2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPoll: Why is Joe Biden suddenly & belatedly jumping into the Democratic Primary race?
Why is Joe Biden suddenly jumping into this Democratic Primary race?
32 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited | |
Because he's a politician who'll be unemployed soon | |
1 (3%) |
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Because Establishment Dems think he can beat Sanders and Hillary can't | |
17 (53%) |
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Because he thinks Hillary is too conservative & Barnie's too far-Left. | |
0 (0%) |
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Because Joe's a glutton for punishment | |
1 (3%) |
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Because he can. | |
2 (6%) |
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1-5 All of the above | |
1 (3%) |
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Combination of ... above | |
2 (6%) |
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Other (please specify) | |
8 (25%) |
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0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided. | |
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll |
LWolf
(46,179 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)LWolf
(46,179 posts)a whole bunch of people get really excited.
I should probably want him to run, since I think he'd get a big chunk of Clinton's support, but I don't.
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)vote she has, the part of the base that remains. Which is a very small part of the electorate as it is.
Most of the polls we see show Bernie gaining re the Dem base. Hillary still has a big, but diminishing lead as people gradually learn about Bernie.
What no polls are showing are the other voting blocs.
Indies, non-voters who gave up on the status quo but are slowly learning about Bernie some already signing up for his campaign.
Moderate Repubs, Libertarians but the Indy vote is the biggest voting bloc in the country right now with people fleeing both parties and either dropping out altogether or registering as Independents.
No status quo candidate will attract any of those demographics.
Fortunately we have Bernie to get that huge combined vote.
LWolf
(46,179 posts)Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Sunlei
(22,651 posts)I wish Kerry was interested in a run for president again, as well.
We Ds are fortunate to have so many great Americans who want to be president.
artislife
(9,497 posts)I am assuming you think Hillary will lead the ticket, but you may be suggesting the reverse? Not sure.
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Nothing would be allowed to be different. And he'd still try to triangulate between war and peace-which still couldn't possibly work as a political strategy.
We must never run any campaign the way we did in 1984, 1988 or 2004 again.
Xyzse
(8,217 posts)Then I can definitely see myself moving my support towards Biden instead.
WheelWalker
(8,956 posts)artislife
(9,497 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)More than a little plausible,
Snap! ..sorry i didn't include that in poll
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)To vacuum up a large share of the undecided votes so Hillary can sail through to the nomination.
MBplayer
(73 posts)GOP cannot counter with the "authenticity" card with Joe at the top of the ticket.
When our candidate cannot connect with the foot soldiers of the Democratic party, we lose. Every. Single. Time.
Todays_Illusion
(1,209 posts)Bernie's is busy reminding us of the policies that once made us a great nation including the free college plus living stipend for the WWII vets, nearly free state colleges for the children of those vets.
The importance and necessity of Social Security/Medicare and a true national health plan.
Something we once had via all those free clinics in every county of the U.S., closed when it was decided that health care must be all for profits only, not care of the people of a nation, all those other liberal ideas, separation of church and state, political and equality for all citizens
and most of all a necessary pay increase for U.S. Workers.
old time U.S. liberal ideas.
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Sure would be nice.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)if he wasn't going to declare soon. Do you?
appalachiablue
(41,180 posts)Joe popped up by Thurs.-Fri. See a factor? as in if she doesn't do well with that, he's the fall back guy. She also came out as seriously dropping in the Quinnepeac Poll this past week.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)i knew the e-mail thing was dogging her, but not that it was
hurting her all that badly.
So yes it makes sense that Joe's warming up in the bull pen.
appalachiablue
(41,180 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Quackers
(2,256 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)Quackers
(2,256 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)Wish that was an option in your poll.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)but the reason it wasn't is I can't imagine why Joe would be making
so much noise about "maybe running" if he wasn't about to announce.
Since you think he's not running, what purpose would his comments
have, if he's not really running?
