Clinton/Sanders in statistical dead heat in New Hamphire.

[Fawke Em]

The New Hampshire University and WMUR poll, released today, shows HRC at 42 percent and Sanders at 36 with the margin of error at 3.6 percent, but the kicker is the favorability ratings.





http://cola.unh.edu/survey-center/sanders-keeping-pace-clinton-new-hampshire-8415

And, before I hear how "awful" this poll is - it's not.

http://www.fosters.com/article/20121111/GJNEWS_01/121119896

On edit: I like posting state polls more than national polls. We elect presidents state by state, not nationally.

[onehandle]

1. I won't deny he has a chance to take one state.

Period.

[John Poet]

5. I won't deny that Hillary has a chance

to take one state as well.

Especially if her negative numbers keep going up....

[Ken Burch]

41. Why do you assume it's only one state?

Bernie's support is increasing everywhere. And there's nothing bad that can come of that.

[George II]

69. My feeling is Clinton has an outside chance of losing New Hampshire, will win both....

.....Iowa and South Carolina, then as we've seen in past campaigns, her competitors will "reassess their position and their base", and one by one will drop out of the race and (hopefully) throw their support to Clinton.

But later on Vermont will vote for Sanders as a favorite son.

[ram2008]

2. Meanwhile @ Clinton HQ...

[Fawke Em]

3. Instead of state-owned media, HRC has corporate-owned media.

Keep hearing about her favorability ratings are horrible, but never hear how Bernie's are rising in the M$M.

[erronis]

44. Yeah. Strange that. +++

[restorefreedom]

20. lol. nt

[chknltl]

28. Yes, I lol'ed but this is offensive

I've friends in DU's Hillary group. Just because I am currently not backing their candidate doesn't mean I don't have the highest regards for these fellow DUers. It pains me to see them hurt by posts like this one and we both know this is hurtful. These are some powerful allies-allies we can ill afford to lose from DU. I strongly believe that we would be wise to follow such a noble example as Bernie Sanders sets. Let's get Bernie the nomination and graciously accept the aid that will be offered up by our Hillary Supporters when he gets that nomination.

[mythology]

46. One could argue that given Sanders has thus far not shown an ability to win minority voters

this could just as easily apply to people who believe Sanders will keep rising at the same rate as he has and refuse to acknowledge that Sanders doesn't actually have a viable path to the nomination without managing to get either black or Hispanic voters to leave the Clinton camp.

Gloating is never pretty, but it's especially ugly when you haven't actually won anything yet.

[Fawke Em]

56. True, but I live in the South.

I may be white, but in the real South - not the one that most of you guys know from the news - real white people have real black friends and real black people have real white friends and we never discuss the Civil War unless some shit comes on the news.

I plan to outreach to my real black friends. And my real Arab friends. And my real Indian friends. I live in a pretty melted-pot community and I love it.

[malokvale77]

78. This here ^^^.

Good description of my community (Dallas, Texas) We are all hurting under the current system.

Bernie gets it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

73. Or... that the media has not covered this, I mean the corporate media

I was at a pretty diverse rally last Wednesday, We even HAD PHOTOS of it. And I kept being told that what my lying eyes saw was not what happened, regarding the diversity.

Oh and by the way, the local corporate media mostly was absent. The poor NBC affiliate ran a story with a few factual errors due to using a news release. Somebody snuck though the door and took a terrible cell phone photo. I guess the jeep parked outside told them there was SOME indie media inside.

It was possibly the largest rally in California as well.. but really, not a real story.

This is happening a lot. And I am not a fan of any of these candidates, but things that make you go hmm.

I know next year I will add that story to my campaign coverage, for awards... nobody else was there.

[Scootaloo]

76. "Gloating is never pretty, but it's especially ugly when you haven't actually won anything yet."

*cough*

[elleng]

4. Hi again, Fawke!!!

[Fawke Em]

16. Hi my friend!

[artislife]

6. I like this OP much better!

Though, I am very suspect about polls and their accuracy in data because the structure is so archaic.

[Fawke Em]

15. True, but this one uses landlines and cell phones.

It's in the downloadable data.

[artislife]

24. I didn't catch that...happier still!! nt

[erronis]

45. Oh, wow... You mean it only polls people that want to get spam calls?

Most of the smarter population doesn't pick up a call unless they can identify the caller.

What we end up with is lonely folks (perhaps older) who are just happy to have anyone ask their opinion on anything.

Not a random sampling at all.

