Here’s the Real Reason Hillary Clinton Has a Lock on the Democratic Nomination

[wyldwolf]

Hillary Clinton is a near-lock for the Democratic nomination for many reasons, but among the most significant is that her challengers have minimal appeal to the party's base of African-American voters.

Clinton learned firsthand the importance of their support in 2008, when many of them abandoned her presidential campaign to get behind the first viable African-American presidential candidate. This time, she should have little concern about that: Barack Obama can't run again, and the candidates who are running haven't done much to rally African-American support.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, the challenger with the most momentum, represents a state that's 95 percent white, where Asian-Americans and multi-racial voters outnumber blacks. He's focused most of his campaign message on income inequality, constraining Wall Street excess, and campaign finance reform, while avoiding discussions on race relations, urban policing, or gun control. Only 25 percent of non-white Democratic voters said they'd even consider backing the senator's presidential bid, according to last month's NBC/Wall Street Journal survey.

Polls in Iowa and New Hampshire may show Clinton with less-than-commanding leads over Sanders and everyone else, but take those results with a grain of salt; they don't mean much going forward. Iowa and New Hampshire have among the most homogeneous Democratic electorates in the country, demographically disconnected from the party's base in most other states.

Even a best-case scenario for Clinton's challengers wouldn't yield any long-term success. If, say, Sanders carried New Hampshire, he'd immediately need to translate that momentum to South Carolina, where African-Americans make up a majority of the Democratic primary vote. It's almost impossible to see Sanders's support—what political analyst Michael Barone calls his "Birkenstock constituency"—translating down South. Meanwhile in Nevada, where immigration is the dominant issue among Democratic activists, Sanders's relative silence on the subject makes him a poor fit. (Sanders helped scuttle George W. Bush's efforts for comprehensive immigration reform in 2007, attacking the bipartisan legislation for driving down wages for working-class Americans.)

http://www.nationaljournal.com/hillary-clinton-2016-democratic-nomination-20150705

[PADemD]

1. He was there in 1963.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) talks about the 50th anniversary of the March on Washington lead by Martin Luther King, Jr. Sen. Sanders attended the speech while a student at the University of Chicago and explains what it was like to witness that historic event.
Published on Aug 16, 2013

[Sheepshank]

4. I'm pretty sure students will realize that attending a historic moment 50 years ago

is an amazing feat. That Sanders didn't translate that into actual social reforms in the following 50 years is sad.

[demwing]

14. Snort!

Damn that Sanders! He didn't single-handedly solve America's social issues! Damn his white hair and his white state!

[blackspade]

27. Yes, because he is a one man Congress.

[Sheepshank]

31. did Bernie sponsor or initiate any bills that addressed black civil rights issues.....

....that significantly changed for the better or lightened the burden of a huge hurting population, (since his famous walk with MLK)?

[retrowire]

51. did hillary?

[Sheepshank]

96. do try and stay on issue. Your team raised the issue of the Bernie and the MLK walk

if you want to start a new anti Hillary thread, go for it. But until you respond to the question to any real satisfaction, I'm not budging.

[retrowire]

100. i know everyone is deeply competitive

but you could have just treated a sincerely interested person like myself with respect. I guess no one is willing to tell me what Hillary has done for black voters.

if Bernie actively took to the streets for black rights then that's more effort than most politicians can show.

I understand you're tense because that's how politics renders us, but let's share knowledge. that's all the knowledge I have. now it's your turn. educate me. I am a potential voter who is pro bernie. but tell me what I don't know. I am no fool.

[retrowire]

124. a day later

am I supposed to take your silence as evidence that there is no answer? don't look at anyone as being on a separate team, look at me as a fellow american. I only seek knowledge.

[blackspade]

54. Well I count at least a dozen sponsored or initiated bills that would directly benefit

the African-American community from fair housing, nutrition, food stamps, education, livable wages, voter access, etc.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/browse?sponsor=400357

How about Clinton?

Well here ya go:

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/browse?sponsor=300022

It would seem that both have only three bills that were signed into law. None had anything to do with Civil Rights.

So this entire line of attack is bullshit.