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)"Sources close to Biden" have made the comments.
I think we're in the doldrums before the campaign proper so any rumor becomes both newsworthy and of great importance.
JI7
(89,276 posts)He has slways had interest but because if his son's illness and passing it wasn't something he could focus on then.
Now he is again looking at it.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)still_one
(92,433 posts)have announced earlier
Hillary has solidified her doners, and support among mainstream Democrats especially in regard to super delegates, and Biden is going to have a tough time overcoming that. Bernie and for that matter O'Malley are going at a grass roots support strategy. Again, Joe will have a tough time with that route because he is jumping in late in te game. Not impressed is single, but definitely uphill
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)Joe's a politician and a good one. Politicians like to win elections--especially the biggest one of all, the US presidential election. Joe would love to be president.
If he were to jump in it would only be because he senses a real opening and a good chance to win. And has lots of donors lined up. I'm sure he's talked to supporters who have doubts about Hillary's chances against the republicans. They see her polling negatives after relentless right wing attacks.
I doubt he views Sanders as a real threat. That could change, but Bernie's polling numbers are still too low to frighten him from getting into the race.
mimi85
(1,805 posts)Thank goodness.
BillZBubb
(10,650 posts)If he doesn't see a way to win, he's not going to try.
Wash. state Desk Jet
(3,426 posts)like the road sign that reads- proceed with caution.
brooklynite
(94,757 posts)...because he's not...
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)until he is.
Why then is he all over the news suggesting that he's going to announce?
People don't do that generally unless it's a run-up to an announcement.
brooklynite
(94,757 posts)There is nothing he's done to suggest he's running; no dramatic speeches; no hitting the road to support other candidates and collect political chits; no reaching out to potential funders. The only thing there have been are news stories citing unnamed aides suggesting he's THINKING about running.
As to WHY he won't be running: he's at the top of his career right now, and is smart enough to know that campaigning against Hillary Clinton will be a huge challenge with no guarantees. He'll be far happier ending on a high note, rather than being remembered as the person who ran for President three times and lost.
99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)to God/Goddess' ears.
I have a lot of respect for Joe, and would not enjoy having to 'vote against' him,
but I still would, vote for Sanders ...
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)mainstreetonce
(4,178 posts)We need a good dose of honesty. Go Joe!
appalachiablue
(41,180 posts)Jane Austin
(9,199 posts)Hillary will implode and a Republican will win.
Her high distrust numbers might do her in.
Beacool
(30,253 posts)appalachiablue
(41,180 posts)Last edited Sun Aug 2, 2015, 09:19 PM - Edit history (1)
hence joe just stepped in. also the recent quinnepac poll shows her dropping.
Beacool
(30,253 posts)99th_Monkey
(19,326 posts)it's based on her favorability rating being in a free-fall.
Beacool
(30,253 posts)It's too soon for people to either panic or cheer, depending on one's preference.
johnson_z
(45 posts)All the criticisms against Vice President Biden have no depth!
He says goofy things once in a while, but don't we all? He is one of us. There are no scandals, there are no accusations of any substance, I say again, he can win this!
I'm in my 50s, and Senator/Vice President "Joe" has always been there, he has been around long enough to have the sort of history that qualifies him to be the "Elder Statesman", the "Adult Supervision", the "voice of reason", he is what this country needs!
While I would love to see us elect the first Woman as president, Secretary Clinton has a lot of baggage that would make this election too much about defense, and not enough about offense.
Just my $0.02.
J.
P.S. I am sort of pissed off that my spell checker says Biden is not a word
Beacool
(30,253 posts)I'm not even sure about Hillary. Will the majority of Americans want Democrats to remain in the WH for three consecutive terms? That's still a big if....
johnson_z
(45 posts)I think in the current national, and world situation has people looking for stability, calm, common sense. As much as I would love to see Bernie Sanders' down to Earth sanity in the White House, I think he is too far out of the main stream to be elected.
