2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRed Shift - important and revealing graph.
If it feels as if our best interests are not met with the Supreme Court...it is because they are not.
Full article here.
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/06/anthony-kennedys-swing-vote-days-are-long-gone
unblock
(52,332 posts)"our side" is strongly bunched around zero.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,022 posts)Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Before even getting to the issue of whether or not the Democratic appointees are progressive enough, the problem is that it doesn't really matter what they do anyway so long as the Republicans continue to have that 5-4 Majority. It has been like that for a couple of decades now. That is why Obama and the Democrats need to make sure people realize that the Supreme Court is yet another reason for voting a Democratic President back in.
If there is a Republican President, there could be more Republican appointees in the next 4 years and we could end up with a 6-3 Republican majority. For the first time in many years, we have a chance of electing a 2nd Democratic President to 2 terms and perhaps getting the opportunity to break the 5-4 majority in the years to come if we get lucky and one of the Republicans has to be replaced.
Remember, ever since the FDR/Truman period ended, most Presidents in the 2nd half of the 20th Century/early 21st have been Republican. Bill Clinton is the only Democratic President to be re-elected since FDR. That is why it has been so hard to establish a Democratic Majority on the Court. There have been many more opportunities for Republicans to appoint justices to the Court. One of the most unfortunate examples was when Thurgood Marshall left in the late 1980's and George Bush I replaced him with Clarence Thomas. Had Marshall been replaced by a Democrat, we would have a majority on the Court now.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)If Obama gets re-elected I think he will only get a chance to replace one unless something drastic like a health problem occurs with Kennedy or Scalia. They would try to hang on until 2017 hoping a Republican will get elected. I think the only one Obama will replace is Ginsberg which only gets us a younger liberal justice, but still the same 5-4 split.
That's why the Democrats need to win in 2016 as well.
a kennedy
(29,711 posts)D*mn, we need a lefty.....don't we??? edit for grammar
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)Well, based on Obama's track record to date, and the fact that he is a centrist Democrat and farther to the right than FDR, he will probably appoint a centrist Justice. And he would probably also feel the need to be 'bi-partisan' and nominate someone that is not too far to the left for the poor Republicans to be offended by.
But perhaps it could turn out better than that and in his 2nd term he will actually start nominating some liberal Democrats instead of centrist Democrats.
DFW
(54,445 posts)If Bader-Ginsburg retires, he'll replace her with a reliable progressive. If it's Scalia or Kennedy, he might pick a more moderate, either to placate the Republicans in the Senate or to ensure a smoother confirmation. It would be one of the biggest mistakes he could make. The last Republican appointees have ALL been radical rightists. I'm not saying Obama should pick Angela Davis, but he should pick another Steve Breyer if he gets the chance--and pick TWO Steve Bryers if he gets two chances.
Rosanna Lopez
(308 posts)That's always my fear about Obama - he always insists on being so 'centrist' and 'bi-partisan' and 'reaching across the aisle.'
He always wants to compromise and work with the Republicans, and that's not something you can do. They certainly are never willing to move to the center or move to the left. They don't ever appoint moderates - only conservatives.
So why shouldn't the Democrats try to appoint the most liberal justices possible? I will be very angry with Obama if in order to be 'fair' he chooses to replace a conservative with a 'moderate'.
former9thward
(32,082 posts)It comes from the very nature of law and precedent. Law is made to built up the status quo and its institutions. It is why liberals who are appointed to judicial positions tend to get more conservative as time goes on.