[Sheepshank]

60. exactly!!! walking 50 years ago, meant really nothing in the end (added: for Bernie).

it didn't translate into Bernie making sweeping social changes.

[blackspade]

64. That doesn't prove your point at all.

But thanks for trying!

[Sheepshank]

69. It disproves the attempt to portray that this walk with MLK, really translated into action.

I don't understand why the sudden interest that because Bernie walked, it meant that he would actually do something about social injustice in any big way.

[blackspade]

75. No, it shows that you don't understand how the legislative process works.

One can be for, and support, civil rights and not be successful in pushing through bills in Congress.
Clinton is in the same boat.
So this line of attack is pointless.
Sanders has been a staunch defender of civil rights and policies that help the poor and working families.

[Sheepshank]

77. I've been around the block a few dozen times.

I know how it works and the likleyhood of Bernie social legislation every making it out of the House should he be elected.

[NJCher]

87. thanks

that cut to the chase.


Cher

[blackspade]

90. Your welcome!

[Sheepshank]

70. hey...at least you spelled you're correctly. n/t

[chknltl]

80. Perfect!

[retrowire]

101. nice!

someone shows up with some facts. THANK YOU.

[Depaysement]

91. ROTFL!

[Thinkingabout]

2. I work a voting precinct and have noticed a larger number of our minorities (said when caucasians

are now a minority in my county)are turning out to vote, and BTW my county has voted Democrat in the last few elections. I am excited to see their turnout, they are becoming involved. I ask a friend about the number of younger black females voting and her answer is they are tired of the crap going on everyday. This is how we can win elections, one vote at a time.

[blackspade]

29. Shouldn't that be...

"...has voted Democratic in the last few..." ?

As in the Democratic Party?

[NCTraveler]

48. Democrat works just fine there.

Considering the positive tone of their post, it's interesting what you take issue with.

[blackspade]

57. I just loath the GOP framing that has been accepted by the younger generations.

[NCTraveler]

62. Nothing about that is gop framing.

Really weak attempt on your part to use that as a form to discredit a poster. Also, what in the world does age have to do with it? It is perfectly acceptable, here and in other areas in life, to use that term in just the way it was. You are simply using it as a very weak attempt to discredit a poster. Look how positive their post is. Just look at it. Then you come in and attempt to play whack a mole with it due to a lack of reading comprehension.

That post has nothing to do with your "concerns" about "GOP framing" or "younger generations."

[blackspade]

71. No discredit intended.

I was correcting a misuse of the term Democrat.
One votes for/as a democrat. One votes Democratic.

And yes, the post overall was positive. However, the use of 'democrat' in that context did sour it for me somewhat.
So your attack on me is baseless.

[Action_Patrol]

58. It's only a slur here.

Nobody else ever takes offense to it.

[blackspade]

93. That's exactly my issue.

The GOP slur has become so accepted, even Democratic party members use it.


But, whatever. I guess I'll go back to shaking my fist at the kids on my lawn.

[Dream Girl]

34. Our minorities?

[NCTraveler]

47. "I work a voting precinct and have noticed a larger number of our minorities "

Yes, the minorities that come into their precinct. What's the problem?

[november3rd]

3. I read this a few weeks ago

It wasn't convincing then, and it is even less so, now.

Sure, Clinton is the overwhelming favorite among all groups polled. But as Bernie's candidacy rolls out, he's gaining support from every stripe in the rainbow. There are still six months before the primary season starts. It's not a lot of time, but it may be just enough for the grass roots to catch fire for Bernie.

[Cali_Democrat]

49. The article was created July 5th

How could you have read it a few weeks ago?

[Dr Hobbitstein]

118. I'm guessing the poster drives this car

[Triana]

5. Sanders was active in the civil rights movement,organized for SNCC, marched in 1963 for civil rights

This assertion that he "only represents whites" does not hold water for me.

It seems to me too, that the issues Sanders talks about would benefit African Americans as well ie: income inequality, constraining Wall St excess, campaign finance reform, voting rights, fair wages, climate change, etc. Those issues are all-inclusive - not black or white issues. That Sanders marched with MLK for civil rights back in his 20s certainly should not be ignored by anyone - political pundits or African Americans and certainly not the Clinton campaign.