Joe Biden, has been a rock steady icon and and a voice of reason. I hope this is not considered offensive, but he could be the Democratic version of ronald reagan. There have been times when I have, sort of held my nose, and cast my vote, but there just isn't a lot of down side, baggage etc., where Joe Biden is concerned. I admit to being a supporter (and therefore a little biased), but I truly think Joe can win this!
Beacool
(30,253 posts)Hillary would be a few months younger than Reagan was by inauguration day, and many are already making age comparisons. Sanders and Biden are in their 70s. They would be close to 80 by the end of their first term (Biden will be 73 this year and Sanders 74). I don't see either of them winning.
artislife
(9,497 posts)I mean, Reagan was befuddled during his whole 8 years, so I wouldn't want to chance it with H.
2banon
(7,321 posts)Biden had a significant role in how all that unfolded and eventually turned into a confirmation of the one who should never, ever have been nominated. NOT EVER.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)johnson_z
(45 posts)Do you consider that okay, assuming Vice President Biden has a good chance (better than Bernie's) of winning the general election?
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)I didn't voice a preference, just my opinion of a possible outcome.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)Biden is a status quo candidate. Sanders isn't. My guess is that the majority of Sanders supporters are anti-status quo, no matter who the status quo candidate is. If that's the case, Sanders' numbers will stay where they are, and Hillary's could drop.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)If Biden decides to run, he will draw some of Hillary, some of the undecideds, but also a significant number of Bernie supporters. He after all a Dem and is not Hillary. Biden is jumping in so late, he can't fundraise fast or big enough. He will withdraw, and ask his supporters to support Hillary. Granted some will move back to Bernie, but not all, and by then the damage is done to Bernie's candidacy.
winter is coming
(11,785 posts)If someone's hung up enough on Bernie running as a Dem when he hasn't been an "official" Dem that they'll abandon him for Joe, they wouldn't be supporting Bernie in the first place.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)And many had given up. I see Bernie getting most of these and the discontented ...those who vote and hold their noses. Who knows what the Republican Primary will bring up, too.
senz
(11,945 posts)Biden and Hillary occupy the same status quo niche. Bernie is in a different category. Thus, status quo voters who wish they didn't have to vote for Hillary will welcome a Biden appearance. I can't see many Bernie voters jumping over to Biden.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)People who are supporting Bernie are not going to flock to Joe Biden. Despite your attempts at oversimplification, support for Bernie is NOT simply "anyone but Hillary." There are several other candidates in the mix currently that are gaining no traction. If you are successful in derailing Bernie Sanders you will simply cause many people who haven't been excited about a candidate for a long time to sink back into apathy.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)judging by many posts here on DU, you could have fooled me.
But again, it's all conjecture and opinion, so you may feel a there is a different type of loyalty for Sanders, and that's ok too.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)Considering everything I've seen from you so far. If Bernie wasn't in it I wouldn't be clamoring for anyone else because I don't believe anyone else would be authentically pushing the issues that he is. Warren said she wasn't running and O'Malley despite his rhetoric and the record people are trying to highlight, just doesn't ring true to me for some reason. I have ALWAYS liked Bernie Sanders for his views on issues.
Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)While you are into Bernie or nothing. That's fine. i don't thik you are 100% representative of all the Bernie supporters. And I've read a fair few that are in Bernie's camp because he's not Hillary...and that it is.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)You've been one of the worst.
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)implying that he might be jumping in?
Jane Austin
(9,199 posts)and he refused to deny that he would get in.
artislife
(9,497 posts)Could it be that other people besides progressives are lukewarm on Hillary?
mr_liberal
(1,017 posts)because of the email scandal.
It depends on if her numbers keep getting worse. She'll beat socialist Sanders no matter what. But Dem party insiders are getting worried about the GE.
Biden could enter the race just as a safety valve. If Hillary collapses (in the national polls for the GE) then the party could rally around him in the primaries.
