2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHere is my big electability problem with Sanders
his name is Russ Feingold. Russ Feingold was US Senator from Wisconsin until he lost to Ron Johnson. Now Ron Johnson was a horrible candidate. He said crazy things. And yes 2010 was, in general, a bad year. But we had one bright spot in that bad year. Incumbent US Senators. Only two lost in the general election and three total. Elected, appointed, didn't matter. They did fairly well. Arlen Specter lost in the primary to Joe Sestak. Sestak lost in the general. Blanche Lincoln lost in Arkansas, a state we have won only one state wide race in, during the Obama era and where we lost all but one Congressional race in the same time (out of 16). And we lost Feingold in Wisconsin. Senators considered in way worse trouble, with way worse negatives such as Reid and Bennet won, Feingold lost, and it wasn't even close. He lost by 5. Walker won an open seat governorship by about the same amount. In comparison Corbett won his governorship by 10 while Sestak lost by only 2.
So just how did this happen. Simple. Feingold refused to let outside money be spent on him and he was massacred by ads. This was a popular, incumbent Senator running against the third worst candidate the Republicans fielded. O'Donnel and Angle were worse but that is it and they were both Godsends. I can't fathom how the same thing wouldn't happen to Sanders against pretty much any of the Republicans. Add in the fact he opposed immigration reform in 2007 and have the nominee of the GOP be either Bush or Perry and it could be a wipe out of major proportions. Feingold tried it Bernie's way. He got killed. One last thing. Warren got 54% of the vote in MA. Obama 61%. If the theory of most of Bernie's supporters were correct she should have out polled Obama, not the other way around.
yourout
(7,531 posts)I am not sure any amount of money would have saved Russ.
dsc
(52,162 posts)despite running against a way worse candidate and being an incumbent. Sestak, whose campaign was considered so bad that 6 years later national Democrats are wishing for anyone else to run only lost by 2 to a much better candidate. Feingold's strategy certainly is why he lost by 5 and was likely why he lost period.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)and Scott Walker was running for re-election
in Prez elections about 3 million vote statewide
off yr elections about 2.2 million vote
if Wis. Gov races were not offset from Presidential yrs , Scott Walker would never have been Governor.
In order for Bernie to win, his grass roots strategy will have to work. Time will tell.
dsc
(52,162 posts)he was running for election. Feingold was running for reelection. Yes, it was an off year election, but it was equally an off year election everywhere else. And he was one of only three incumbent Senators to lose his election that year. Reid won, Bennet won. Sestak nearly won. Feingold lost by 5.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)if Sharron Angle wasn't batshit crazy, she would have beaten Reid.
Chris Coons would have lost in Delaware if he hadn't been running against someone who wasn't a witch.
I don't think that you can compare 2010 to 2016.
I don't think that you can really compare Feingold to Bernie Sanders.
Whatever the ultimate outcome here, Bernie is running a different kind of campaign.
dsc
(52,162 posts)and worse than Buck, who Bennett beat. The simple fact is Feingold should have won that race. Boxer won, Bennett won, Sestek nearly won, Feingold vastly underperformed by any reasonable measure. Remember Reid not only beat the horrible Angle but managed to get 50% of the vote despite none of the above being an option.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)Democrats were just complacent.
dsc
(52,162 posts)but the outside money was very against him and made up the difference and then some.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)not with a three term Senator.
Wisconsin is a strange place. Joseph McCarthy.... William Proxmire....Scott Walker.....
I just don't think that you can't draw too many conclusions from that one election.
SunSeeker
(51,574 posts)BooScout
(10,406 posts)mythology
(9,527 posts)The electorate is both smaller and whiter in those elections.
I think if Sanders can win the primary he would have a legitimate shot at the general even if he would be an underdog against most likely potential opponents given the money advantage they will have.
But I don't see how he gets the primary election given he can't reproduce the Obama coalition. There isn't a majority of primary voters that doesn't include winning either black or Hispanic voters which Sanders thus far hasn't done.
virtualobserver
(8,760 posts)we will be living in an entirely different universe.
We will certainly know if his grass roots strategy has worked or not. I do not think that we can even imagine all of the twists and turns that this election will take.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)dsc
(52,162 posts)but he is far from the only such animal and Johnson is truly horrible both at campaigning and with his positions and he managed to beat Feingold by 5.
Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)That should help level the playing field
Luminous Animal
(27,310 posts)dsc
(52,162 posts)I have a governor here to get rid of, whose opponent will get money from me. I also have a state legislature to at least get down to not being veto proof that will be getting money from me. I won't be giving any money during the primary given that I need to save money to give to my state Democrats. If we can't unseat McCrory here I don't see NC remaining a viable place to live.
Luminous Animal
(27,310 posts)dsc
(52,162 posts)I am not wealthy by any means and must spend my limited resources where they will do the most good. Cooper will get money from me as will Democrats running against vulnerable Republicans in my state House or state Senate whichever looks easier to get down to below 60% GOP (our veto line). I am a gay teacher in a state that is now ruled by a Tea Party legislature that is decimating our education system. That is my job one. If I have any money left I will give some to our nominee for President.
Luminous Animal
(27,310 posts)Trajan
(19,089 posts)knowing you are a hardcore Hillary supporter, one might question whether your concerns are legitimate, or just political posturing on behalf of your own choice ....
I'll give your sincerity the benefit of the doubt : Bernie CAN and WILL win because people are tired of it ..
TIRED of the loss of jobs ....
TIRED of the low wages ...
TIRED of the threats to Social Security and Medicare ...
TIRED of school debt and endless wars .... Many veterans are certainly singing Bernie's praises, and for good reason, which you know good and well is true ... Bernie is a no bullshit feller ... straight up and pragmatic, and everybody knows that ...
Hillary isn't going to cut it .... People are tired of losing, and they wanna win for a change ...
Bernie should be just the first step .... in fact, we should be working toward finding similarly 'Democratic Socialistic' minded Representatives and Senators to run against the GOP and Moderate Dems, and, hopefully get caught up in the Bernie wave ... Turning the Congress should absolutely be our goal, and in all 50 states !
You can pretend that is not real .... kinda like unskewing a poll, but we know what happened with that ... I am prepared to give Bernie far more money than I ever have another candidate .. The stakes are that high ...
(Yes, I know Hillary is leading in current polls, but I think Bernie is going from zero to winner in the timeframe of one election ...)
Look ... We have the energy and the momentum ... Bernie is on a rocket right now ... Let's see how it plays out ...
That is the reality of it anyways - It will play out, and I suppose we will pick up the pieces and, in my case, vote for the Democratic Party Nominee ....
I am done being outraged ... I am determined ... WE are determined ...
I will put some money in Bernie's coffers for you .... You can pay me back later .... He certainly needs us ...
dsc
(52,162 posts)O'Malley would be a strong consideration for me if he is still viable on Super Tuesday. Is there anything on that list that Feingold wasn't for, I don't think so. He got killed. I have yet to see any discussion other than magical unicorn thinking as to just how Sanders would win.
Trajan
(19,089 posts)Is in your unfair comparison of a gubernatorial contest in a moderate state to the Presidential Election of our lifetimes ....
It is an unfair and unlikely analogy ... WAY more focus on this election ....
I think dems can (and will) sweep the demoralized GOP out of the majorities, if Bernie brings people BACK to the polls after ignoring them for so long ....
I get why Bernie is so popular ... People believe him ... Moderates AND Liberals believe him ... They know he cares for veterans more than ANY Republican has ever done .. They know it's true ... Getting vets on your side, against the GOP ... This is an extraordinary development. ....
Republicans like him ... certainly not because of his platform .. but because he is honest and sincere ...
I'm tellin ya .... Bernie is going to shake up election history ...
If he doesn't, I'm going to vote Democratic, then tend to my garden ...
dsc
(52,162 posts)not a goventorial one and it featured an incumbent with the name recognition that comes with that. Republicans liked Feingold he was honest and sincere. Heck he even voted against the Patriot Act, only one in the Senate to do so. And down in flames he went. Other than Feingold we have won every federal state wide election in Wisconsin since 1986 when Senator Kasten was reelected. That is 8 Senate elections (three won by Feingold) and 8 Presidential elections. So we are 16 wins and 1 loss. Not a moderate state by any means at the federal level.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)big dollars came out against him with ads, etc it is a telling outcome. Kerry had swift boat ads against him, it takes money to run ads or counter ads. I got the picture.
dsc
(52,162 posts)the best move of hers or any campaign. She got Brown to agree to no outside spending with a viable enforcement mechanism. It was brilliant on her part and likely was why she won. It is certainly why she won by the amount she did.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)dsc
(52,162 posts)even he refused to do the same thing in his New Hampshire race.
