2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAlmost Every Major Poll Shows Bernie Sanders Challenging or Defeating Clinton and Republicans.
And this erudite article explains why:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/almost-every-major-poll-shows-bernie-sanders_b_7937906.html
Ironically, there are certain liberal voters in America today more interested in sharing memes on social media (mocking their political rivals), than in actually rallying around a politician who is a genuine and authentic embodiment of their acknowledged value system. To these people, Bernie Sanders can't possibly win, even though he championed gay rights when others needed to "evolve," and even though he voted against Iraq, when others deemed their vote a "mistake."
Luckily, there are a great many other voters willing to imagine a future without Wall Street greed and rampant income inequality. Fortunately, "Bernie Sanders Can Become President" has replaced "I like him but he can't win."
Democrats who are proud of their progressive values are filling arenas to hear Sanders speak in a direct manner (while others dodge questions) on contentious issues like Keystone XL and the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement. While the FBI is currently investigating the email security of one candidate, Bernie Sanders is narrowing Clinton's lead nationally and defeating Republicans in other polls. Like Brent Budowsky writes in The Hill:
The fact that Sanders beats Walker by six to seven points, depending on whether all voters or likely voters are counted -- a near-landslide margin in a general election -- makes it clear that the Sanders surge is more than a surge against Donald Trump, but move that makes him competitive with all Republican candidates.
Polls once extolling Hillary Clinton's enormous lead over Sanders are now dwindling for the same reason Sanders beats Republicans in various other polls: Americans have had enough of dynasties, scandals, wars, and Wall Street corruption. I will be voting for Bernie Sanders because I too have had enough of endless wars, and Bernie says "I'll be damned" if more Americans are sent back to fight in the Middle East. I'll also be voting for Sanders because like the polls illustrating his lightning fast surge, more and more Americans have had enough with a two-party system that doesn't give people a choice. I want my Democratic nominee to vote against counterinsurgency wars and vehemently oppose environmental disasters in the making like Keystone XL, not evolve towards the most politically expedient position available at the time.
Persondem
(1,936 posts)Not sure what polls the OP is referencing (no link), but the latest polls show HRC well above 50% and Bernie around 20%. It's been that way for a month now.
The "Bernie surge" versus HRC seems to have played out. Nice attempt at spinning it otherwise though.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)And on favorability her numbers are plummeting while his are increasing as more people get to know him.
But these polls are not very reliable since they are not able to poll all the Indepenennts joining Bernie's campaign but not yet registered as Dems. Nor the non voters his campaign is targeting as they are not registered yet at all, though the campaign is working to help them get registered in states that have closed primaries.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)still_one
(92,315 posts)polls show Hillary ahead by a large margin for the Democratic nomination, In Iowa, and Hillary is ahead according to the lastest polling in NH by 6.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Quinniapics recent polls have been outliers from the other pollsters, and the swing state poll that the OP links to quinniapic the details show an oversampling of republicans in their numbers.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)But don't worry we love you anyways.
still_one
(92,315 posts)daleanime
(17,796 posts)but we both know any kind of discussion is unlike to change any ones mind here.
So if it's alright, I'll just continue to work for my candidate of choice and toward a better future.
Sorry about that.
still_one
(92,315 posts)anyway. Trends also are a little misleading at this time. PPP was the most accurate pollster in 2012, Gallop was one of the most inaccurate
Some of these pollsters assume in their model that republicans and conservatives are more inclined to vote than Democrats and progressives. I think that is what screwed up Gallop in 2012.
Also the way they ask the question is important. A perfect example is the polling on the Iran deal:
"In the least surprising development ever, todays Quinnipiac poll finding a majority against the Iran deal generated a whole bunch of twitter traffic from political commentator types.
But a new NBC News poll also came out today, and thus far (also shockingly) its getting less attention: It finds 35 percent of Americans support the deal; 33 percent are against it; and 32 percent are undecided.
Whats significant here is that, unlike many other polls, the NBC poll offered respondents the choice of saying they are not informed enough to have an opinion."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/08/03/what-does-the-american-public-really-think-of-the-iran-deal/
I have no doubt that folks can find a poll that suits there liking
MisterP
(23,730 posts)game-players--and that includes the "political glam" journalists as well as the pols themselves