Here is how the Democratic Primaries will shake out.

[RandySF]

Bernie will do well in New England, win a handful of Midwestern states (maybe even Iowa) and win Oregon, Washington or both. But that's as far as he gets. Hillary will sweep the South on through the rest of country. Game over. There's no probable scenario where Bernie wins. Sorry, he's a great guy but it's just not going to happen.

[sgtbenobo]

1. Let me help you. THX1138

This is not about you.

[brewens]

2. Maybe if we had to decide right now as you might prefer. We have a whole bunch of time left.

We will be seeing just what Bernie can do.

[ibegurpard]

3. could be

[SamKnause]

4. The Mega Millions drawing is tonight.

Do you know the winning numbers ???

[restorefreedom]

39. oooo i could really use that info too

great thinking!

[Champion Jack]

51. Lol

[Snotcicles]

60. Who do you pick at Belmont in the sixth? nt.

[jaysunb]

5. Remember this name...especially in the Southern states

Jim Webb.

[Sherman A1]

6. perhaps

or, perhaps not.....

[JI7]

7. i predict what happened with the Gore Bradley 2000 race

[Ken Burch]

8. If you're so sure of that, why bother starting this thread?

The whole "we can only hold the White House if we keep talking Bernie's chances down" meme is just getting silly.

[madokie]

9. Getting desperate is what this is all about

Bernie is drawing crowds while Hillary is drawing in the money. Money doesn't have a vote, people do and thats why Bernie Sanders has as good of a shot at the white house as anyone in a long time has had.
Bernie is the next POTUS

[DFW]

15. Money may not have a vote, but it buys lots of votes

There's a very good reason the Citizens United decision was the worst SCOTUS decision since Bush v. Gore. If money didn't matter, we wouldn't care about Citizens United.

[madokie]

21. No, money doesn't buy votes

it buys air time for candidates and supporters to inundate the undecided to either vote for their candidate or to not vote for the opposition.
At the moment it looks like Bernie is building one hell of a following. People who will be voting for him so in that vein I don't think money will translate into votes for Hillary. If I remember right Hillary had a shit pot full of money once before too.
Bernie is going to win this one.

[DFW]

32. It's not worth an argument.

Twelve years ago, a friend of mine, another New Yorker who had settled in Vermont, was on fire, too. A year later, things looked much different.

Let's check back in a year and see where things stand.

[Man of Distinction]

65. The problem was that Dean was a centrist..

Bernie is a Democratic socialist, which embodies FDR/JFK type policies, and I believe 12 years ago, the timing was not right for Dean. He started something - Internet activism that got people involved. His DFA is still regarded a very decent PAC that I still contribute from time to time.

People are so sick of the status quo, that they are ready to dump the right-wing concept and go to the other side of spectrum and see if it helps the sagging middle class. Bernie is right - it is the middle class that is the engine to the American economy.

[DFW]

75. People didn't call Howard a centrist twelve years ago. Labels & slogans. Might as well be Fox Noise.

When he first hit the scene (the national one, anyway), he was derided by nearly everyone as the extreme left wing of the Party. It's all just a label. Bernie uses the label Democratic socialist, but that's no more than a label, either, and a poorly chosen one at that. He's a classic Social Democrat in the Scandinavian vein. The PDS (Partei des demokratischen Sozialismus) is the renamed version of the East German SED (Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deurschlands), which was unapologetic about their shootings at the Berlin Wall and locking up--and sometimes discreet killing--of uncomfortable dissidents who would neither shut up or leave. Tell a northern or Eastern European you're a "Democratic Socialist," and they'll probably ask you how many people your uncle shot at the East-West German border before it fell. They figured it out in short time, though, and dropped that label, too. Now it's just "Die Linken (the leftists," and they don't have nice things to say about the border killings by the old SED regime any more, either.

Agreed about the middle class, though. It's why Germany has it relatively good these days and Greece is a basket case. One looked after their own, and one ignored everyone who wasn't a government employee (one employed person in four for crying out loud, how long did the think they could get away with that, anyhow?) or a gazillionaire.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

16. Actually, Bernie is drawing crowds,...

While Hillary is drawing rope around the press....

[Mnpaul]

17. Does this mean

that Bernie has Hillary "on the ropes"

[madokie]

20. kinda looks that way

Huh

[emulatorloo]

54. The way the U.S. press treats Democrats and real people kinda makes me want to tie them up too

Some exceptions, but most of them are just megaphones for the RNC, RoveCo, and Koch Bros

I have no doubt they are sharpening their knives to go after and lie about Bernie.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

59. They can't do it to his face because he steers every interview into the issues....

They don't want that. They want political reporting to be like Hollywood reporting.

[emulatorloo]

61. Agreed, he is great at that.

[hrmjustin]

44. The whole hillary Clinton can't win meme is ridiculous.

[GeorgeGist]

68. Either your reading comprehension skills are poor ...

or you're responding to another thread.