He was active in the civil rights movement. Sanders was an organizer for the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee and participated in the historic March on Washington in 1963 as a 22-year-old student at the University of Chicago. "It was a question for me of just basic justice — the fact that it was not acceptable in America at that point that you had large numbers of African-Americans who couldn't vote, who couldn't eat in a restaurant, whose kids were going to segregated schools, who couldn't get hotel accommodations living in segregated housing," he told the Burlington Free Press. "That was clearly a major American injustice and something that had to be dealt with."

http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/04/29/399818581/5-things-you-should-know-about-bernie-sanders

It appears to me that perhaps some pundits and supporters of Clinton are hoping they can make this non-issue into one -- and to do so based on little but the assertion itself nevermind facts or Sanders' history. Perhaps they're hoping to create Sanders' achilles heel - use his alleged non-support of African American issues or alleged lack of support from African Americans as a battering ram to fend off Sanders' monentum. IOW, they perhaps seek to use this type of propaganda CREATE such lack of support where it does not or should not even exist. This would certainly curtail any progress Sanders might make with voters.

Very interesting.

[Dream Girl]

40. Lots for folks "marched" with MLK

I don't think that is going to make one iota of difference to African Americans. Wat have you done for me lately? And yes I'm African American.

[Triana]

50. . . .

The issues Sanders talks about would benefit African Americans as well ie: income inequality, constraining Wall St excess, campaign finance reform, voting rights, fair wages, climate change, etc. Those issues are all-inclusive - not black or white issues.

[retrowire]

55. lots of folks

but only 2 politicians.

one of which was Bernie.

[frylock]

86. So what has Clinton done for you lately?

[Sheepshank]

97. Squirrel n/t

[frylock]

99. Nothing

bupkis

[Triana]

104. What's this?

Last edited Mon Jul 6, 2015, 08:30 PM - Edit history (1)

I don't hear of Ms. Clinton talking about this stuff much today. And she certainly did not do so 50 years ago, either. I do hear it from Sanders. . .both then and now. He's been quite consistent about it. I don't know what Hillary Clinton has done for African Americans lately. But I know Bernie Sanders has been consistently working on their behalf for 50 years.



Sanders: Civil rights was a very important part of it. I was very active in the Congress of Racial Equality at the University of Chicago. I got arrested in trying to desegregate Chicago’s school system. I was very active in demanding that the University of Chicago not run segregated housing, which it was doing at that time. We were active in working with our brothers and sisters in SNCC [the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee]… at that point helping them with some very modest financial help. So, yes, I was active. And I do not separate the civil-rights issue from the fact that 50 percent of African-American young people are either unemployed or underemployed. Remember the March on Washington—what was it about? “Jobs and Freedom.” The issue that Dr. King raised all the time was: This is great if we want to desegregate restaurants or hotels, but what does it matter if people can’t afford to go to them? That’s still the issue today.

“I do not separate the civil-rights issue from the fact that 50 percent of African-American young people are unemployed or underemployed.” -Bernie Sanders

In the 1960s Ms. Clinton was working for Barry Goldwater. All this makes me think that this assessment of Sanders as "not representing African Americans" is really just incorrect.

LINK:

http://www.thenation.com/article/bernie-sanders-speaks/




https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/618164350537363456

"What's he done for me lately"? Well...THIS ^ - I don't hear ANY other politicians even talking about it!

[WinstonSmith4740]

73. So true.

It seems to me too, that the issues Sanders talks about would benefit African Americans as well ie: income inequality, constraining Wall St excess, campaign finance reform, voting rights, fair wages, climate change, etc. Those issues are all-inclusive - not black or white issues.

This pretty much sums it up for me...do people really think these issues only affect white people? If any group knows about income inequality & voting rights, it's our African-American brothers & sisters.

