Will HRC get the Bubba vote from the Red states that Obama lost?

[Always Randy]

In 1996 Bill got 379 EV--Obama 332--and Bubba won the states -that would not vote for Obama- Arkansas - Louisiana, West Virginia, Kentucky , and Tennessee, Missouri -

I am guessing that HRC will win all of the Obama states -PLUS the above--

[jberryhill]

1. Someone needs to check in with these folks

[Always Randy]

5. If these folks are voting for Hillary ---she'll win by a landslide

[blm]

2. Thanks to FOX/corpmedia a lot of that vote was already lost for Dems by 2000.

Add the fundies and the NRA and the ginned up terror alerts post 9-11, and it is definitely not anywhere near the same playing field.

[Agnosticsherbet]

3. No. Times are different. We are even more polarized. Clinton is woman, which will hurt her in the

male dominated Bubba states.

I think it is too early to count electoral votes and measure the White House for new drapes.

[Cosmocat]

8. Yeah

agree overall ... IDK, maybe she can pull arkansas, also as someone else noted, VA is certainly in play for a moderate democrat like her, and also, just sort of pure speculation, but maybe she can get NC.

Other than that, far to polarized now ...

Florida is going to be huge, obviously the Rs are sort of banking it assuming Jeb.

[BillZBubb]

4. Not gonna happen.

In politics, it's been forever since Bill won AR, AZ, LA, WV, etc. They've all slid further to the right in that time, as has MO. Hillary very well could carry VA and possibly NC.

[Always Randy]

6. Hillary is from Arkansas and still has a lot of friends there

[redstateblues]

7. I don't see her winning my state, Tennessee

[leftofcool]

27. Not likely Kentucky either.

However, Kentucky did go for Hillary over Obama in 08.

[hollowdweller]

9. No she won't. Rednecks are farther to the right now. She might get some of the rural union voters.

But your plain ole disability collecting, food stamp using, Medicaid recipient redneck is going to vote GOP for sure.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. VA, FL, and NC are in play

GA is a big reach but not as big a reach as the rest of the states of the Old Confederacy...

[mwooldri]

11. Nope.

TN imo is too red now. WV is also too red now. VA can go blue and I'm going to say I could count VA as a blue state thanks to demographic changes.

As for my adopted home state of North Carolina - NC can go blue but the Democratic Party leadership in NC will have to pull its finger out of whatever orifices they have them stuck into right now and get plugging a Democratic platform. State-wide, the Democratic Party nominee can win. We just got to beat the GOP get-out-the-vote machine. The Dems may have been forced a bum hand by gerrymandering and having fewer state and congressional seats .... but NC can return a blue nationwide vote. Oh, and if a strong NC governor candidate (Roy Cooper perhaps?) comes forward then McCrony can be removed. This Dem tide (as people are pretty pissed off with the governor - R/Duke Energy) could help a Democratic Presidential candidate win NC.

[NPolitics1979]

12. Hillary-D will win all of the Kerry 2004 states (NH-4,PA-20,and WI-10)246ev plus

NM-5,NV-6,and CO-9 due to the Hispanic vote- 266ev
and IA-6(272)

[EL34x4]

13. She wins every state Obama won in 2012

Minus Florida

303 (D), 235 (R)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I'm not as bearish on FL as you.

If the nominee is Rubio or Bush lll it will be difficult tho.


I am a bit more bullish on NC than you tho.

[EL34x4]

18. I'm bearish on Florida

Because if it's not Jeb or Rubio on the top of the ticket, it'll be Rubio for VP. Republicans will fight hard for Florida. They can't win without it.

For the record, I'm a horrible prognosticator. Eight years ago I was absolutely certain it would be Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. If Jeb or Rubio are on the ticket and they're fighting for FL in late October...

If Jeb or Rubio are on the ticket and they're fighting for FL in late October that suggests they are in big trouble elsewhere...