[Purveyor]

52. Unless it's a poll favorable to clinton, of course...

[Fawke Em]

55. Pssst...

Older folks VOTE.

[malokvale77]

80. Yes we do.

We have long memories, too.

I don't answer polls though. LOL

[Fawke Em]

83. I have this silly idea.`

You know how a lot of older folks do anything to get out an vote... right?

Younger folk have so much shit in their way.

What if we have this caravan: old folks go get younger folks to vote.

Adopt a Millennial

Old folk teach young folks that getting out in the streets means nothing until you punch that button, pull that crank.. whatever.

[Adrahil]

94. Most good polls do these days. nt

[canuck eh]

23. Solid poll, diverse methodology

proper data collection method - using both cell/landlines. I think the next polls after the first few debates might reveal where the trends truly stand...

[artislife]

25. Just saw that, yippee!! nt

[Fawke Em]

58. Thank you.

I know polls and researched this one's accuracy level before I even posted.

It's methodology is very solid and they use landlines and cells. I think it's as accurate as a poll can be at this point.

[winter is coming]

7. How did Chafee end up with negative numbers? He's such a nonentity. n/t

[Betty Karlson]

87. My guess is his numbers were never that positive anyway:

he's a former Republican, which is a rather toxic record among Democrats, and already was so in the days Chafee changed sides.

It was the same with senator ... Specter, I think his name was, who was defeated in the Pennsylvania primaries because the R that had used to be behind his name was just too toxic. Specter had even been on the top ten conservative idiots of DU!

[rocktivity]

8. Even Nate Silver said Hillary had nothing to fear as long as her favorabilty stayed high

As for me, it's getting complicated -- half of me wants Hillary to win because she lost before, and half of me says that it's in everyone's best interests that this be a fair fight, and she shouldn't be allowed to win SIMPLY because she lost before!


rocktivity

[sadoldgirl]

9. I agree as long as it is a fair fight

The negativity from 2008 still sticks in my gullet.
Thus I have a faint hope that she has learned from
that election to stay above the stray (as well as
her supporters).

[Report1212]

18. She wins because she lost before?

Huh? This isnt about giving hillary or bernie or anyone else a trophy, and its not about whats good or fair to them personally...this is about the country

[ruffburr]

10. I have a feeling-

That this is a headline we will be seeing a lot of, all over the country in the next year, Can't you feel the BERN!!, It's coming soon to a convention center near you!!

[zappaman]

11. New Hampshire's alright if you like fighting...

[Fawke Em]

60. Wait... Wut?

Scissorfight?

[progressoid]

12. Wonder how this will look when Biden announces whether or not he's running.

[marble falls]

13. That was my first thought, too. I think Biden draws from Hillary Clinton than from Bernie Sanders.

[fbc]

21. At this point, I'm not so sure.

After the debates, sure. But at this point I'd bet a lot of the Biden people are "Anyone but Clinton" people that just don't know the other candidates very well yet.

[kenfrequed]

89. Biden draws from a few different pools

He draws a bit from the pool of people looking for a continuation of Obama's presidency.

He draws a bit from some of the establishment Democrats who are not certain Hillary can win in the general

He also draws from a lot of the voters that are in the "anyone but Hillary" camp. Many of these people have legitimate complaints about her policy, or her vagueness, or those that don't like the idea of a dynastic presidency. Of course there are also the few trolls that just don't like her for stupid reasons, but who cares about them.


--------------------


Those that are looking for a continuation of president Obama are probably the most vulnerable to jumping from one of the other candidates to Biden. All of the candidates would experience this loss. It would hit Hillary the hardest since she was his SOS and Biden was his VP. People that want a smooth transition are going to be poachable by Biden.

Nervous Establishment Democrats are going to be like herd animals. All it takes is a few of them to break ranks or one very vocal one. The media will cover it because it is Hillary and they love Hillary stories and her media people are making it harder by not giving the media anything to work with. Once one changes his endorsement there will be others. If the email thing is still a big deal that will intensify this.

Some of those that have issues with her policy have already trended towards Bernie or one of the other candidates. I don't see Biden pulling very much from that group. Of course I could be wrong. If Biden pulls some kind of major policy trump card out of his back and does a huge press conference then he might pull from this group. He could borrow something that Bernie or O'Malley already put forth or stake everything on a big issue or story going on. If, for instance, the VP jumped up and said none of the current Democratic candidates are treating Race seriously enough it would shake up the entire field. Hillary and Bernie would both take a slight hit and Biden would start carving up the undecideds and eating up some of the single digit crowds support.

