2016 US Senate Election- Democrats guide to a majority.

[NPolitics1979]

Democrats are favored to hold onto CA,CO,CT,HI,MD,NY,OR,VT,and WA and pick up IL,OH,and WI-48D
Republicans are favored to hold onto AL,AK,AZ,AR,GA,ID,IN,IA,KS,KY,LA,MO,NC,ND,OK,SC,SD,and UT-48R
Tossup Races
FL,NV,NH,and PA.
Democrats hold onto NV-assuming Sandoval-R doesn't run, and picks up NH-assuming Hassan-D runs-50D
Democrats guide to a majority is through
NV-Cortez Masto-D 46
IL-Duckworth-D 47
WI-Feingold-D 48
OH-Strickland-D 49
NH-Hassan-D 50

[FBaggins]

1. How many times will you post the same thread?

It just adds up to your own guesses/imaginings...

... and guesses that don't even line up with the experts. Nobody currently projects us to pick up IL/OH/WI right now (heck... Ohio is barely in play... I don't know of anyone that even thinks it's a tossup)

For comparison:

Sabato has 45 reasonably safe blue seats and four tossups.
Cook has only one tossup currently (NV), plus six seats that are at least competitive (five red, one blue).

[NPolitics1979]

5. Have you seen the recent Quinnapiac Poll in OH?

Democrats are likely to hold onto CA,CO,CT,HI,MD,NY,OR,VT,and WA and pick up IL and WI. 47D
Republicans are likely to hold onto AL,AK,AZ,AR,GA,ID,IN,IA,KS,KY,LA,MO,NC,ND,OK,PA,SC,SD,and UT= 49R
The Tossup Races are FL,NV,NH,and OH.
Democratic guide to majority will go through Cortez Masto(NV) and Strickland(OH)
Duckworth(IL) and Feingold(WI) will benefit from Hillary2016 coattails.

[FBaggins]

8. Yes. Have you seen anyone say that one poll makes a race?

So someone that we aren't even sure will be a candidate leads in a single poll 18 months out? Yes, that means that it's a potentially competitive race, but no, it doesn't justify calling it a tossup that you now think we'll win.

The original question remains unanswered... what possible benefit is there in you posting and reposting your own list of predictions 18 months out? Particularly when each thread varies so little from the last one?


Just as a reminder... here's a similar thread from about the same period before the last election. I'll leave it to the reader to determine how valuable the predictions were.

2014
Republican Takeover
SD(OPEN/Johnson-D)Rounds-R
WV(OPEN/Rockefeller-D)Capito-R
other Democratic held seats that have a 50-50 chance of flipping are AK(Begich-D vs Sullivan-R) and NC(Hagan-D vs Berry-R)
Democratic Retention.
AR(Pryor-D vs Darr-R)
CO(Udall-D vs Norton-R)
IA(Braley-D vs King-R)
LA(Landrieu-D vs Cassidy-R)
MI(Peters-D vs Miller-R) Levin-D retires.
MN(Franken-D vs Bachmann-R)
MT(Baucus-D vs Stapleton-R)
NH(Shaheen-D vs Sununu-R) Shaheen-D wins re-rematch.
NJ(Booker-D vs Kean-R)
53D 47R.

2016
Democratic Takeover.
AZ(OPEN/McCain-R)Napolitano-D
FL(Rubio-R)Wasserman Schultz-D
GA(OPEN/Isakson-R)Barrow-D
IL(Kirk-R)Hynes-D
IA(OPEN/Grassley-R)Culver-D
MO(Blunt-R)Nixon-D
NH(Ayotte-R)Kuster-D
NC(Burr-R)Cooper-D
OH(Portman-R)Cordray-D
OK(OPEN/Coburn-R)Henry-D
PA(Toomey-R)Kane-D
WI(Johnson-R)Barca-D
65D 35R


http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251286521

[brooklynite]

2. Sabato has tossups as PA, WI, IL and NV

OH, FL and NH are Lean R

[NPolitics1979]

6. Did you know that Sabato is a conservative political analyst?

Do you expect Mark Kirk(R-IL) to win re-election against a Democratic challenger-Tammy Duckworth-D that has an excellent background?- injured military veteran and Democratic Presidential nominee- Hillary Clinton is likely to win IL with at least 60 percent of the popular vote?
Ron Johnson(R-WI) is the most conservative US Senator to represent a blue state. Russ Feingold-D is popular with progressives and independents and is likely to benefit from Hillary 2016 coattails.
NV leans Republican if Sandoval-R runs. otherwise it is a lean Democratic.
PA is likely to remain in the Republican column.
OH(Strickland-D vs Portman-R) Tossup Democratic
FL(Murphy-D vs Atwater-R) Tossup Republican
NH(Hassan-D vs Ayotte-R) Tossup.

[brooklynite]

9. Unless you have evidence that Sabato's analysis is off the mark, his politics are irrelevant...

...and between he, Cook and Rothenberg, he presents the most optimistic projection of Democratic prospects.

FL is likely to depend on whom the Republicans pick; NH we need a candidate; IL is a likely pickup, but Duckworth is too recent to have shifted anyone's ratings.

[Smithryee]

3. After 2 years of bizarro world, I would think that the R's that are expected to hold on it to it

will LOSE them all.

Especially if the Iran framework is approved in June. It only makes GOP look like idiots.

