Electoral Calculation - The Base or the Undecideds?

[el_bryanto]

Do you think that this next election will be decided by the two parties bases or by the undecideds, including those who don't normally vote? This is an interesting and important question because it dictates strategy.

You see some strategists who take the position that the key goal is to fire up the base and get them to the polls, either because the undecideds aren't that large a group these days or because they aren't likely to vote in huge number anyway.

Other strategists focus on crafting a campaign that pushes past party loyalty to hopefully inspire those who don't normally vote or who are undecided to join the cause.

Bryant

7 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	This election will be decided by the base(s).
	0 (0%)
	This election will be largely decided by the base(s).
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	Both the base(s) and the undecideds will move this election
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	This election will be largely decided by the undecideds
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	This election will be decided by the undecideds
	1 (14%)
	Why do you post such bullshit polls?!?!
	4 (57%)
	I like to vote!
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[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Elections are more about mobilization than they are persuasion.

It is more efficacious to identify potential voters who agree with you and get them to vote than it is to persuade voters who are disinclined to vote for you to vote for you.

[stevenleser]

2. The undecideds who normally vote will decide the election. nt

[cascadiance]

3. That 19% that felt drawn to Perot in 92, and the young who feel screwed will decide this election...

I think they will speak out, along with many independents that have perhaps stayed out of recent elections will come out strong if they see a voice for them in this election, which they feel has been lost since 1992 (or perhaps since 1980) to them.

[Stallion]

4. Is It Undecideds? Or Independents?

we live in a country that really has 3 parties

Democrats 35%
Republicans 30%
Independents 30%
Undecideds 5%

[el_bryanto]

6. I thought about adding a bit to talk about undecideds

Which really includes several groups. It includes groups like Reagan Democrats or Liberal Republicans (insofar as they exist anymore) i.e. individuals who are nominally part of a party but can vote the other way. It also includes the independents or third party supporters who can go either way. And it includes those who don't usually vote who might be inspired by the right candidate.

Bryant

[NYCButterfinger]

5. Undecideds and the base decides elections

You can't alienate swing voters in Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Virginia, etc. However, you can't alienate the base of the Democratic Party. Bernie has to appeal to Independent voters.