I was pretty much in the "Well, he can't win, but at least he'll pull the conversation to the left" camp, but I'm not so sure Hillary has this wrapped up. I'd love to be able to vote for the first woman President, but right now, our country needs actions, not words. There's no doubt in my mind Hillary will say all the right things in the campaign. I'd like to think she'd make good on her words, and I'm sure she'd try. I'm not so sure Corporate America will let her, and the ties are just too tight. If she's the candidate, I'll vote for her in a heartbeat (because, well, Republicans), but I'm really beginning to think Bernie might pull this off.

Also, never underestimate "folksy charm". People love it. Reagan had it. Junior faked it for years, and people lapped it up. Bernie is real. He may be "professorial" and all that, but people understand he's smart, talking for himself, and on their behalf. That cuts across ALL lines, racial included. I think more African Americans will vote for him than the pundits think...they are no more "one issue voters" than anyone else, and for anyone to insinuate so is just plain insulting.

[sadoldgirl]

6. No, why don't you give the real reason

why people think she has a lock on it?

I have talked to neighbors and others who state very clearly:
"The party and the machine will ram her down our throat."

It is not the people, because the matter of old same old same
comes up as well a lot of distrust.

I bet when I go to my caucus the democratic party members
organizing it, they will all cheer HRC.

The "party" has left a lot of us, and if it gets its way in 2016
you will find a huge exodus.

[morningfog]

7. This is the HIllary Inevitable Mantra. We'll see if it's true when Bernie campaigns in the South

and West. I have a feeling, a new mantra will then be born.

[brewens]

126. It's sounding like desperation more every day. Trying to convince themselves and everyone

else that Hillary is inevitable. They would love it if we had to vote today before Hillary slips and Bernie gains any more ground. Give Bernie more time to get around, more tv appearances and we'll see how it looks when it is time to vote. I wonder how he'll do on the late night shows?

[mylye2222]

8. Anpther Sanders-bashing thread...

Sanders is sexist/Sanders is racist..... bla
bla...

BUT Bernie Sanders DO NOT cozys with Kissinger. He doesnt havre money from WS. He always voted straight progressive liberal, not Republican-lite. But for the Third-Way Candidate supporters it is certainly only less important quesyions....

[MoonRiver]

11. And of course there's no bashing of Hillary by the Bernie crowd.

Oh wait...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251425939

[NCTraveler]

59. The hypocrisy is amazing.

Yet they never made the same comment when a Sanders supporter falsely accused Hillary of having an old man beat up.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026634558

[MoonRiver]

66. Author self-deleted. Probably a good thing.

And the thing is, if someone doesn't like a candidate, argue your case rationally. Mud slinging usually means one doesn't have anything of substance to debate.

[Sheepshank]

35. The heading was pro-Hillary

You have been one to dish out Hillary critisms in several ops you started, and yet you complain when an article identifies voting and caucus realities that are not good forBernie? you need to look in the mirror.

[rock]

9. I believe you are correct

in your whole analysis. Good job.

[demwing]

10. "Minimal exposure to" =/= "Minimal appeal to" African Americans

But you'll keep slinging this trash, even though you know it's trash.

Classy.

[Ed Suspicious]

13. It's straight up trash. Exactly.

[sheshe2]

12. KnR

[Agschmid]

16. Racist witch!?!??!

Seriously? WTF.

Your post is OTT and out line.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

19. Prove me wrong. No racism in 2007-8?

Hillary didn't play dog whistle politics referring to "hard working white people"?

Bill Clinton didn't make racist statements about Jesse Jackson?

Geraldine Ferarro didn't claim that his race was the reason why people supported Obama, even though Hillary enjoyed overwhelming support from black voters initially?

Hillary didn't allude to the assassination of Bobby Kennedy during a time when Obama was receiving an unprecedented number of death threats?

They all went on Faux News to ridicule and play racial dog whistle politics, knowing that working class white Democrats weren't supporting Obama.

Pretend that you don't know it. You're either being dishonest or have forgotten.

But neither Hillary, her husband, nor their surrogates ever issued an apology for this behavior.

And despond these premature polls, many black voters remember and have not forgiven the Clintons!

Despicable people!!

[mylye2222]

24. And besides, lets no firget how in

2004 while faking a Kerry support they backstabbed him in the back and therefore sided with BushInc to make certain Hillary could enjoy a 2008 bid!

