Hillary Clinton’s Poll Numbers Are Falling. Among Democrats.

[Purveyor]

On Tuesday, my Post colleagues Dan Balz and Peyton Craighill discussed the results of a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, which found that Hillary Clinton’s favorability ratings were lower than in any Post poll since 2008. The University of Wisconsin’s Charles Franklin put together this helpful graph, which shows that other polls are registering this same trend.



Here was my question: who is driving this decline? Is it Republicans, in which case Clinton is losing support among voters who mostly won’t vote for her anyway? Or is she losing support among independents, or even Democrats?

Craighill provided me some additional numbers. He broke down the trend among three groups: (1) Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, (2) “pure” independents who don’t lean toward any party, and (3) Republicans and independents who lean Republicans. This helps isolate those independents who are truly independent and not, as much research has found, closet partisans.

Clinton’s standing among Republicans hasn’t changed in the past two months. Only 14 percent had a favorable view of her in this poll (vs. 82 percent who had an unfavorable view). The split in March was nearly identical: 15 percent-82 percent.

But Clinton has lost support among independents. In March, 45 percent had a favorable view and 44 percent had an unfavorable view, for a net approval rating of +1 point. That has now fallen to -14 points (37 percent-51 percent). Craighill notes that the sample size of pure independents is small (86 in the March survey and 97 in the May survey). So take this trend with a grain of salt.

more...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/06/03/hillary-clintons-poll-numbers-are-falling-among-democrats/

[NYC_SKP]

1. I guess her Super PAC needs to step it up....

That slick website might even be hurting her.

[Purveyor]

2. Every time she gets in front of a camera her numbers drop... eom

[Scuba]

3. Unless recently returned, Charles Franklin is not associated with the University of Wisconsin...

... he's the guy behind the right-leaning "Marquette Poll" which is sponsored by the far, far right Bradley Foundation (more evil than the Kochs, and equally as effective while remaining below the radar).


Charles Franklin doesn't take polls to measure opinion. He polls to influence opinion.


I'm no fan of Hillary, but know better than to trust anything Charles Franklin writes.

[HooptieWagon]

4. Several factors, imo.

Among republicans, they just hate her. No big surprise, and that's not going to change much. Among Democrats, it's a bit more complex. And I'll break it down like this: Hillary is not very popular among Progressives. Initially they may have given her weak support lacking an alternative, but now that Sanders has entered, and there was excitement about Warren possibly entering, Progressives have their alternative to Hillary and have left her. Also, although Democrats don't believe any of the republican BS about Benghazi, Emails, etc, there is a cumulative effect of just getting tired of hearing about it. Call it Clinton Fatigue. And lastly, Clinton has been avoiding public speaking and ducking the media, concentrating on fundraising among high $ donors and carefully managed appearances. So there's not much messaging getting out, in contrast to Sanders and Warren heading up the news by public appearances and making definitive policy positions that Vlinton seems to be avoiding. IOW, we know exactly where Sanders stands on TPP...crickets from Clinton.

[NorthCarolina]

5. ^^^THIS^^^

Sanders, the right candidate at the right time. I am beginning to think this could be a truly historic election cycle.

[swilton]

7. +

Couldn't have said it better.

Clinton's negatives have always been a liability before Sanders. Before Sanders she was also never popular with independents.

It amazes me that this was known yet Clinton is still the anointed one.

[JoePhilly]

8. Add to that ... Hillary does not care about these numbers now.

She's not going to knee jerk over the national month to month fluctuation this far out.

She's setting up organizations in all of the early primary states because that's where the numbers will really matter.

[brooklynite]

9. Of course, Hillary isn't running against "unfavorable"...she's running against the Democratic field

and in polling against the Democratic alternative, she's getting:

Jan 2015: Clinton 60.9% (scaled average)
Feb 2015: Clinton 60.2%
Mar 2015: Clinton 60.2%
Apr 2015: Clinton 60.8%
May 2015: Clinton 61.1%
Jun 2015: Clinton 61.3%
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

At that rate, she'll be out of the race by.......oh, never mind

[Purveyor]

10. "At that rate, she'll be out of the race by......." I'll finish that for you. The sooner the

better!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. " Teacher, which is the greatest commandment in the Law?”

“Teacher, which is the greatest commandment in the Law?”

“‘Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind.’This is the first and greatest commandment. And the second is like it: Love your neighbor as yourself. All the Law and the Prophets hang on these two commandments."

I am sure you join me in hoping all our great candidates run the best races they can.

[Chan790]

12. I'm in favor of Hillary running...

all the way back to her fancy house in the NYC suburbs and country club lifestyle hobnobbing with wealthy RW elitists with her tail between her legs after being the dumped front-runner for Democratic nomination for the 2^nd time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. The good Lord consigned me to a life of penury.

That's why I am supporting the humble servant, Hillary Clinton, he put on earth so she can make my life and the others like me just a little bit easier. To some others the Good Lord gave trust funds.


We will never be able to divine his infinite wisdom until we get to Heaven and are made perfect.

[Chan790]

14. I don't think this surprises you...

but I am a trust-fund socialist and I believe in no life but this life.

That is, I'm an atheist. I was born as whole and made as perfect as I believe I'll ever be.

I also have a lot of money that I wish the government would take their fair share of...but only if they take their fair share of Charles Koch, Donald Trump, George Soros, Warren Buffett, Bill Clinton and the rest of Americans that are in the top tax bracket. Fair is fair. Taxes are patriotic and rich people that don't want to pay their fair share of the cost of governance are un-American. People in penury's fair share of the cost of governance should be zero or near-zero.

[hollowdweller]

15. I think she needs to come out on the issues a bit more.

Now it could be since she is like Romney, the presumptive nominee she doesn't want to put anything out there so the GOP can have any traction attacking her early, but there's bound to be some loss from the grassroots when you not only Sanders has taken specific stands but actually tried to introduce actual legislation.

[quadrature]

17. so what does she talk about?

because she cant talk about...

foreign policy, for obvious reasons
.
taxes... her husband cut capital-gain tax in half

her personal life... the Watergate committee

[brooklynite]

18. How about that whole voter rights thing?

Or that immigration thing?

Or that criminal justice thing?

Or that campaign finance thing?