[EL34x4]

20. They're going to be in trouble all over the place.

I've been playing with the maps over at http://www.270towin.com and I just don't see Hillary ceding much of the ground that Obama won in '12. Even if she loses FL, OH, CO, NM and NC (where Obama won in '08 but lost in '12) she still wins with 271 EVs.

I know Nate Silver says differently but it is an uphill battle for the GOP to regain lost ground against Hillary Clinton. I do think they'll have an easier job if Hillary is defeated in the primaries and we get someone who is less known.

Then again, like I said, I'm horrible at this stuff.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I hope so...HRC is certainly the favorite but not a prohibitive one.

I really don't see her losing OH, CO, and NM...

I would call FL and NC pushes with NC having a slight Republican lean.

[EL34x4]

22. I don't see her losing these states either.

Barring a massive disaster of a campaign, I just don't see how Hillary Clinton can lose. Jeb Bush is not liked by the base. Ted Cruz is despised by everyone else. Rand Paul is fighting only to get libertarian ideas on the stage. Rubio is vying for the VP slot. The only GOP candidate I think might be remotely competitive is Scott Walker.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. We can't see into the future and we are both seeing the election through our own lens...

I always have to remind myself of that when making prognostications but assuming the nation is in the same condition in 016 as we are in now we seem to be in pretty good shape.

[leftofcool]

26. You think Jeb or Rubio could win FL?

You may be right but I am going to hold on to that till later. Well, know more when we see how popular both of the clowns really are there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. The presumption used to be carrying your home state was a given...

But as we have seen with Gore and Romney that is not always the case...


As a former Floridian I suspect it will be close with either Bush lll or Rubio...

[leftofcool]

31. No doubt you are correct.

[davidpdx]

14. We can always count on a few delusional people on DU

First, you can't compare the two maps exactly because the 2000 census changed the EV in a handful of states.

Second, if Hillary is the nominee she would win the "blue wall" states worth 247 EVs, leaving pretty much the same swing states as there were in the last two elections (Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire) worth 100 EVs. That leaves the R's with the same 191 that McCain got. No Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, or Missouri. Our party did miserable in those states in 2014 because Democrats campaign against President Obama's policies.

In order to win the Republicans would have to take 79 of the 100 EVs in the swing states.

There will be no huge landslide if Clinton is nominated.

[Persondem]

16. I am not sure that she will get the bubba vote in significant numbers, but

I do think many bubbas that came out of the woodwork to vote against Obama will stay home. Bubba women may just do their own thing in the voting booth and vote for Clinton as well. I was a county Dem chairman in 2004 and 2008. Bill Clinton came and spoke at the high school gym; HRC did very well in the primary in our rural NC county. In 2008 and then again in 2012 the rednecks voted in droves against Obama.
In 2016, with thousands of bubbas staying home (the racial hatred just won't be there) and a few more thousand bubbettes voting for HRC, NC goes BLUE.

[craigmatic]

17. I don't think the Clintons can win AR, TN, LA, or WV. We may have a shot in KY but that's it.

The era of the blue dog is over and alot of these states have only gotten redder since the 90's.

[EL34x4]

29. There's no more Reagan Democrats

They went Republican 30+ years ago and have stayed there ever since.

Now we're talking about white guys with tattoos on their arms and DD214s in their background. They're small in number and don't vote from their wallet. They vote against gay marriage and gun control while bitching that they don't have any money. Jim Webb will be trying to win their support. Cruz and Paul already have it.

[Corey_Baker08]

24. It's Always A Possibility, Who Thought Indiana Would Vote Obama In 2008?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I would like to see an Arkansas poll but I suspect that state has went so hard right...

I would like to see an Arkansas poll but I suspect that state has went so hard right even Bill couldn't carry it...

Best case scenario is we get a map that looks like 08 or 012...

[tularetom]

28. Doubtful, but I wouldn't put it past her to pull out the ol' race card and give it a try

However, if she does, it'll cost her black votes all over the country.

One thing you can depend on, whichever way she goes, it'll be the way her media gurus and focus group advisors tell her to. The women has no core values, beyond getting elected.