You are right. They act despicably in many ways.

[MoonRiver]

83. Wow, you forgot the

[6chars]

32. context

that was 2008, not 2016. besides the Clintons explained why these were not racist

[rury]

82. You are absolutely right Liberal_Stalwart71

I and many that I know have NOT forgotten Hillary's racially tinged 2008 campaign and the racist dog whistles employed by her, Bill and her other minions, including Geraldine Ferraro and the despicable PUMAs.
No primary vote for Hillary from THESE quarters!!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

20. Prove me wrong...

Hillary didn't play dog whistle politics referring to "hard working white people"?

Bill Clinton didn't make racist statements about Jesse Jackson?

Geraldine Ferarro didn't claim that his race was the reason why people supported Obama, even though Hillary enjoyed overwhelming support from black voters initially?

Hillary didn't allude to the assassination of Bobby Kennedy during a time when Obama was receiving an unprecedented number of death threats?

They all went on Faux News to ridicule and play racial dog whistle politics, knowing that working class white Democrats weren't supporting Obama.

Pretend that you don't know it. You're either being dishonest or have forgotten.

But neither Hillary, her husband, nor their surrogates ever issued an apology for this behavior.

And despond these premature polls, many black voters remember and have not forgiven the Clintons!

Despicable people!!

[George II]

33. Usually when people post a laundry list of things, they give actual, REAL examples of them. Where??

[Agschmid]

45. You won't get them now the poster is gone from the thread.

[mylye2222]

21. And so thirsty of power.

Dont forget Bill also had that kind of comment re then-Senator Obama in 2008 primary season "A few decades ago that guy would have carried our luggages"...

[Gamecock Lefty]

17. Spot On!!!

One of the other threads (to which I have been BLOCKED from responding because I'm not a Bernie hack, although I've never said a disparaging word about him) made the following quotes:

“If people don’t support her now, they never will.” “I use to look at charts like this in business (that show Bernie gaining in Iowa) – if we saw something like this it’s time for a major strategy meeting.”

To which I say wrong on both counts. These are scare quotes, words used to drum up excitement in whomever you support not named Hillary.

Hillary has said from the day she declared that she wants to earn every vote. We knew if Bernie ran for Prez (or his twin Elizabeth) that Hillary would lose some support. It’s natural. Races tighten as the journey progresses. To say otherwise is being disingenuous.

But the fact is Hillary’s lowest % can beat most of the other’s highest, including Bernie’s.

[Man of Distinction]

18. Clinton was a lock in 2008

Look what was the end result....

Sorry, not buying what the establishment is selling.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

22. Her stubbornness and scorched earth optics turned people off.

RACISM PUT BLACK VOTERS SQUARELY IN OBAMA'S CORNER!!

When Democrats disrespect their most loyal constituency, this is what happens. Black voters ran away from the Clintons in droves when the Clintons started with their racist Southern Strategy bullshit and divided the party.

[CTBlueboy]

85. There you have it folks

Black voters saw right thru the Clintons BS.

If HRC, Her team, and supporters really think that they have the AA on lock they going to be surprise as they were in 08'

How can I as African American go to the poll and vote for candidate that advocated for bill that created more prisons,and than come back 21 years later say she want to address the mass incarceration really

You know how many live were ruin because Crime Bill of 94'

[Le Taz Hot]

74. Welcome to DU.

Hang on to your britches, it's primary time around here.

[Sheepshank]

25. I was so torn between hillary and Obama last time around

I don't have that same "tug" between Hillary and another Dem candidate.

She is a very strong player that will lead the country well.

[Iliyah]

26. K & R

[Roland99]

28. Rather myopic. It's essentially claiming African-Americans don't care about economic policies.

[Ed Suspicious]

46. 53% African American youth unemployment. Yeah, I'd be willing to bet they care deeply

about economic policies.

[leveymg]

78. There are 2 essential fallacies in this meme: Senators from white states don't care about minorities

and minorities don't care about them, and second, AAs aren't economic progressives, as you so aptly point out.

Neither is a very appealing notion, and both are racially divisive memes that repeat the old campaign smear, "Your candidate doesn't care about people like us", insert name of religious, ethnic or racial group.