[sadoldgirl]

14. This claim of Bernie getting only one state

and that state being in the NE, may not be such a
certainty.
Don't forget, just after declaring and still being
rather unknown he spoke to over 5,000 people
in Colorado, which could be a swing state again.

[Fawke Em]

17. I've been around this rodeo before, so, let me tell you

that her dropping favorability ratings and his rising ones are ripe for his picking.

I was a Clarkie in 2004 and he was rising on Dean like a bullet (not that I minded Dean - I just thought a Southerner would pull more Dem votes from the South). Then the M$M just simply STOPPED talking about him. Period.

I'm a former reporter and had just left the profession for about two years back then, so I knew how important media attention was. I sat there incredulous when "Inside Politics" did not mention him for 19 episodes in late December/early January just before the primaries. Not. At. All. Not. A. Word. He was even testifying in some of Milosevic's post-conviction hearings at the time. NOT. A. WORD!

I also see the M$M failing to even peep about Bernie, but times, thankfully, have changed. Candidates don't need them as much anymore. With social media, we ARE the press. The average person can reach scads of people across the nation, now, by only lifting one finger.

I don't know my conclusions, yet, but I do think that Americans are tired of the status quo and the Internet has helped them find politicians who a few years ago, they never would have heard about.

I just hope they keep hearing about Sanders.

[SheilaT]

29. Clark was just barely a candidate.

So to compare Sanders to him is a bit strange.

Comparing Sanders to Dean is valid, and if it had not been for the asshole media, Dean probably would have gotten the nomination. I had friends who were in the room directly in front of him in Iowa, and they all said it was so noisy it was not possible to hear him. But of course his microphone went straight to the control room, making him look like an idiot.

I don't think Sanders will do anything similar.

[Fawke Em]

59. You're correct - Clark was barely a candidate.

Mainly because, while he raised more money than Dean in the quarter he joined the race, he was totally ignored by the media.

Now, for Dean - they belittled him.

[ibegurpard]

33. I'm sorry if you believed in Clark

But I think he was just playing a role and his role was finished at the time you describe.

[SheilaT]

43. No, I did not believe in Clark.

I was an early Deaniac. Campaigned for him, almost made it to the DNC that year, but I was blind-sided by a Clark supporter who knew how to play the game better than I did.

[Fawke Em]

64. I WORKED for his campaign, so what you've just said is wrong.

I know the man and have respected him for years. I could, if I wanted to, pick up the phone and call him now. So could my son.

I have, in the past couple of years, wondered what the hell is going on with him, but I think he's going through late male menopause. I will NOT defend him on a couple of things, but this thread isn't about him. It's about how the media ignore challenges to the status quo.

[nadinbrzezinski]

68. I posted this to another person but this is releveant as well

This is the relevant part of the post, which makes it very possible for people to ignore the filters

by the way I recommend you go find all the speeches given to the Urban League last Friday, and take the time to LISTEN to all of them

Two men (who don't get it according to you) had a plan. Secretary Clinton had a great diagnosis, bless her heart, but no plan.

If I add the third man with a plan on the stage, that would be Bush.

I will not give you my reporting, god forbid I should do that. Just the direct links to all five speeches

http://www.c-span.org/video/?327429-102/hillary-clinton-remarks-national-urban-league-conference

http://www.c-span.org/video/?327429-103/martin-omalley-remarks-national-urban-league-conference

http://www.c-span.org/video/?327429-104/senator-bernie-sanders-remarks-national-urban-league-conference

http://www.c-span.org/video/?327429-101/dr-ben-carson-remarks-national-urban-league-conference

http://www.c-span.org/video/?327429-105/jeb-bush-remarks-national-urban-league-conference

I recommend Carson's first. That is truly a puzzling speech... 6 minutes of pull yourself by bootstraps and all truly talking down to people, He truly puzzles me. But that is the short one with almost no content.

Shame on the rest of the media for NOT covering what was a historic event... five presidential candidates at the Urban League, unheard off. And all five should have been covered well beyond the partisan media on EITHER side did. Which was next to nothing anyway.

This is what the movement has done... by the way. This is how little attention the needs of PoCs are getting. 5 presidential candidates on the stage, three of whom are first tier candidates. Yup, you are right, none is paying attention.