NYCButterfinger
(755 posts)be better alternatives. Gillibrand and Kaine can win, but Gore and Kerry were seen as uninspiring by some of the Democratic base in 2000 and 2004, but they beat Dubya in the debates. Kerry can be a good candidate, he can self-fund, and he has impressive credentials, and he won't allow Rove to swift boat him as he did in 2004.
senz
(11,945 posts)pscot
(21,024 posts)These people are all 70 years old. It would be a big mistake not to have a fallback.
Depaysement
(1,835 posts)Yupster
(14,308 posts)and every candidate once they get the taste of running for president never lose it.
senz
(11,945 posts)Beacool
(30,253 posts)She's obsessed with the Clintons.
Douglas Carpenter
(20,226 posts)Arkana
(24,347 posts)DisgustipatedinCA
(12,530 posts)Establishment Democrats don't believe Sanders can win, and they want a backup in case Hillary's email story (or possibly some other story) gets legs.
polichick
(37,152 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)Completely missed his announcement. Do you have a link? Love myself some Biden.
artislife
(9,497 posts)By some of the comments about Joe when his son died. The Right really has a group that does not like him and the comments were pretty vile.
I hope Joe and Jill do what is best for Joe and Jill.
2banon
(7,321 posts)her theory seems to be the establishment Dems are worried about HRC's declining poll numbers on trust and authenticity. (paraphrasing the main thrust of her piece).
I have to say, I found it as likely a theory as any other. Although, a rather scatter shot "analysis" at best.
Beacool
(30,253 posts)Hillary must have stolen her boyfriend in another lifetime. Her vitriol is always way over the top when it comes to Hillary. I would take with a grain of salt anything she writes. She also trashed Gore in the past, and after lauding Obama in the primaries, she went after him too once he became president.
2banon
(7,321 posts)However, this piece was about Biden's considerations for running.
Yes, she cited the most recent Quinnipiac poll as regards HRC's unfavorability trend, if that's the bit which prompted you to discredit Dowd's op ed, but that factual point aside, her main thrust of this piece (albeit scatter shot, almost incoherent ramblings) was in reference to Biden's entry into the race, citing conversation between Beau and Joe..
I missed all of the other stuff you pointed out. She only came on my radar during Bush Cheney years, with absolutely brilliant pieces.
Everyone on DU seemed to love her then.
Beacool
(30,253 posts)She has preferences and dislikes that color her columns. In other words, I take anything she writes with a grain of salt. She changes like the wind.
Here's an article from 2007 about Dowd:
"But then, why should pundits criticize Coulter when she describes Dem males as big f*ggots? Its very similar to the gender-based analysis their dauphine, the Comptesse Maureen Dowd, has long offered. In Dowds work, John Edwards is routinely the Breck Girl(five times so farand counting), and Gore is so feminized that hes practically lactating. Indeed, two days before we voted in November 2000, Dowd devoted her entire column, for the sixth time, to an imaginary conversation between Gore and his bald spot. I feel pretty, her headline said (pretending to quote Gores inner thoughts).That was the image this idiot wanted you carrying off to the voting booth with you! Such is the state of Maureen Dowds broken soul. And such is the state of her cohort."
http://www.dailyhowler.com/dh030507.shtml
For more than twenty years, New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd has been attacking Hillary Clinton from a shallow well of insults, routinely portraying the former secretary of state and first lady as an unlikeable, power-hungry phony.
Media Matters analyzed 195 columns by Dowd since November 1993 containing significant mentions of Clinton for whether they included any of 16 negative tropes in five categories (listed in the below methodology). 72 percent (141 columns) were negative towards Clinton -- only 8 percent (15 columns) were positive. The remaining 20 percent (39 columns) were neutral.
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2014/06/18/the-numbers-behind-maureen-dowds-21-year-long-c/199752
Maureen Dowd shared some of her early observations of Hillary Clintons presidential campaign on Sunday, and the recommendations she offers in the editorial are surprise! steeped in sexism.