An old smear, a very moldy smear.

[Fred75]

30. Martin Luther King

Bernie Sanders marched with Martin Luther King.
When this is made more public, I
think things will change.
Fred75

[Dream Girl]

36. Welcome to DU!

[Sheepshank]

41. a march 50 years ago...and how did that translate to actual change for the black community?

I don't recall Bernie making any sweeping changes.

Showing up the dance doesn't mean much.

[frylock]

88. And Clinton's sweeping changes?

Can you list those?

[Sheepshank]

92. I'm not the one making the claim that Bernie's walk 50 years ago means something today. n/t

[frylock]

94. No, but you're making the claim that Bernie's walk 50 years ago means nothing today..

but getting back to Clinton's sweeping changes....

[Sheepshank]

95. haa haa.....I was right

As it turns out, people shouldn't bring up things that doesn't really say what they think it says. If people want Bernie's march with MLK to have meant something 50 years later, perhaps they could have come up with a time line of subsequent events related to the walk. Thi is just another example of all the 'talk' and very little 'do' when it comes to Bernie.

[frylock]

98. Still awaiting examples of Clinton's sweeping changes.

[Sheepshank]

107. I never made claims of Clinton's activity..the claim was made re: Bernie...do try to keep up

and quite trying ti divert the topic to issues unrelated to the topic at hand. yhou are welcome to start a new thread with this new topic if you wish.

[frylock]

109. Oh, okay..

Just JAQing off about Sanders' lack of sweeping changes. But let's just ignore Clinton's record, or lack thereof. Got it.

[democrank]

37. I`m still laughing at Michael Barone`s analysis of Bernie Sanders` appeal.

It`s true that some of Vermont`s Birkenstock crowd support Bernie. So do many pickup truck drivers and many loggers. I know a few of them. People that think Vermont is full of nothing but white liberal elites doesn`t know a thing about the state or the wide appeal Bernie Sanders has....and has had for decades. I think Bernie won the last election with about 70%-71% of the votes.

Hillary Clinton very well may have a lock on the nomination. That stands to reason since she has the party`s corporate machine behind her. There are still some of us who believe that money shouldn`t determine who wins. And some of us aren`t into coronations.

There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm for Bernie Sanders. He simply speaks for the long-forgotten, fighting the same fights and using the same language he has used for decades. I`ve always voted on issues. That`s why I support Bernie. He speaks my language and doesn`t need focus group results to help him decide what to stand for.

Hillary has her supporters. Some believe she`s our party`s automatic nominee. Done deal. Stop listening to Sanders. It`s a waste of time. Me? I love watching what happens when raw courage and truth join forces before a crowd of a few thousand people. It`s energizing, heartwarming.....and a long-overdue breath of fresh air. Go Bernie!

[AgingAmerican]

43. Bernie has appeal across a wide spectrum

He speaks the truth and people like that. We have been fed so much bullshit since Reagan and people are tired of it. He is gaining a few percentage points per week. He is like snowball rolling downhill and many Hillary supporters fear his momentum.

[AgingAmerican]

38. We are 8 months out from the first primary

Bernie is gaining 2% - 3% per week. Don't jump the gun.

[Martin Eden]

72. Yep.

Numbers can change considerably in 8 months.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. It's sad that these threads end up being so divisive

It's sad that these threads end up being so divisive but it's pretty straight forward political analysis.

Different candidates appeal to different segments of the electorate. If you are trained in social science or political science these observations really aren't particularly controversial or remarkable.

[demigoddess]

52. agree totally!

I love Bernie, but would like to see a president who could work the system. Could he?? I don't know. Hillary also has the draw of being the first female president which is as attractive to women as having Obama being the first african american president was. Obama has turned out to be a rather good president, and Hillary might well do that also, despite all the criticism aimed at her. Certainly better than Jeb, Cruz, or any of the Republicans.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

61. Demography is destiny...

Of course being part of a group doesn't mean a person isn't an individual but if you know a person's race, income, level of education, region, religion, et cetera you can make a lot of reasonable inferences about them right down to their sexual and child rearing habits.

