Bloomberg poll (Obama +13 vs. Romney) called an "outlier"

[Marzupialis]

Political scientist Mark Blumenthal, editor of Pollster.com says the case for this being a random outlier is "strong," based on the fact that polls conducted right before and after do not show such a big lead for Obama.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/20/bloomberg-poll-barack-obama-lead_n_1612758.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

[EC]

1. Lawrence O'Donnell

said this was the first poll of LIKELY voters. All the others up to now have just been registered voters. May suggest a lot of registered voters on the Romney side aren't going to vote.

[Marzupialis]

6. That's wrong

This is not the first poll among LV. There have been others.

[leftynyc]

7. Rasmussen also does Likely Voters

but it leans heavy right so it's pretty much worthless unless a week before an election when they know they have to get it right. Happens every election and all you really have to know is Rass is fox news pollster.

[DailyGrind51]

9. Many in the Republican base will not vote for Romney.

We have those Evangelicals, who won't vote for a Mormon, and the Objectivists, who will not vote for the author of "Romney-care". Of course, there are some disappointed Progressives who will sit this one out, also. The question is whether or not it is "Six of one, half a dozen of another"?

[WI_DEM]

14. No, they will hold their noses to vote for the Mormon over the black guy.

[WI_DEM]

13. Actually among voters 'most enthused to vote' this poll has Romney up by 1

[tularetom]

2. Get used to it

Everything that predicts an Obama victory will be minimized and marginalized.

From now until November.

By every part of the liberal media.

[liberalnationalist]

15. the "liberal media"

is going to have a truckload of eggs smashed in its face come election night...a landslide is brewing...the Mormon Raw Money will be hated by the end of this rediculous ordeal...

the publicon party should be ashamed of themselves for putting up someone so flimsy..

[hrmjustin]

3. This poll is no good because...

... it undercounts whites by 5-7%

[leftynyc]

8. So Pres Obama is up 6-8% instead

I'm good with that.

[DCBob]

12. Me too..

That still translates into a landslide... if its accurate and holds until Nov.

[hrmjustin]

19. that i can not answer but i like the new fl poll out today. n/t

[leftynyc]

21. And what I did

was only if all the whites supposedly discounted voted for Romney which I doubt very much. I didn't see the FL poll yet, I'm off to find and enjoy.

[center rising]

4. Obama is up but...

He does not lead nationally by 13%

[liberalnationalist]

16. i bet he does lead 13% nationally

I have only seen 1 Raw Money bumper sticker out of thousands and thousands of cars...no signs, t shirts, buttons, nothing

Raw Money only has like what..50 billionaires supporting him plus a few hundred thousand voters nationwide who have very low iq's are mostly obese and cross eyed nimwits.

[hrmjustin]

20. poll undercounted whites by 5-7%

look at the fl poll today. i like that one!!!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

22. What about the polls that *UNDERCOUNT* blacks and other minorities?

I have always been very active in politics. Damn right I've never been polled or asked to respond to anything. (And yes, I have a LAN line.)

[hrmjustin]

25. polls that undercount or overcount are no good.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

26. Right. That's my point. So my overall feeling is to take these polls with a grain of salt,

regardless of whether or not the favor our side. They really mean nothing at this point. Just a snapshot in time.

We can start analyzing them after the Democratic and Republican Party conventions.

[hrmjustin]

27. Agreed! n/t

[BeyondGeography]

5. Whatever...the poll shows real problems for Romney

Underwater on favorable/unfavorable, confusion about why he should be President (Bain? Being a governor?), 20 points worse than Obama on "who's out of touch?" And there's more...

Romney is a weak candidate who has been further weakened by his whacked out party, which was jerking itself off today at Eric Holder's expense. Meantime, Bernanke is saying Congress, please do something for the economy. Don't think that Obama isn't going to leverage all of this to the hilt. He has a lot to work with and this poll will not be seen as terribly off base (re. 53% support) in a couple of months, IMO.

[Rosanna Lopez]

10. I hope it gave the GOP a heart attack

It's obvious that this poll is unlikely to be accurate. It would be nice to see Romney that far behind, but it's not realistic. Even McCain in a bad year in 2008 managed to get to 46% on Election Day.

Still, I hope it gave the GOP a heart attack when they saw it come out yesterday morning!

There is an Associated Press poll that has just been released this morning giving Obama a 3 point lead, so that's also a good sign. It's better than Gallup and Rasmussen who have had Romney ahead all week.

[liberalnationalist]

18. Raw Money

ain't near the callibur of McCain...Raw Money is going to lose big...

[DCBob]

11. Figures you would be the one to post this.

[WI_DEM]

17. As much as I'd like to believe this poll--if Obama were up by 13 nationally...

we wouldn't be seeing poll after poll showing Michigan as a toss-up and other states would reflect a bigger Obama lead than they have. So far no other poll has shown this type of result and so until others do it is an outliar.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. I understand what you're saying, but state polls are very different from national polls.

At any rate, I don't believe ANY polls. They are but a snapshot in time. I wish people wouldn't get so worked up over these polls. Whether they bring good or bad news, we should start to be concerned about polls until Labor Day or after the conventions, but not now.

[Rosanna Lopez]

24. An Outlier, But . . .

The poll is probably an outlier, but the good news is that 2 other National polls today gave Obama 3-pt and 4-pt leads (Pew & Associated Press) so at least that means Obama is not sinking and appears to have a small lead nationally. The only 2 pollsters that show him behind are Gallup & Rasmussen (the latter of which is predictable).