Rasmussen: Romney ahead by 13 in Arizona

[Rosanna Lopez]

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Arizona: [Romney +13]

Romney vs. Obama

Rasmussen Reports

Romney 54

Obama 41

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/arizona/election_2012_arizona_president

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Not a bad number for Obama in Arizona since it's not as big of a lead as a Republican nominee should have, and since it's Rasmussen it may be exaggerating Romney's support by several points. Nevertheless, even with the large majority of Latino support in Arizona, I don't think Obama can win it this year. But if the Democrats can have a decent result, it may raise the chances of a win in 2016 or beyond.

[alittlelark]

1. That poll is a crock of shit. eom.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

2. Wasn't Romney only up by 3 in some other poll?

Yeah, Rasmussen, I know

[Rosanna Lopez]

3. Arizona polls to date

Here are the other Arizona polls to date. There were a couple showing a small Obama lead earlier in the year, but the last number of polls have shown Romney in the lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/az/arizona_romney_vs_obama-1757.html

What's interesting is that Latino Decisions reported in their polling last week (which I posted on another thread) that Latino support for Obama in Arizona is 74%. The question is, what is the strength of Obama's non-Latino support in Arizona? Latinos can't deliver the state to Obama by themselves.

[WI_DEM]

10. Actually one recent poll had Romney only up by 3 (last week) which is within the margin of error.

[alittlelark]

4. As a Lawyer, what is your field of expertise?

[Rosanna Lopez]

6. Family law : )

Marriage, divorce, co-habitation agreements, pre-nuptial agreements & child custody.

I've always found family law much more interesting and relevant to society than corporate law, for example. Family law is a reflection of social issues, men/women, gender, conflict etc.

And of course I'm reminded on a daily basis that it is heterosexual couples who have damaged the marriage institution with their multiple divorces & divisive child custody arguments, not the gay couple across the street that wants to get married.

That's one of the things I most despise about the hypocritical socially conservative wing of the Republican Party (eg. Newt Gingrich). They go around talking about the sanctity of marriage, morality, etc. and oppose gay relationships, meanwhile it's people like that who are causing the most harm to children!

[alittlelark]

9. Too bad you aren't in the N.Ca. Bay Area...

I could use some advice before I get the ball rolling.

[OffWithTheirHeads]

5. Funny, I have yet to see a Rmoney sticker anywhere

although I daily run into Obama stickers.

[blkmusclmachine]

7. Rasmussen.

'Nuff said.

[demwing]

8. But it's not just Rasmussen

As another DUer already posted above, RCP shows nearly all AZ polls favor Romney, to varying degrees.

Plus, this poll comes in the wake of the SCOTUS decision. Anger makes people active, and more likely to respond to the poll. At least they'll have some time to chill B4 the election...

[Rosanna Lopez]

11. Romney has an 87% chance of winning

I don't think the Democrats should give up on Arizona - it's just that it's unlikely they can win it this year. Bill Clinton's win in 1996 proves it is doable again with the right candidate and combination of factors all coming together in the same year. The Latino population has also grown since Clinton won and so there is a larger source of Democratic votes there than there was 16 years ago.

However, Nate Silver currently gives Romney an 87% chance of winning Arizona, so that's why I think it may have to wait until 2016 or beyond. I think the problem may be the contentious atmosphere of 'us' versus 'them' that has developed in AZ. Obama is viewed by much of the non-Latino population as being out of touch with the border/immigration issue or just plain anti-AZ. That's why I think it may take a different Democratic nominee to win AZ.

It also appears that Carmona is not polling as strongly against Flake as people had hoped, but we'll see if that tightens over the Summer.

[BklnDem75]

14. The larger numbers are from repuke pollsters

The non-partisan polls are within the margin of error. I'll worry when those numbers show a wider gap.

[demwing]

17. Don't worry about them at all

Anything invested in AZ right now is done to force Romney to defend a state that should easily go Red.

We will not win AZ this year, but we must make Romney fight for it.

That's not to say AZ won't be in play in 2016, maybe even 2014...

[fujiyama]

12. Does anyone REALLY believe Obama could carry this state?

If he's lucky, the end margin will be him losing between 5-8%, meaning it's a state worth looking into in the long run and there are certainly some House races worth investing but otherwise, unless this is an Obama landslide (more than '08 EVs), AZ is a long shot.

So while I'm somewhat doubtful that Romney will take AZ by a larger margin than McCain, I'm not convinced this state is a true toss up yet...

[CreekDog]

13. McCain only won it by 9 points in 2008, and only lost Hispanics by 15 points, so...

In 2012, when there are more Hispanics and when a non-Arizonan, a non-McCain is on the ballot...