[Helen Borg]

42. The real reason: $$$$$

[ColesCountyDem]

44. "Hillary is inevitable" meme #472.

Baloney!

[Mass]

53. Beyond stupid. But I may be biased against the author, who is a total idiot.

I think HRC will most likely get the nomination, but this is largely because she is starting as the most well known candidate and while not my favorite, she is one who is acceptable to most at this point.

However, the idea Sanders is silent on these particular issues or that minorities are not sensitive to the message of inequality is beyond stupid.

And frankly, using Barone as a barometer of what Democrats think tells me a lot.

[mylye2222]

63. She has that lock because she has everything she could wish beside her.

The Party, the donors, the networks.

[frylock]

89. She doesn't have social media

[charin]

56. This is my fear

I'm a Bernie guy, but the OP states what I fear. Additionally, I think AA's feel loyal to the Clinton brand, Bill being called the "First Black President".

[Gothmog]

67. In Texas, Hillary Clinton has a great deal of support from Hispanic voters

I remember the Texas 2008 primary and caucus fights very well. Hillary Clinton had strong support in Texas from the Hispanic voters and that support is continuing today.

[Plucketeer]

68. IT's a Loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooonngggg

slog til November of 2016. Predicted absolutes are SUCH iffy things!

[Maedhros]

76. And the talking points march on...[n/t]

[Martin Eden]

79. The question we should be asking:

Who would best represent the interests of the 99% (including African Americans and Latinos)?

I think Bernie Sanders is the clear answer to that question.

Rather than locking in Hillary Clinton by taking for granted the support of voters who are not yet very familiar with Bernie Sanders, I think true liberals/progressives would want voters to be as fully informed as possible about their choices in this election so that the nominee of the Democratic Party is the candidate who best represents our interests.

[luvspeas]

84. I see your article and raise you one...

This story takes more into consideration than black people all thinking of one like mind.

http://www.theroot.com/articles/politics/2015/04/will_african_american_voters_show_up_for_hillary_clinton.html

Will Black Folks Deliver for Hillary Clinton?

She’s not her former president husband, Bill Clinton, and she’s certainly not her former 2008 Democratic primary archrival Barack Obama. While the question of the black vote in this round’s Democratic primary won’t torment her campaign the way it did in 2008—as far as we can tell at the moment—it’s how she performs in the general election that could be rather problematic.

Clinton’s biggest challenge could be the African-American vote. It stands to stump her at every turn if she’s not watching it with razor-sharp attention. She’ll need a solid 90 percent-plus share of the black vote to win. President Obama received 95 percent of it in 2008, 93 percent in 2012.

Her black-support numbers are solid, according to the most recent polls. But they haven’t yet reached that 90 percent threshold. Her “very favorable/somewhat favorable” YouGov ratings (pdf) among black voters are at a combined 77 percent, compared with Joe Biden’s at 73 percent. And there are Republicans like Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Chris Christie, who—wait for it—command more than 25 percent combined favorable ratings from black voters.

[arcane1]

102. "Asian-Americans and multi-racial voters outnumber blacks" in California too

Same for Massachusetts where John Kerry was a senator.

Seems like a stupid point

[JI7]

105. John kerry won the black vote in the primary

So it's been consistent.

[arcane1]

106. And he was nominated. Further proof that the OP is full of shit.

No surprise there.

[JI7]

110. actually it backs up the ops point about the black vote

Kerry won most black voters and won the primary. And he is saying that's how Hillary will win also.

[arcane1]

111. Kerry's from a state "where Asian-Americans and multi-racial voters outnumber blacks"

If that's not relevant to the OP's point, why was it included?

[JI7]

112. the black population is a bit larger than Asian in mass

About 25 percEnt of the state is non white.

[arcane1]

114. The OP includes multi-racial in their count, along with Asian.

For Massachusetts, those two combined outnumber the black population:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/demographics/map-compare-racial-demographics-by-state-with-u-s-figures-20130307


Granted that link is a few years old, so there may have been a dramatic shift since then. I'll grant that both by themselves are barely higher than the black population.