[hrmjustin]

69. I think yours are.

Good night.

[Ken Burch]

73. It's not a meme I was personally spreading.

The notion that she can win and no other Dem candidate can is silly, too, though.

The notion she can get votes no other Dem can get is pretty much discredited, at this point.

Who the hell does she appeal to that the other candidates don't?

And what happens to her support when all the Nineties attack lines get brought back in the fall, as all of them will be?

I'll support her if she's nominated, but Dem voters have to take all of the above into consideration.

[valerief]

10. Thank you for your concern. nt

[Indepatriot]

11. Who knew Nostradamus was on DU?!!!

Whose gonna win the Superbowl this year? I wanna get my bets down now, and since I don't need to contribute to Bernie's campaign anymore I'll have some extra ca$h....

[Rosa Luxemburg]

42. LOL!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. I want freakin' extra pepperoni on my pizza!

[NCTraveler]

36. High grease content. Not healthy. But if that's your wish. nt.

[murielm99]

13. What Midwestern states?

I can't think of any, other than Iowa, which I kind of doubt.

I used to have a family member in Iowa who could gauge these sorts of things. She was a caucus leader. But she has moved.

[RandySF]

33. Wisconsin, North Dakota and Minnesota

I should also mention that he could win Colorado in the West.

[murielm99]

56. I respectfully disagree. n/t

[Man of Distinction]

66. Wisconsin, Colorado and Minnesota...

North Dakota, if he gets lucky.. hell, I think he'll get all the rural states....

[murielm99]

74. I am a Midwesterner.

I don't see any enthusiasm for him here. I don't see name recognition. Even in liberal and urban areas, he is not that well liked. He is not a Democrat, he is a socialist. That has little appeal for Midwesterners.

[Man of Distinction]

77. Democratic socialist

not a socialist. Big difference.

[murielm99]

80. The distinction will not be made

by the average voter.

I am seeing no significant support, outside of Madison.

[PoliticAverse]

14. Which states will Joe Biden win? n/t

[wyldwolf]

18. you're being generous.

[morningfog]

22. To Hillary.

[wyldwolf]

23. to Sanders. He'll be done by April 1.

[morningfog]

24. I can't wait for the debates, if Hillary shows,

that is.

[wyldwolf]

25. irrelevant. Bernie can't win the southern and western primaries and caucuses in March

[morningfog]

27. Watch the polls when he campaigns there.

You'll need a new line of attack. Your racist angle will no longer be viable and you work will be harder. Good luck!

[wyldwolf]

29. Sure thing.

[morningfog]

71. Says anonymous DU poster, lol.

He had six months to campaign there. Watch it tighten. It will pain you no doubt. But, you've been through it before right?

[sheshe2]

76. Aren't you an anonymous DU poster as well?

Says anonymous DU poster, lol.

View profile
He had six months to campaign there. Watch it tighten. It will pain you no doubt. But, you've been through it before right?

[NCTraveler]

37. Why wouldn't she show? nt.

[morningfog]

46. Good question.

There are a variety of ways in which a Sanders/Clinton debate could be avoided.

[NCTraveler]

47. I didn't ask the question nor do I think it is a good one.

I see elaborating isn't in your future.

You said "If she shows"

[morningfog]

48. I have nothing to predict.

I just have my own doubts as to whether six Clinton/Sanders debates will actually take place. Hillary has nothing to gain and everything to lose by participating in such a venue. I wouldn't be surprised if Bernie is dis-invited or precluded for some reason or another.

The first debate, supposedly to take place in August or September, has not even been scheduled yet and it is July.

[JI7]

64. Obama didn't win any primary debates

[virtualobserver]

52. done winning?

you may be right

[TheKentuckian]

19. Glad you've dropped the pretense and have segued to unabashed Clinton rather than Clinton as a

Sanders supporter.

[RandySF]

34. As I said, I like the guy, but this is how I see it playing out.

[aikoaiko]

26. First, HRC fans gave up NH, then IA, then....

... well we see what next.

At one time HRC fans thought losing NH and IA was impossible. Now not so much.

[frylock]

72. They're foaming the runways for those losses.

[Renew Deal]

28. You're the first person to actually name states that Bernie might win

Most people don't answer that question.

[RandySF]

35. I should have mentioned Colorado.

[ieoeja]

49. I've posted lists a few times.

Iowa is not Hillary friendly. She came in third last time. And I don't really expect her to do any better this time around. O'Malley or Webb might catch on there. But for now I see it as Bernie's to lose.

New Hampshire has been kind to both Clintons in the past. But Hillary's poor performance in Iowa is going to make some people think she is yesterday's news. Lots of people like to go with the winner. Add Bernie's popularity in New Hampshire, and I again see it as Bernie's to lose.

