North Carolina poll: Romney 50%, Obama 45% (SurveyUSA)

[Marzupialis]

Among registered voters, June 29, July 1st: http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/chart2.pdf

Caution: Civitas calls itself "North Carolina's Conservative Voice". It cannot be discarded that SurveyUSA wanted to please those who paid for this poll. http://www.nccivitas.org/

[Rambis]

1. .....

[Lucky Luciano]

19. Mr. Hand!!!!

[Chorophyll]

2. And?

[WI_DEM]

3. Mitt is getting 64% of the hispanic vote and 14% of the black vote?

I think Obama got 95% of the black vote in 2008 & the hispanic vote (while small) isn't going for Mitt. Also I see that the black vote surveyed was 20% which seems low for NC. I'd say, all in all, it's still tight in NC.

[yellowcanine]

4. Looks as if the Hispanic numbers are flipped. If they are correct there are some

serious problems with the poll. No way is Mitt getting even 40% of the Hispanic vote.

[WI_DEM]

5. yes, and I think they under polled black voters. At 20% instead it should be

at least 27 or 28 percent.

[Rambis]

23. Hispanics are not voting for Mitt "he is not a christian"

Just sayin

[Avalux]

6. Bullshit. n/t

[Capn Sunshine]

8. To elaborate on this point

Survey methods: Call LAND LINES, and speak to whoever picks up (in the daytime!)
Then get them to agree to a survey.

You see where this is going? Think That sample is a tad skewed?

The fact that this tiny slice is basically 50-50 is good news to our campaign. We know the NEWS guys need to keep it close- horseraces =viewers.

Now get to work. Every town in the USA has unregistered voters who need to be contacted!

[LiberalCatholic]

29. WE need to keep it close.

We need people to realize that they HAVE to vote. If we don't get numbers out then we will not win...

[Arkana]

7. 64% of Hispanics?

This poll smells like shit.

[dmosh42]

9. I believe this is a part of the "rigging" process, along with fixed e-machines.

[AverageJoe90]

10. Same with a lot of other polls with Romney ahead, too, it seems. nt

[Cali_Democrat]

11. Totally agree. n/t

[jenmito]

12. "Caution: Civitas calls itself 'North Carolina's Conservative Voice'." So why did you post this? nt

[Marzupialis]

14. I post it because it may be an accurate poll

I said it cannot be discarded that SurveyUSA tried to please the person who paid for this poll. I know you wish I had said this poll is "definitely" inaccurate but that was not the case. Other polls will have to confirm this result. The polls are not in yet because the future cannot be predicted. Get it?

[jenmito]

15. As others pointed out, "Mitt is getting 64% of the hispanic vote and 14% of the black vote"

in this poll. It's obviously garbage.

[Marzupialis]

22. Let's do the math. Let's pretend Obama had 70% of the Latino vote in that poll

...in that same poll, while realizing that only 6% of respondents were Hispanic.

What would be the outcome of the poll then? That's right. Almost unchanged, because the Hispanic statistic is subject to large margin of error, which doesn't matter much because very few Hispanics are registered.

[and-justice-for-all]

13. Garbage...nt

[Kteachums]

16. This is scary! Is money buying the election polls?

[Rosanna Lopez]

17. Isn't it a Civitas poll, rather than a SurveyUSA poll?

Why are you calling it a SurveyUSA poll when it's a Civitas poll? Up until now they have always been 2 distinct pollsters, as far as I know.

RCP calls this a Civitas poll with an (R) next to it. SurveyUSA has done its own polling for North Carolina in previous months.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html

[Marzupialis]

21. No. Civitas is to SurveyUSA what DailyKos is to PPP

Civitas=Daily Kos (they pay for it)
PPP=SurveyUSA (they conduct the poll).

[BluegrassDem]

18. By the way, this poll was way off in the N.C. polls in 2008

FWIW. Actually, I believe they were the least accurate pollster of the one that polled N.C. in 2008. So I wouldn't put a lot of weight with them.

[Marzupialis]

20. SurveyUSA had McCain up +1, he lost by 0.4%

May I ask where you got the information that they were "the least accurate pollster" in NC?

[greiner3]

24. To be fair to SurveyUSA;

Nate Silver gives them a +2.4% in polls, at least in House contests.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

[CobaltBlue]

25. Male vs. Female

Break down the gender vote.

In 2008, when North Carolina was a Democratic pickup for Barack Obama, he received 43% of male voters and won as a likewise pickup 55% of female voters. That delivered the state by a margin of D+0.33%.

[aquart]

26. And among LIKELY voters?

[patrice]

27. There are so many ways to engineer polls now. And it is also a commonplace that you can interview

the very same people you just polled and ask the same questions, but allow more open ended responses from them and they DO reverse their stated poll answers very frequently. That is, in an interview, they'll say the opposite of how they answered most poll questions.

[Rosanna Lopez]

28. Age breakdown

I was just looking at the poll and there are some odd things about the breakdown by age.

It shows Obama's 2nd best-category after younger voters 18-34 is 65+. Obama does worse with the 2 categories in the middle, 35-49 and 50-64 than he does with 65+.

Isn't that almost unheard of for a Democrat to do that well with the oldest voters, and to do better with them than the ones in the middle-aged categories?

Take a look at this:

1. 18-34 = 59%

2. 35-49 = 35%

3. 50-64 = 43%

4. 65+ = 45%