[JI7]

116. his point was how small the black population was

[arcane1]

117. Exactly n/t

[HFRN]

103. in your heart, you know she's right

she was kind of cute back in her Goldwater girl days, i'll give her that

[arely staircase]

108. good analysis

here in my red east texas county where AAs and Hispanics make up most of the primary vote, HRC will crush Sanders. She will win the Texas Primary big time.

[Jim Lane]

113. As a Clinton opponent, I worry more about the superdelegates.

A Clinton challenger has a decent chance of closing the gap with black voters, as with other grassroots voters, by making credible policy arguments.

With the superdelegates, however, the slog will be tougher. Various elected officials and little-known Democratic Party apparatchiks are automatically made voting delegates to the Convention, and they number about 20% of the total (therefore about 40% of the number needed for nomination). Clinton will be way ahead with that Party establishment crowd. (At the Convention, they're allowed to vote however they please, regardless of how the rank and file voted in the primary or caucus in their state.) Furthermore, they're likely to stick with Clinton, regardless of ideology, unless they become convinced that, as the nominee, she would not only lose but would also hurt numerous downticket races.

A case can be made for awarding superdelegate status to former Presidents and to current Governors and Congressmembers. All these people have at least won a public election with some actual voters who were paying at least some attention to the race. The real scam, though, is the Party leaders who also get superdelegate slots. Unfortunately, they're also the ones who would have to vote to change the system.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

115. As the saying goes, "A week is a long time in politics"

Nothing in the bag and sewn up.

[Gothmog]

119. Slate-Why Bernie Sanders Is the Left’s Ron Paul

Slate makes essentially the same argument as to the OP http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/07/bernie_sanders_is_the_left_s_ron_paul_why_the_vermont_senator_s_popularity.html

Which brings us back to Bernie. Sanders is a fascinating candidate with a vital, underrepresented message in American politics. But the same qualities that make him unique—relative independence from the Democratic Party, a foundational critique of American politics—make him unsuited for a major party nomination, much less the Democratic one. The more moderate and conservative parts of the Democratic coalition won’t support a left-wing candidate like Sanders, and the more strategic voters—party stalwarts like black Americans—will be skeptical that Sanders could win the White House, even if they agree with his ideas and policies.

To appeal to the party overall, and not just an ideological faction, Sanders would have to tailor himself to the priorities of the Democratic coalition beyond its most liberal members. But the cost of that change is to shed the things that make him unique. And Sanders knows it. It’s why he won’t engage in traditional fundraising—it’s hard to speak truth to power when you’re catering to millionaire fundraisers.

I like Sanders personally but I do not think that he will appeal to the base as a whole and I doubt that he is viable in a general election unless he engages in traditional fundraising.

[restorefreedom]

120. bernie has done plenty for minority rights and does it every freakin day

why is this so difficult?

every time bernie fights for a living wage, he fights for minority communities, as they are often disproportionately affected by low wages.

every time bernie fights for gender wage equality he fights for minority communities, as they are suffering from horrible gender wage inequality.

every time bernie fights for health care for all, he fights for minority communities, as they are getting the least quality and quantity health care, and have a lower life expectancy as a result.

every time bernie fights for education, he fights for minority communites, as many minority communities are saddled with broken schools and no money.

every time bernie fights for voting rights, he fights for minority communities, as they are often targeted by the gop for disenfranchisement.

every time bernie fights against crappy trade deals, he is fighting for minority communities, as they have the highest rates of unemployment and are in desperate need of good jobs.

i could go but damn i hope i don't have to.

[ibegurpard]

121. The fact that you and other third-way boosters are cheering her...

...does absolutely nothing to endear her to me.

[GeorgeGist]

122. I always discount "the REAL reason" threads ...

for being narrow minded.

[Scuba]

123. I love the smell of desperation in the morning.

[madokie]

125. More

claptrap

I'm an old, (67) Vietnam Vet and I've not heard him say a thing about people like me yet either. Does that bother me? Not in the least as all the things he talks about matter to me same as they do to blacks, whites, asians or hispanics. I know I left out some nationalities and I apologize for that but to get my point across it matters not.

Hillary won't win this, so there.
Bernie is our next POTUS, bank on it.