In a New York Times op-ed (with the apt headline Granny Get Your Gun), Dowd bemoans the former secretary of states apparent problem of not being able to figure out how to campaign as a woman, and notes some behaviors Clinton might want to try and avoid if she plans to gear her campaign away from the foolishness of acting like a masculine woman (as in 2008) while also illustrating that bitch is still the new black:
http://www.salon.com/2015/04/20/basking_in_estrogen_maureen_dowd_offers_predictably_sexist_take_on_hillary_clintons_campaign/
Like an obsessed Anne Harrington in All About Eve, New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd has been writing about Hillary Clinton for more than two decades, comparing her to characters from Scarlett OHara to the Terminator.
Dowd has written 195 columns about Hillary Clinton since 1993, according to an analysis by the liberal group Media Matters, released on Wednesday. An advance copy of the review was provided to BuzzFeed by the organization.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/heres-what-you-learn-from-reading-20-years-worth-of-maureen#.tqOMdKr40
2banon
(7,321 posts)during the 8 long tortuous years of the Bush Cheney regime, I read her columns fairly regularly. Never in those 8 years do I recall ever reading Dowd engaging in criticizing HRC. Although, I may have missed those.
She goes after figures in power or who hunger to be in positions of power.
Dowd's perspective is not exactly unique. She's expressing a pov which is more common and widely shared than some would rather not admit.
just in case there's some confusion, Dowd is no fan of republicans, nor am I.
fadedrose
(10,044 posts)and Joe is afraid the party may lose because of it.
Wabbajack_
(1,300 posts)It will be because he wants to be President. He's run twice before so that much is obvious. Hillary or no he'd stand a much better chance this time as VP then did in 08 or 88 as a Senator.
I've always liked Joe Biden, I think he'd make a good President. Though I prefer Sanders.
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)soon
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)Biden is he closest candidate to the corporate-centrist outlook of Hillary. They are afraid of Sanders, esp. if he. were to win the presidency. On this last note, the Democratic Party "leadership" would be faced with two options: (1) Oppose Sanders' influence and policies while he governs, thus making his presidency a failure, or (2) Organize to help a Sanders agenda and thus end the pro-corporate/financial orientation of the Party for which the "leadership" has worked long and hard.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)akbacchus_BC
(5,704 posts)Just wanted to add an explanation. VP Biden buried two children, parents are not supposed to bury their children, he is dealing with a lot of emotional trauma and your poll is disrespectful. VP Biden is not running for the Presidency as far as I know. Have some respect for a Dad who is facing some serious family matters.
MADem
(135,425 posts)She loves to open cans of worms. http://www.salon.com/2015/08/03/biden_2016_is_a_media_fantasy_why_hes_almost_certainly_going_to_sit_the_race_out/
Joe Biden probably isn't running for president, despite the latest round of Maureen Dowd-fueled speculation
.....The basic information here isnt new the Wall Street Journal quoted Democratic insider and fervent Biden backer Dick Harpootlian over a month ago saying Its no secret that Beau wanted him to run. But the detail Dowd provides is new, and that leads to the question of who Dowds source is. She quotes Joe Biden and describes his thoughts, which at first glance would seem to indicate that Biden himself passed along this information. But thats not necessarily the case you have to remember that this is Maureen Dowd were talking about here. She specializes in pretending to crawl inside peoples heads. In February she wrote a column describing Mitt Romneys mental reaction to seeing the documentary Mitt, though it was clear she based her descriptions of Romneys thoughts on conversations with his friends and associates. So when it comes to Joe Biden, she could be describing what Biden told her, or offering a third-hand account of a conversation between the vice president and his dying son.
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)and he knows that the email scandal will sink Hillary, so he figures he's the natural pick for establishment candidate, and he also figures that he can whip anybody that gets the crap beaten out of them by Trump on their way to the GOP nomination.