CNN / ORC Poll: Clinton remains strong in Iowa

[brooklynite]

The first CNN/ORC poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton firmly in the lead in the state that kicks off the nation's nominating contests, holding a 50% to 31% lead over upstart Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Vice President Joe Biden, who has yet to decide whether to make a run for presidency, lands in third place with 12%, with the rest of the field at 1% or less.

The slightly-tighter-than-national race reflects two broad divides among Iowa's Democratic voters: a gender gap and an ideological split. Among women, Clinton tops Sanders by more than 30 points, 58% to 26%. Among men, the two are even: 38% back Clinton, 37% Sanders. Likewise, among the party's moderates, 57% back Clinton, 21% Sanders, while liberals split 46% for Clinton to 41% for Sanders. And liberals are most apt to say they are firm in their choice: Fully 42% say they've definitely decided whom to support, compared with 30% overall.

All told, nearly half of Iowa's likely Democratic caucus-goers say they've either made up their minds about the race or are leaning toward a candidate (46%), and among that group, Clinton stands at 53%. Sanders jumps to 41% among those who have made up their minds and despite not having made up his own mind about running, Biden has 5%. Former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley rounds out the list at 1%.

Should Biden decide not to run, the poll suggests Clinton would get a bigger boost than Sanders. Reallocating Biden's supporters to their second choice candidate, 58% would back Clinton, 32% Sanders, 2% former O'Malley, 1% former Virginia senator Jim Webb and less than 1% would back former Rhode Island governor Lincoln Chafee.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/iowa-poll-clinton-sanders-iowa/index.html

[Historic NY]

1. Wait they keep saying its not so....

thats the point Biden isn't likely to throw support to Sanders and thats plain and simple.

[DCBob]

2. Winning Iowa would be nice boost going into NH.

That might be enough to put out the Bern!

[JI7]

6. if he can have a decent showing in south carolina

That would be the real test

[DCBob]

7. I predict Hillary will win SC easily.

Bernie doesn't have much appeal below the Mason Dixon.

[JI7]

8. i would like to see him start campaigning in SC

[rocktivity]

3. A 20-point gap? It was twice that a few when all this started.

And he's got six months to close it even more...

rocktivity

[magicmama]

4. And this gap is even a smaller one..

Than when it started, and the debates aren't even but 60 days away. I do fear that DNC and Clinton's strategy of pushing the debates as far as possible is going to backfire on them, badly. Bernie crossed the boundary in NH this week leading Clinton 44-37, and outside of the margin of error. One can say that Bernie will do the same in Iowa in the next few weeks, and a domino effect will happen with victories after victories in key states.

I'm no longer hearing the word 'inevitable' - now we're talking a real primary.

[ibegurpard]

5. 5 months to go!

[Bjorn Against]

9. The last poll out of Iowa that I saw had Bernie at 25%

This poll has him at 31%, that is a nice jump. Between this and New Hampshire I think it is quite clear that the people who were claiming he had plateaued were wrong.

[K lib]

10. 54 % still trying to decide

nt

[Joe the Revelator]

11. Thats actually a pretty impressive jump for Bernie....makes it an actual race. nt

[restorefreedom]

12. what this article does not flesh out

is that bernie has been closing fast in iowa. started off much lower.

chris cilizza said today that if bernie wins nh and iowa, it could be game over.

and it's only august