Luminous Animal
(27,310 posts)Ready to register voters, ready to engage with voters, ready to recruit their civil servant bother and sisters, ready to recruit their retired bothers and sisters, ready to recruit their farmer bothers and sisters, ready to recruit their hipster bothers and sisters (yes hipster
I've been to two meet ups in SF that had amazing interaction with San Francisco hipsters and wizened dock worker union members).
You can run a campaign with an entrance fee of $1000-$2700. And you can run a campaign with a self-selected audience that you have pre-determined will listen to you.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)That audience has to have enough votes in it to win the election. Does not matter about the size of the audience, it is the votes.
brooklynite
(94,598 posts)...including Wall Street types. Like my wife.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)handle whatever they need. If they care to donate money well good. Does not make them bad, huh.
delrem
(9,688 posts)My lord, you guys have to do better than that in order to win people to your cause, whatever the hell your cause is, lost as it is under all those piles of cold hard cash.
dsc
(52,162 posts)His position on immigration, at least in 2007, is actually worse than Jeb or Perry's in terms of what Hispanics want to see happen. While I don't see Perry winning the nomination I certainly could see Jeb doing so. All the GOP needs is around 40% of the Hispanic vote to win and I don't see a man who opposed Immigration reform in 2007 getting 60+% of the vote against a man who speaks fluent Spanish (Jeb or Rubio) and has a Mexican wife. But yes, money matters. Just ask Senator Feingold, no wait I mean former Senator Feingold.
delrem
(9,688 posts)But thanks for the laugh.
dsc
(52,162 posts)Now if they run an anti Immigration candidate such as Walker then Sanders might be able to get to the over 60% but if they run Jeb and we run him, Sanders might win the Hispanic vote on other issues but he won't win it by as much as he will need to win it by to win the election as a whole.
delrem
(9,688 posts)eta: do you understand what I mean?
I think a debate over immigration law between Democratic party candidates is 100% valid and on topic.
But your OP didn't speak about issues AT ALL, in fact it put actual issues in the back seat as against the driving force of $$$.
Even at that, you don't address the implications of your belief, that $$$ trumps (haha) everything and that issues don't matter.
Your OP is a capitulation to an out of control $$$ driver, nothing more.
dsc
(52,162 posts)apparently you couldn't be bothered to actually read what you commented on.
delrem
(9,688 posts)You tacked on an issue that the Republican party DOESN'T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT, as if it bolstered your purely $$$ case - after making the case using two examples having nothing whatever to do with the issue that you tacked on.
You have to put together a coherent argument.
eta: whenever I hear the phrase "the most electable candidate" I think how similar all down the line it is to the absurd "the most eligible bachelor".
It's just too ridiculous to engage with, and I've engaged with it more than enough.
dsc
(52,162 posts)but Immigration is also a problem for Bernie. I will admit, that even if his position on Immigration in 2007 were the other way I would still be concerned about the money issue. But conversely, I would also have a problem with his Immigration position even if he were more willing to raise money.
delrem
(9,688 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Not a party line pisition,m but read his reasoning to at least understand it
kenn3d
(486 posts)Bernie knows they will attack him and he will spend this little righteous cash we give him wisely.
I quote him again now: "Don't underestimate me"
More and more and day by day, he has the people of this country behind him.
dsc
(52,162 posts)and he was an incumbent. Yet he lost and lost badly. I have yet to hear any acknowledgement of that outcome.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Where has she been about the $$$?
delrem
(9,688 posts)But color me puzzled!
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)delrem
(9,688 posts)That your smile makes everything fine?
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Belongs to others.
AgingAmerican
(12,958 posts)Is what bought politicians get you.
Bernie is none of those people. The time is right.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)Okay. Great way to peroetuate thev mess we're in, and make it worse.
.
mwooldri
(10,303 posts)If a bunch of billionaires want to spend a ton of money on political advertising in support of Bernie, Bernie can't say no. Or yes for that matter. If outside money wants to get involved it will find a way.
fbc
(1,668 posts)Get used to it, that's the way it's going to be from now on.
dsc
(52,162 posts)and last I checked the internet was up and running in 2010 and still Feingold went down in flames.
fbc
(1,668 posts)Bernie doesn't need internet Ads. He's already got the populations of major forums behind him, photoshopping viral ads that cost his campaign nothing and distributing them through social media.