At some point people in the media are going to remind voters of Hillary's racist campaign in 2008. Someone might even point out that after the DLC abandoned working class economic interests, they started recruiting candidates who were moderate on social issues. South Carolina goes Bernie.

Hillary has a problem in Nevada. Las Vegas has one less delegate than the rest of the state which is largely rural. And Hillary is despised in rural areas. That is how Obama was able to run up a string of victories against Hillary last time. She can't win in the country. Western states are pretty much a sure thing for Bernie in the primary.

By this point people are going to see Hillary as not a viable candidate. I expect Super Tuesday will be largely a sweep for Bernie. And Hillary drops shortly thereafter.

[HereSince1628]

30. People posting such 'excellent' clairvoyance PLEASE PUT UP SPOILER ALERTS!!!!!!

Respect that some of us want to be able to TiVo the primary season and watch it later.

[99Forever]

31. Well fuck.

And I just put that damn Bernie bumpersticker on my car. Guess I'll have to junk it now.

[LWolf]

38. Thank you, Nostradamus.

I think I clicked through something about your prophesies on the tv just rececently.

[restorefreedom]

40. on vacation in a couple of weeks, can i get the weather in the north atlantic?

thanks

[lame54]

41. can i get this weeks lottery numbers as well

[Rosa Luxemburg]

43. Oh yes!

[AgingAmerican]

45. If only you had evidence to back it up!

...which you do not.

[edgineered]

50. Never had any confidence in prophets or bean counters before. nt

[tiredtoo]

53. History lesson

in 1896 populist candidate William Jennings Bryan ran against the hand picked McKinley. McKinley was picked by the three richest men in the U.S. Rockefeller, Carnegie and Morgan. Bryan had campaigned on a promise of breaking up the corporate power structure. Bryan used whistle stop campaigning throughout the country and appeared to be the peoples choice but, through voter intimidation and media control the wealthy corporatist won.
The next election in an effort to squelch the rise of Theodore Roosevelt they had him selected as vice president under McKinley. (vice presidency was a ticket to oblivion). There plan backfired however when McKinley was assassinated 6 months into his second term.
If there is a point to this note it is: We have to join together in helping our David defeat their Goliath.

[Quixote1818]

55. Sanders may win everything but the South. He is very popular her in New Mexico

and I bet he does well in California, Washington, Oregon, the Midwest and of course the NE. Yes, I suspect Hillary will do well in the South but it may not be enough.

[HappyMe]

57. Look! It's Nostradamus! And he's got a Magic 8 Ball!

[brooklynite]

58. IMPORTANT NEW DU RULE!!! No predicting that Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic nomination!

Apparently, any assessment of how the nomination will play out is considered speculative, and offends some people.

[restorefreedom]

62. speaking only for myself

i am not offended.

amused, maybe.

it is just soooo early, only pol junkies are paying any attention right now

but people do tend to want to predict good things for their candidate.

did i mention why bernie will win?

[demwing]

63. Don't apologize

Embrace the bullshit, own it, and spread it with pride. In a few days, no one will remember what you wrote any way.

[GoneOffShore]

67. Ah, someone with a crystal ball.

Have you got the PowerBall numbers for Wednesday?

No?

Thought not.

[Blue_In_AK]

70. Keep telling yourself that.

It's early, and anything can happen.

[ljm2002]

78. Just 2 months ago...

...there was no probable scenario where Bernie would win Iowa and New Hampshire. There was no probable scenario where he would collect $15M in donations from small donors. There was no probable scenario where he would be drawing record crowds.

So, while I do agree that it is improbable for Bernie to win the Democratic primary, I do not agree that "it's just not going to happen". A lot of improbable things happen every day.

Remember Howard Dean's comments on Morning Joe after Bernie's Denver rally:

(transcript excerpt from http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/06/23/1395700/-Republicans-for-Bernie-Sanders):

Howard Dean lays it out after they ask him why he's chuckling:

"Because I've seen this for 40 years... people underestimate him.

...

I remember my last election after I did civil unions and I got clobbered and in a certain part of the state that always votes conservative Bernie Sanders got every vote that my very conservative opponent got. He has a tremendous appeal to ordinary working people who feel like they're getting screwed."

See the video clip here:

http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/sanders-draws-capacity-crowds-in-denver-469257795761

[JustAnotherGen]

79. Except - there's going to be a first, second, and third debate

on T.V. - I hate to say it . . .

There's another guy who is going to ruin the scenario you put out there.

We engage in lookism and ageism and sexism in this country. It's what/who we are. These three won't go away in the next year.

[MBplayer]

81. It's tough to call until we know for certain whether or not Biden is in

If so, the union, AA, and establishment vote will be split...IMO he takes the majority in the first 2 groups. That's good news for Bernie supporters.

Hillary vs Biden in SC will be interesting. She may very well go 0 for 3 to begin the primaries, especially if the press continues to make Joe look like Jesus Christ.