Bernie's odds are improving, bookies now have him between 6-1 and 8-1.

[DanTex]

A few months ago it was 10-1 or worse, and he was behind Biden.
Biden is now between 8-1 and 10-1.
O'Malley is pretty much out of the picture, behind even Elizabeth Warren.
Hillary still the huge favorite.

If we take the average of 7-1, that would give Bernie a 12.5% of winning, while Biden with 9-1 would have a 10% chance. I'd say those might be a bit high, although there's always the "anything can happen" factor, so maybe the numbers are about right. But in order for it to be anyone but Hillary, something catastrophic would probably have to happen to her campaign, in which case it would be a close call between Sanders and Biden.


http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/democrat-candidate

[thomservo]

1. It would be interesting to see...

what Clinton's odds were at this point in 07.

[DanTex]

2. That would be interesting. I couldn't find bookie numbers, but I did find a rough

chart of the intrade numbers from the 2008 primary, which are kind of the same thing.

Looks like Obama got up to almost 40% in the summer of 2007, then in the fall he sagged in the polls and dropped down to like 10 or 20%, while Hillary went up to 70% in late 2007, before Obama came back in 2008. I remember his drop in late 2007, because I was an early Obama supporter and donor, and for a while it wasn't looking good.

[thomservo]

4. very interesting.

Thanks

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Intrade went out of business because they were not liquid.

My gf and I made a bit of money on the CA 08 primary.

As I understand it you can only bet on politics at offshore sites. I don't understand how the Iowa Electronics Market does it.

[DanTex]

11. Yes, that's true, the liquidity was always low. Except for presidential races and a few other big

items, there was almost no liquidity. And even in the big markets, something like $100K could have moved the line dramatically.

[Romulox]

3. Drip, drip, drip, Ms. Clinton... nt

[onehandle]

5. So still virtually impossible for her to lose.

Good to know.

[thomservo]

6. Yes...

like in 07.

[onehandle]

7. Welcome to DU.

There is no Obama.

[artislife]

8. No

Just a plain speaking man who has ignited the crowds.

It's deja vu all over again!

[DanTex]

9. The odds imply she's got about an 80% chance, which might be a bit low.

Still, she's in a better far position than she was at this point in 2007. In fact, despite the recent "Bernie surge", she's significantly higher now than at her very peak odds in the 2008 primary.

At this point, for her to lose, it would probably have to be something cataclysmic, either a major scandal (which, despite the hopes of Bernistas, the email thing is definitely not), a health thing, or something like that. If that happens, I think that Biden would probably enter and win.

[onehandle]

12. I could not have said it better myself. nt