And this is the story I wrote on Monday after spending my wonderful weekend listening to all five.

http://reportingsandiego.com/2015/08/03/five-presidential-candidates-at-the-urban-league/

People should support indie media which is just further fracturing the media environment, but you and I get the dynamic at play,

We were the only local media at the rally on Wednesday, and I was told here by partisans, that of course that had to be a white crowd, so there is a problem as well with hyper partisanship... instead of going, 105,000 people nationwide, that is a historic rally.

[Fawke Em]

70. Hang on a sec...

You're telling me that there were five presidential candidates at the Urban League and there was no coverage.

Sigh. SMH

Give me until this weekend to listen to all of these and see what I can come up with.

[nadinbrzezinski]

72. Rachel had the section where HRC said Black Lives Matter

Last edited Wed Aug 5, 2015, 12:29 AM - Edit history (1)

but did not mention the other four for the most part

The RW media did the same but replace Jeb.

So we did post a story on Monday with links to all five speeches.

http://reportingsandiego.com/2015/08/03/five-presidential-candidates-at-the-urban-league/

Buzzflash here, I know had a reporter talking HRC all the time. But ignored the rest.

There was some twittering, but that was a bout it.

I am tired of this by the way. So people should just ignore the big media imo.

[Fawke Em]

75. Thanks...

I kind of specialize in doing reporting no one else thinks is worthwhile.

DM me and I'll tell you who I am.

[malokvale77]

81. Wow, thanks nadin...

I'm bookmarking to look at tomorrow.

I'm off to bed now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

88. Oh you welcome... listening to the President

will download his remarks from the WH to write a properly quoted story once he is done.



I was too late to record this. Though I am sure the WH will have the tape as well.

[bigdarryl]

19. Don't count Hillary out in NH because I remember this happening

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/22551718/ns/politics-decision_08/t/stunner-nh-clinton-defeats-obama/#.VcFWZPlViko

[tomm2thumbs]

22. I think Hillary is going to be just fine... Headlines don't lie.

Link: Hillary Clinton Leaps Ahead In Latest Democratic Poll


Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton announced this week that she had topped chief rival Barack Obama in third quarter donations and now the New York senator is leading the Democratic field by a whopping 33 points in the latest national poll.

Oops, sorry, flashback... bad aspirin I think.
(am I haz bad ?)

[artislife]

27. Thank you for this

I remember thinking there was no way Obama could topple her but I sure wanted him to.

[tomm2thumbs]

36. people have short memories

movements aren't something you can measure as they usually are pouring down over you

lol

[Fawke Em]

61. Great point.

I'm naturally intuitive and I see this one coming a mile away.

Meanwhile, people who have to work and raise their kids and work again and clean and don't have time to think about this aren't even thinking about this.

I have to do all those things, too, but I love politics and I can spot trends.

Trends tell you a lot.

[Adrahil]

95. You're right... her lead is 41% in the latest CBS poll....

There ya go... I bet you feel better now.

[yallerdawg]

26. The rest of the story...

From poll:

Who Will Win NH Primary? (Likely NH DEM Primary Voters)

A large majority (68%) of likely Democratic Primary voters continue to believe Hillary Clinton will win the New Hampshire primary. Seventeen percent (17%) think Sanders will win and 2% think Biden will win.

[SheilaT]

31. The voters there are still where DU was several months ago,

when lots of people were saying I support him, but of course he can't win. As time goes on, as he continues to draw crowds, as people hear what he is actually saying, it will change.

We're also about five months out from the actual primary in NH, and that's a very long time in politics.

[yallerdawg]

35. Digging deeper in the poll...

it seems voters in New Hampshire are mirroring the national polls.

Two thirds (67%) of likely voters chose Clinton as having the best chance of winning the general election in November, 12% chose Sanders and 15% were unsure.

[Fawke Em]

67. Of course!

That's how I know this is a good poll.

Most people still can't believe an average person (and not a millionaire) could win a national election. We've been conditioned. I don't blame them.

[ibegurpard]

30. long way to go

And trends are starting to look good for him

[OhWiseOne]

32. Without Hillary the repubs win the Presidency

I like Bernie but I also know that the low information voter decides the election and these low info voters will NEVER vote a Socialist in as president. Maybe Hillary will offer Bernie the VP slot to keep the LWNJ's happy.

[vt_native]

34. LWNJ?

Really? on DU?

Okay, I guess, but I think you got lost.

[beltanefauve]

39. LWNJ?

Are you sure you're on the right board?

