Dems likely to hold Giffords seat

[Tony_FLADEM]

Democrats are headed for a victory in tomorrow's special election to replace Gabby Giffords in the House, but the relevance of the result in Arizona to much of anything else appears limited.

Democrat Ron Barber leads with 53% to 41% for Republican Jesse Kelly, with Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis polling at 4%. Barber is well liked by voters in the district, sporting a 54/38 favorability rating. Kelly, meanwhile, has very high negatives with only 37% of voters rating him positively while 59% have a negative opinion.

We find that the likely electorate for tomorrow's election supported Barack Obama over John McCain 50-44. McCain actually won the district by a 52-46 margin in 2008. This, along with the special election in New York's 26th Congressional District last May, is one of only two races recently where we've found a likely electorate significantly more Democratic than the Presidential one in 2008, and it suggests Democrats are unusually motivated to come out and vote to keep Giffords' seat in their hands.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/06/dems-likely-to-hold-giffords-seat.html

I haven't been following this race, but I assumed the GOP was going to takeover this seat. That's what the media has been saying anyway.

[onehandle]

1. Bad news for the pro-Second Amendment Remedies crowd. nt

[ChazInAz]

2. You bet we're motivated

Just look at her opponent...please!
Jesse Kelly is an appalling excuse for a human being and has no idea of the meaning of the term "public servant", yet he wants to replace Gabby. Examples: he is only technically a resident in this Congressional district, his registered residence is with Mummy and Pater, yet we have no idea where he actually lives (Rather like Mittens); his current campaign, just like his last one, has been completely negative and well-funded by outside interests; he refuses to give interviews to newspapers or other local media outlets; most of his positions on issues are nonsensical and contradictory when we can finally pry any statements out of him; he is incapable of telling the truth.
Essentially, he's Mitt Romney...writ small, crude and mean.