PPP: Romney grabs lead in North Carolina (but a big Caveat)

[WI_DEM]

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 48-46. It's a small lead but still significant in that it's the first time we've found Romney ahead in our monthly polling of the state since October.

Romney's gained 7 points on Obama in North Carolina since April, when the President led by a 49-44 margin. Since then Romney's erased what was a 51-38 lead for Obama with independents and taken a 42-41 lead with that voting group. He's also increased his share of the Democratic vote from 15% to 20%, suggesting he's convincing some more conservative voters within the party to cross over.

Voters in the state have significantly warmed up to Romney in the couple of months since he sewed up the Republican nomination. 41% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 46% with a negative one. Those numbers still aren't great but they represent a 24 point improvement on the margin from April when Romney was at a -29 spread (29/58).

HERE'S THE BIG CAVEAT

One caveat with Romney's lead on this poll is that it finds Obama winning the black vote by only a 76/20 margin. That seems like an unrealistically low share of African American voters for Obama. The bottom line on this poll is the same as pretty much every one we've done in the state over the last 18 months- North Carolina is one of the most closely contested toss up states in the country, it could go either way, and the way the campaigns are spending here backs up that assessment.

(If the black vote were what it will end up being 90% or more for Obama then Obama would now be in the lead).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/06/romney-holds-sma.html

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

1. Makes you wonder if the trend has something to do with the anti-gay initiatives.

[hrmjustin]

2. I agree nc will be very close this year.n/t

[RBInMaine]

3. They need to keep BASHING him on Bain, his MA record, and his firing of cops, teachers, and firemen.

Also, the Ryan "Kill Medicare and SS Plan."

[musicblind]

4. NC is closer than I thought it would be, but I still think my state (NC) will go for Obama. n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

5. NC will be close. Obama won it by a very slim margin in '08 & trailed in most polls...

So, anyone expecting a walk there is fooling themselves. It will be tight.

To put these polls into perspective: McCain led in all but three of the polls from the final week of the race:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html#polls

[otohara]

6. After The Big Ass Vote Against LGBT

I figured they go red in November.

N.C. isn't a cool state after all.

[Happydayz]

7. To be fair, California voted against LGBT in 2008, is Ca not a cool state too?

I think Obama will win NC, he has to get the black vote out in a major way. Like others have mentioned, McCain was leading in all the polls leading up to the election. Lets keep our fingers crossed for NC and not bash the state!!