You're damned right I expect it to be closer. In fact, we'll talk about how much closer it was, come November.

[Rosanna Lopez]

15. I found the poll showing Romney only ahead by +3

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/06/19/1101415/-Breaking-Presidential-Poll-Arizona-a-Statistical-Tie

Strong support from independent voters has Democratic candidates within striking distance of Republicans in Arizona. Recent polling from Project New America (PNA) shows President Obama trailing Mitt Romney by just 3 points in Arizona, and likely Democratic Senate nominee Richard Carmona trailing likely Republican nominee Jeff Flake by just 2 points.

The poll, which surveyed 791 likely Arizona voters from June 4-5, showed Mitt Romney with a 49-46 lead over Obama, and Jeff Flake with a 43-41 lead over Richard Carmona. Both races are within the poll’s +/-3.5% margin of error.

[Marzupialis]

16. PNA is a Democratic Party group

Rasmussen is a conservative hack, but let's not pit him against a polling firm with (D) next to it, if we want to be consistent regarding which pollsters have a dog in this fight.

[a kennedy]

18. I know it's Intrade, but this looks good to me....

55.5% chance POTUS will be re-elected. http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/ it was 53.5 before ACA upheld. the mitster is at 41.6%

[demwing]

19. Give it time, it will look even better

Romney has a VP pick to drag him down like an anchor, and at least 1 debate performance in which to embarrass himself. By October, that Intrade will be at 60-65% for Obama. Bookmark me.

[Rosanna Lopez]

20. It's not like it's 80%

Not bad, but not exactly a guarantee of being re-elected either.

It's not like Obama has the type of lead that Clinton had over Dole.

[ilikeitthatway]

21. Let's face facts

Arizona is so far-Right, it's classified as Crazyville USA.

Their governor had the audacity to point her finger in the face of the POTUS.

Then you have Sheriff Joe.

That state is nuts. Even the religious fundies have a hold on it. Their legislation is ridiculously unconstitutional.

While their poll may be bs, I wouldn't doubt that Romney has some sort of lead there considering how that state continuously votes in nuts.

[Rosanna Lopez]

22. Arizona not the most-right wing

But let's be fair to Arizona. It is not as far out there as some other states. Bill Clinton did win it in 1996, and Obama had a decent showing there in 2008 and is getting decent numbers in 2012.

It's not like it's Utah or Oklahoma where Obama is behind by 30 or 40 points and which no Democrat has won in half a century.

[jillan]

25. Arizona is not as RW as people think. It is broken down into thirds.

Repub/Dems/Ind pretty much even in this state with R's just a little bit higher.

And don't forget that Janet Napolitano was our Governor before Brewer. Janet easily won re-election in 2006.
When President Obama took her for Homeland Security, Brewer - as SoS - was next in line.

This is from January 2012:

[img][/img]

[Bake]

23. Guess what ... we're not going to win every state.

We're going to lose Mississippi, e.g. But I'm not losing sleep over it. I'd be shocked if we WON Arizona.

Arizona doesn't matter. Harsh to say, but it doesn't. We're not going to win every state.

Bake

[jillan]

24. I saw that - BUT a poll a couple of weeks ago from PPP (?) had Mitt up by 3 - so this Arizonan is

hoping beyond hope that Rasmussen is full of caca.

It's the down ballot that I worry about as much as the Presidential election - especially the Senate seat being vacated by Kyl.
It's been way too long since a Democrat represented Az in the Senate.

[CobaltBlue]

26. Scott Rasmussen: You are dismissed!

I don't recall responding to this.

I don't trust Scott Rasmussen and his Rasmussen Reports. In 2008, his polling firm trailed everyone else by pushing Ohio as a Republican hold for John McCain. Well, George W. Bush won it in 2004 by 2.11%, compared to nationally beating John Kerry by 2.46%. Given a near 10-point national shift away from incumbent White House party, no way was McCain going to hold the state.

Rasmussen Reports kept trying to say otherwise. It wasn't until October, Rasmussen finally came up with a poll showing Obama leading in the state. Well, it has come to my attention others have observed that Scott Rasmussen's firm does this regularly; inaccurate but suddenly more accurate once an election is nearing voting day.

This is enough for me to dismiss Rasmussen Reports.

[Rosanna Lopez]

27. Correct

It has an in-house bias towards Republicans, which Nate Silver documents at the NYT. I believe he also discovered major methodological problems with its polling in 2010.

I don't trust Rasmussen either. The point of posting this poll was not to assume this number is accurate, but to get a barometer of what the real number might be.

Btw, when is the media going to start calling out Rasmussen?