South Carolina, we shall see. The South lost its textile industry and is governed by anti-union racists. We shall see who wins there.

restorefreedom

(12,655 posts)
28. so its the media's fault she is less popular
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 08:55 AM
Aug 2015

and it doesn't represent the reality of her inevitability.



got it.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
29. No, his point is that political markets haven't budged on her chances that much
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 10:06 AM
Aug 2015

Because predictive markets already had built into their price that her popularity would decrease from her SoS highs, that some kind of scandal would probably be ginned up and that a primary challenger was likely. So while the media is going gonzo to make a horse race, the handicappers aren't seeing anything that makes them change their predictions.

Nate's point in essence is that everything that has happened so fast is predictable and following the pattern established when Bradley ran against Gore.

Romulox

(25,960 posts)
32. He's a statistician. He needs to stop complaining that the test subjects aren't doing it right. nt
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 10:21 AM
Aug 2015

sufrommich

(22,871 posts)
35. Not really.He's a strong believer in "numbers don't lie"
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 10:30 AM
Aug 2015

No matter his commentary,his ability to predict outcomes is well respected,and those predictions change as the polls change.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)
36. That's the opposite of his point. He is saying the test subjects are doing exactly what is predicted
Tue Aug 18, 2015, 10:31 AM
Aug 2015

And that it also has a predictable endgame.

In other words, 2016 isn't seeing a cataclysmic shift; it is following a pattern that has been predicted by the political markets since candidates announced their intentions to run.

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