Hell, I've seen people hyping him in "all" chat in the videogame I play.
Hillary can buy all the banners she wants on CNN.com and the Huffington Post, it can't compete with stuff like this:
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Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)frylock
(34,825 posts)SunSeeker
(51,574 posts)Trajan
(19,089 posts)Is your comparison of the Feingold loss of a Senate race to the future election of a United States President ... The two elections are not comparable ... Any argument based on this idea isn't well founded ... Any conclusion based on this idea isn't well founded ...
Good luck ....
dsc
(52,162 posts)There have been 7 Presidential elections 88-12 we are 4-3 nationally in that time. We are 7 for 7 in Wisconsin. Since 1986 there have been 9 Senate elections, we are 8 wins 1 loss. That makes us 15 to 1 over that time in terms of Wisconsin. That 1 loss was Feingold's reelection effort in 2010.
fbc
(1,668 posts)Welp, better pack it up Sanderistas, you can't beat that logic.
dsc
(52,162 posts)Presidential we are 4 wins and 3 losses nationally. We won off year Senate elections in Wisconsin in 94, 98, 06.
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)OK, then.
dsc
(52,162 posts)yep that pretty much is it.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)- although the criticism is usually framed in hyperbolic half-truths - will actually HELP Bernie. His discussion of these issues is sane and reasonable and, well, you aren't hearing that. Suffice to say it makes his appeal much broader than you can even imagine.
Bernie CAN win. In fact, he's got a better shot at the title than Hillary whose GE run would be like shooting fish in a barrel. She requires a fleet of buses for her baggage and no good explanation for her dodgy behavior at State. It's clear you/yours think she's going to slide into the WH on a tidal wave of clash. Bernie supporters believe that's obsolete CW and are setting out to prove that with a social media/people-powered campaign.
See you at the ballot box.
BainsBane
(53,035 posts)and he hasn't told them not to. http://www.sevendaysvt.com/vermont/sanders-shifting-stance-on-super-pacs/Content?oid=2759783
still_one
(92,219 posts)dsc
(52,162 posts)He won't win Illinois, Maine, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan. all of which were won by Obama.
SunSeeker
(51,574 posts)Acknowledging reality always helps.
eridani
(51,907 posts)How many people were phoning and knocking doors on his behalf?
djean111
(14,255 posts)effect on Bernie's supporters. So - it's all good and settled.
Oh, and Bernie is doing quite well on a millennial-type site like Reddit - almost 70,000 subscribers to his subreddit, really really well organized, and Hillary's subreddit is in the hundreds. Those folks don't watch TV ads. And they consider Hillary business as has been usual. I doubt money can change that. They also are not buying in to the two different teams thing, either, they see enough Dems voting like Rs.
Some of the old stuff is just not going to work this time.
BooScout
(10,406 posts)As our system now stands, it takes a lot of boatloads of money to win the Presidency. It's great to try and take a stand and say you won't take money from the big donors....BUT, it is political suicide at this level. You would be decimated by advertising and sound bites from the opposition. Obama raised $750 million dollars for the 2008 election. He got that from a record number of small AND large donors.
You may not like that our system is the way it is. You may consider the amount of money spent to be obscene. But gambling that it's a good thing not to have as much money or more at your disposal than your opponent will get you nowhere fast.
LWolf
(46,179 posts)my short list of people I hoped would run in the Democratic primaries. Instead, he's running to take his Senate spot back, and I fully support him in that effort.
I think he'll be successful, and I think Sanders will be, as well.
Gothmog
(145,321 posts)Some candidates are better able to raise the funds necessary to complete. President Obama blew everyone away in 2008 with his small donor fundraising efforts and that made it clear that he was electable. Jeb is trying to do the same on the GOP side with his $100 million super pac.
There are many on this board who doubt that Sanders will be able to compete in a general election contest where the Kochs will be spending $887 million and the RNC candidate will likely spend another billion. This article had a very interesting quote about the role of super pacs in the upcoming election http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/03/bernie-sanders-grassroots-movement-gains-clinton-machine
I regret the fact the Bernie Sanders has embraced the idea that hes going to live life like the Vermont snow, as pure as he possibly can, while he runs for president, because it weakens his chances and hes an enormously important progressive voice, Lessig said.