[LondonReign2]

62. Unfortunately, left wing bashing is perfecty acceptable and condoned here

[libdem4life]

42. Hmmm. Really, now.

[OhWiseOne]

49. this

[libdem4life]

53. Ya missed the point, OWO, LWNJ??? Really? Hmmm.

[arcane1]

54. LWNJ's? Here's an acronym for you: GFY.

[malokvale77]

82. I like your acronym. nt

[beam me up scottie]

85. Gentle Furry Yaks?

[Hatchling]

91. LOL!

Funny, I like it.












BTW: Our babies have hatched.

[OhWiseOne]

93. almost as good as SMD.

true dat

[Fawke Em]

65. So, you're a nut job if you think Social Security

and Medicare should be expanded?

You're a nut job if you think the billionaires own Congress?

You're a nut job if you think you can no longer work hard and get ahead.

WTF ever.

I think you need to revisit your user name.

[kenfrequed]

90. Lovely thoughts...

Thank you so much for your compliments and consideration for us lefties.

We really appreciate and agree with all those wonderful people on talk radio that call us "nut Jobs." I just did not know anyone was so kind and loving to be willing to look that up and treat us so well. I do hope that you enjoy your stay here, however short it might end up being. If you decide you have to go I can post a few links of places you might want to visit.

Unfortunately, it seems "gotohell dot com" has already been registered. Oh well...

[George II]

37. It's also a statistical rout, too...

42 to 36 with a margin of error at 3.6 percent can also be looked at as 45.6 to 32.4, or a 13.2 point lead for Clinton.

[ibegurpard]

38. Yes it can

Long way to go and things are continuing to trend well for Bernie.

[George II]

40. In his neighboring state with virtually identical demographics as his adopted home state.

[ibegurpard]

51. more than six months away

Exciting isn't it?

[Luminous Animal]

66. And a state that's been significantly more conservative than the state he has lived in for 38 years

"Adopted" Cute!

Is New York Hillary's adopted home state? Does she think of New York State as her home state?

[Adrahil]

96. More conservative among the D's there?

Any data to back that up?

[dsc]

47. the MOE on the info you posted is 5.6

the 3.2 relates to the general election questions not the primary.

[Fawke Em]

74. It's 3.6, but OK

I also posted that it was an accurate poll. You can research more using the Google choices of your choosing.

[dsc]

97. No it isn't on the stuff you wrote about

It is 3.6 in terms of the general election questions (hillary vs trump etc) but it is 5.6 in terms of the primary questions. It says it right the poll. I only looked since Rachel discussed the same poll on her show and stated a 5.6 moe. She was right.

[LynneSin]

48. Wow just think if Joe Biden was actually running!!!!

Last edited Wed Aug 5, 2015, 06:00 AM - Edit history (1)

#draftbiden

[Fawke Em]

71. I have always loved your cowbell

I've been here under three different names spanning since about 2003 - left and came back.

I think that bell has been around for at least five years.

[LynneSin]

84. Much longer than that

at least a decade

[Spitfire of ATJ]

50. Aren't "over time" stats important?

[brooklynite]

57. I give him a 40% chance of winning NH...

It's a small State, so easy to do retail campaigning in, and he's known from across the border. On the other hand, Clinton beat the more liberal Obama in 2008, and coming off a win in Iowa will change the dynamics of the NH race.

[LondonReign2]

63. I actually think NH is a tougher state for Sanders

It trends conservative in comparison to it's neighbors and went for Clinton last time. But definitely good news for him in this poll.

[BlueStreak]

77. Several of my arch-conservative friends have some respect for Sanders

They say he is the only Dem in this race they believe has any integrity. I don't think they are at the point of being concerned about Sanders because they all believe Hillary will be the opponent.

But this is a strange year. Jebbie has all the money and all the Party friends. Conventional wisdom says Trump should have had a few weeks in the spotlight and then he would fade with Jebbie rising to the top. That isn't really happening yet. This may not play out the way conventional wisdom has it.

Come to think of it, when was the last time the Beltway conventional "wisdom" was actually right?

[ericson00]

79. well lets see if they're really willing to nominate an avowed socialist

which I seriously doubt anyone truly thinks would be elected here in America. We are a few months out.

[DanTex]

86. This is mixed news for Bernie. The good news is that he's close in NH.

The bad news is that the numbers haven't moved much in the last month, which mirrors what has happened in the national polls. There was a surge, but it leveled out over the last month.

NH is a must-win for Bernie. If he loses NH, the primary campaign pretty much ends there. Because after that comes SC and then Super Tuesday, where the demographics are far less favorable to him.

[WillyT]

92. HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You !!!