Bush leads GOP field in Virginia, but Clinton ahead for General (polling for dem Primaries)

[William769]

SNIP


On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton is dominant. She gets 64% to 14% for Bernie Sanders, 8% for Jim Webb, 5% for Lincoln Chafee, and 2% for Martin O'Malley. Clinton has 79% support from African Americans, is over 60% with liberals, moderates, men, women, younger voters, and seniors, and is over 50% with whites, Hispanics, and middle aged voters.

The results aren't very good news for home state candidate Jim Webb. He isn't even the most commonly named second choice of voters in the state- Sanders gets 19% on that front with Clinton and Webb both at 13%. And despite having served Virginia in the Senate Webb's name recognition (71%) barely outpaces that of Sanders (68%). In the wake of his refusal to condemn the Confederate flag Webb does particularly poor with African Americans, getting only 3%.
Virginia went for Barack Obama by 4-6 points in 2008 and 2012 and Hillary Clinton starts out similarly well positioned in the state, leading all of her potential Republican opponents by somewhere in the 4-12 point range. The GOP hopefuls who come the closest to Clinton are Ben Carson and Marco Rubio who each trail by 4 at 47/43, and Rand Paul and Scott Walker who each trail by 5 at 47/42. The Republican who does the worst in the state is native son Jim Gilmore who trails by 12 at 47/35. Also trailing by double digits are Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee at 49/39. In between are Chris Christie who trails by 6 at 45/39, Carly Fiorina and Ted Cruz who lag by 7 at 46/39 and 48/41 respectively, and Jeb Bush who's down by 8 at 46/38.

We also tested Bernie Sanders against the leading Republicans- he leads Trump 43/39, but trails Bush 40/39, Walker 39/38, and Rubio 40/38. On average Clinton performs a little under 7 points better than Sanders against the top quartet of GOPers in head to head match ups.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/07/bush-leads-gop-field-in-virginia-but-clinton-ahead-for-general.html

[randys1]

1. With all due respect, if the SOCIALIST is doing that well at this point in the game, well.

I will just repeat what Thom Hartmann just said on his show

"If Bernie is the nominee, he wins for sure"

[William769]

2. If he can overcome Hillary's numbers, more power to him!

[randys1]

4. Exactly, i.e. Bernie isnt running in November UNLESS he beat Hillary the way Obama did

This is why it is tough having people in either camp who are not rising about all the bullshit because at that point it means Bernie is a powerhouse, like Obama was.

All this back and forth, It is embarrassing.

Example:

Are ALL American politicians, some more than others, co-opted in one way or another by the system itself

YES

Are ALL Democratic potential or existing candidates for the WH so much better than the alternative that to not vote for them would be literal suicide?

YES


I remember what Carlin said about politicians and he included Bernie, in that all of them are part of the broken system.

It guides what I do.

[William769]

6. I agree with you.

Even though Hillary is my first choice, she is not my only choice. I will gladly vote for the Democratic nominee once she/he is selected at he convention.

And to the people who say they won't vote for the Democratic nominee if it is __________ (fill in the blank), are the one one's that are going to end up screwing America given the alternative.

[randys1]

7. Are you a premium member, can you do a poll? I wanna know which Hllary supporters

wont vote Dem if she isnt in and which Bernie supporters wont vote Dem if he isnt in, and they dont have to name themselves, though the system here does that I guess.

I really wanna know what the numbers look like here at DU

[William769]

10. I can't speak for Bernie supporters but I have a pretty good idea of the Hillary supporters

And that would be 0 I know & speak to most all of the Hillary supporters and that's what they tell me.

[randys1]

16. That is my suspicion. I wish we could illustrate that to make a point, though.

[Agschmid]

23. Watch out they will label you not pure enough...

[ismnotwasm]

18. I will proudly vote for whoever is the Democratic nominee

Anything less is unthinkable to me

[William769]

19. Exactly!

[LordGlenconner]

20. Same here. Only a moron would see it any other way.

[Cha]

27. You make a good point.

[George II]

22. Sanders is already about 30% behind where Obama was at this point in 2007

[randys1]

24. He is?

[George II]

25. Yes... in many polls back in 2007 Obama was roughly 10 points behind Clinton, and....

....in most polls this year Sanders is roughly 40 points behind Clinton.

There was one poll last week that people like to crow about where Sanders got 25%, but most of the polls show him between 15-20%.

Clinton has occasionally dipped below 60% depending upon the individual poll but for the most part polls put here at 60% or higher.

[peacebird]

3. ^^^This!^^^

[lewebley3]

9. That is setting a low bar: I stopped listing to Tom Hartman: He''s helping the GOP

[randys1]

11. Saying that IF bernie gets the nom he wins helps GOP ?? not if you are paying attention

[lewebley3]

13. 50% of all American's will not vote for a socialist: Sorry just the fact

[randys1]

14. Really? First, that is not a fact, it may be a poll, but not a fact.

2nd, between now and next summer MUCH will change.

Hillary may still get the nom and if she does I will work my ass off for her, but IF Bernie gets it, this MEANS he has tremendous support and that middle group will learn what he is and isnt and enough of them will vote for him.

[lewebley3]

15. Okay, whatever!!

[mythology]

21. Not necessarily

When not under attack a politician's approval ratings go up.

Look at George Bush's approval ratings in 2008 versus now. He was at 25% in October/November 2008.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/03/politics/obama-approval-rating-cnn-poll/

Sanders hasn't really yet been attacked by Hillary Clinton or potential Republican opponents who are either focused on their own scrum, or talking about Hillary.

Please note, I'm not comparing Sanders to Bush as obviously Sanders is both a better public servant and a better human being that Bush, but the general point is valid. Hillary Clinton had a rise in her approval rating after the 2008 nomination was effectively wrapped up as well as for most of her tenure as Secretary of State.

[ismnotwasm]

5. Interesting numbers

While I'm quite pleased for Hillary, I still think O'Malley will gain more that people think.

[PatrickforO]

8. Interesting that Sanders hasn't been to Virginia yet, but is still in a statistical dead heat

with the GOP front runners. This makes Virginia Clinton's to lose, because right now she's sitting pretty.

[William769]

12. If Hillary loses Virginia, Hillary loses the primary.

Under any scenario I don't see Hillary even coming close to losing Virginia.

[DCBob]

26. He had an event in Arlington VA recently,

Packed the house.

[Hawaii Hiker]

17. Its amazing (in the good way) how Virginia is a blue leaning state now

Think about it....Carter won everywhere in the south in the 1976 election - BUT Virginia....Clinton won 2 terms cleaning up in the south, but not Virginia...

Now, Obama won the state twice by solid margins....2 Democratic senators....Though having a Democratic governor is not new for VA, usually the party that wins the previous presidential election, the OPPOSITE party wins the governor race the following year in Virginia....But that didn't happen in 2013 as Terry McAulife won that race..

And Clinton stands an excellent chance to win the general election in Virginia next year..

[DCBob]

28. This says it all..

"On average Clinton performs a little under 7 points better than Sanders against the top quartet of GOPers in head to head match ups."

Why would anyone want to risk losing this election to the Republicans by supporting Sanders who is clearly a weaker candidate??

[William769]

29. Sanders gun policy.

Republicans like that!