President Obama was against super pacs in 2012 but had to use one to keep the race close. I do not like super pacs but any Democratic candidate who wants to be viable has to use a super pac, The super pacs associated with Clinton raised $24 million and so Clinton raised $70 this quarter.
antigop
(12,778 posts)fundraising gap with the evil Republicans... "
Yep. I'm gonna post this whenever I can.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=479290
So predictable.
Gothmog
(145,321 posts)Sanders does not appear to be viable in a general election campaign where the Kochs will be spending $887 millon and the GOP nominee will likely be spending another billion dollars.
Obama did not like super pacs but he had to use a super pac in 2012 to keep the race close. The alternative is another 1972 race where the GOP will carry all but one state
antigop
(12,778 posts)antigop
(12,778 posts)"Therefore we must instead support corporate-sponsored Candidate A, who will help us bridge the
fundraising gap with the evil Republicans... "
Same old, same old.
And we get the same old corporate takeover.
mmonk
(52,589 posts)How committed are you to either?
dsc
(52,162 posts)yea pretty big diffence if you care about minorities voting, women getting medical care, gays getting marriage rights and a whole host of other issues. Of course, if you don't then maybe there isn't a real big difference.
LWolf
(46,179 posts)Admiral Loinpresser
(3,859 posts)Not just among Dems, but also independents, Republicans and self-described conservatives. So, I can't agree with your analysis on Warren.
As to the issue of dark money, Bernie can't campaign against the devil while he is in bed with him, as all other candidates on both sides are (or wannabe). That will not prevent George Soros and others from using dark money on Bernie's behalf if he is the nominee. Also, the new media/netroots/grassroots dynamic will be unlike anything seen before if he is the nominee.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/128021446
Maedhros
(10,007 posts)solely for the reason that she has amassed a huge war chest.
We claim to abhor Citizens United, yet we give in to it.
antigop
(12,778 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Democratic Primary Results: Blue denotes a Clinton win, yellow a Brown win, green a Tsongas win, orange a Kerrey win, and purple a Harkin win
Faced with a relatively shoe-string campaign budget, Brown bucked conventional advertising practices, choosing instead to use an unusual fundraising techniques, such as a toll-free telephone number that adorned all of his campaign material, and a mixture of alternative media that included cable and radio interviews being used in lieu of traditional television commercials in order to get his message out to voters.
In spite of poor showings in the Iowa caucus, in which he received a mere 1.6 percent of the vote, and the New Hampshire primary, which secured him only eight percent, Brown was soon able to manage narrow victories in Maine, Colorado, Nevada, Alaska, and Vermont. Nonetheless, he continued to be considered a long shot for much of the campaign. It was not until shortly after Super Tuesday, when the Democratic primary field had been narrowed to Brown, former Senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts, and frontrunner Governor Bill Clinton, that Brown began to emerge as a serious contender in the eyes of the mainstream media.
http://ballotpedia.org/Jerry_Brown#1992
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)LiberalAndProud
(12,799 posts)We can all buckle under the weight of the money onslaught, or we can vote for the candidate who shuns it. If money decides the next election, hello President Walker and fuck Wisconsin and the fraudulent voting machine that placed him and kept him in office.
I believe our choice is clear, reject money politics or embrace it. The middle ground is democratic (lowercase d) suicide.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)nd my own response there:
So if Bernie gets realistic about the need to raise money, he's a hypocrite.
If he avoids any campaign contribution over $5, he's called an unrealistic ideologue who doesn't understand the political system.
Personally I'm totally comfortable with Bernie getting some donors with big bucks funding his campaign, or running Pacs. I'm also totally comfortable -- in concept -- with Hillary doing the same thing.
The issue is one of scale, focus and nature of the backers, and what they expect in return.
I feel a lot more comfortable with Ben and Jerry or some wealthy movie star contributing to his campaign because they believe in what he stands for. I feel a lot more nervous about Hillary going to the bigwigs at Goldman Sachs and other corrupt oligarchs and raising really big bucks in exchange for God-Knows-What atrocities they are looking for.
Persondem
(1,936 posts)The ad would run something like this ...
Pictures of Marx, Lenin and Mao scroll across the screen with some of their socialist positions being stated or written on screen. The pictures scroll past with a picture of Bernie at the end. The Soviet anthem plays in the background as Bernie's "socialist" voting record is revealed along with his confirmatory statements of being a democratic socialist and his early membership in the Liberty Union Party.
It would be as effective as the Daisy ads from '64.