And... it really DEPENDS who the Democratic flagbearer is...

[fredamae]

4. Oregon's Wyden Is NOT "Safe"

and the reason Why is: Supporting (or failing to commit to voting NO) TPP/Fast Track....
Oregonians are Pissed at him and for Good reason.
He might have been a "prog" when he first went to DC in 1996...but he's Corporate friendly Now...and Wyden literally hid from constituents who demand and deserve answers while he was raising funds in Oregon a couple weeks ago.

So, Oregon....is Not a "safe Dem" state, at least at this juncture.

[NPolitics1979]

7. Which Republican from OH is going to challenge Wyden?

Wyden(D-OR) is not Safe like Schatz(D-HI),Schumer(D-NY) and/or Leahy(D-VT) but he is in the same category as Blumenthal(D-CT) and Murray(D-WA). as well as the OPEN Democratic held seats in CA and MD.

[Chan790]

22. Blumenthal is likely as safe as Schatz, Schumer and Leahy...

a running tabulation of factors:

a.) the CTGOP is an utter shitshow of dysfunction. They literally have one candidate that could be a threat...GOP gubernatorial primary runner-up and former State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney...and they will not run him because he's too moderate for primary voters on social issues.

b.) the GOP bench is barren between:
1.) Getting consistently trounced in statewide elections.
2.) Continually nominating the same few candidates (Tom Foley, Linda McMahon) that are too extreme for CT moderates.
3.) 20 years of near-constant corruption investigations and indictments. (Santapietro, Rowland (x2), Giordano)

c.) Blumenthal enjoys broad bipartisan support and has +22% favorables (54% approve, 32% disapprove...per PPP 11/14). He's extremely aggressive in courting support from business leaders and bringing home the pork. He also has his 2 decades as AG to fall back on...his high-profile history as a public interest crusader endears him to liberals while his reputation of being tough on crime makes him popular with law-and-order conservatives. He's also perceived as incorruptible in a state that has been rocked by one corruption scandal after another for decades.

[brooklynite]

10. Do you have any hard evidence that Wyden is losing Democratic support?

News articles? Polling?

Or are you projecting your opinion on others?

Cook, Rothenberg and Sabato are all saying SAFE DEMOCRATIC

[fredamae]

11. They can say what they want

This is Wydens growing problem:
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/oregonians_mad_as_hell_about_trade_deals_that_threaten_food_supply_20150327

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/19/ron-wyden-fast-track-trade-deal_n_6714748.html

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/02/18/1365300/-OR-Sen-DFA-Goes-After-Ron-Wyden-D-On-The-TPP

[brooklynite]

12. "According to people I’ve talked to on the ground" doesn't give me numbers...

...I'm sure activists care; I don't see anything that says average voters are going to shift their candidate because of the TPP issue.

[fredamae]

13. Hard numbers are the ONLY

factor that tell us how the 2016 election will go? We're 19 months out. Imo-Numbers mean little ... now.
And, I disagree...at least in my area...."word on the street" mean more than Media leads us to believe.
One doesn't need polling to make a determination about electoral satisfaction with their base...Polls are only as reliable as the person who pays for them is honest.

If Wyden Supports Fast Track/TPP...all bets are OFF re: his "reelection safety".

[brooklynite]

15. So you're saying I shouldn't trust the poll your links cited?

Perhaps DFA is honest, but they're also politically biased.

[fredamae]

16. I'm saying what I said

Trust is up to you, the reader.

This is about Wyden and whether or not he's going to support the TPP Fast track...and how that decision will and already is influencing his opportunity to have Oregonians send him back to DC as they have reliably done since 1996.

[Corey_Baker08]

14. Do We Have A Candidate For US Senate For Indiana Yet?

I have heard speculation about Evan Bayh, but thats merely speculation and I really don't think he will run for a seat he vacated, but who knows the seat being vacated is by Coates a Republican who once held the seat, didn't seek reelection, and then a number of years later he ran for the seat 2012 and won and announced he would once again be vacating the seat.

Also I would put Ohio in battleground even though Portman has lost alot of Republican support since he changed his stance on gay marriage after his son came out as being gay. However Ted Strickland is our former Governor and has state wide name recognition and quite a bit of support, many speculate he only lost the Governor's seat in 2010 because Ohioans were burnt out on Democrats especially President Obama, but since the state went to Obama in 2012 his loss may be chalked up to lack of turnout in a non presidential election cycle.

[NPolitics1979]

17. Brad Ellsworth,Barron Hill or Bart Petersen.

[NPolitics1979]

18. 2016 US Senate Election- Tossup US Senate Races.

FL(Atwater-R vs Murphy-D)Lean Republican 49R
IL(Kirk-R vs Duckworth-D)Tossup Democratic- 46D
NV(Cortez Masto-D vs Roberson-R)Lean Democratic 47D
NH(Ayotte-R vs Hassan-D)Tossup Republican 50R
OH(Portman-R vs Strickland-D)Tossup Democratic 48D
PA(Toomey-R vs Sestak-D)Lean Republican 51R
WI(Johnson-R vs Feingold-D)Lean Democratic 49D

[Persondem]

19. I wouldn't give up on NC just yet.

We have a strong candidate for Gov. and with a strong presidential candidate the senate seat could flip blue. Burr is a do nothing frat boy.

[NPolitics1979]

20. Which Democrat is likely to challenge Burr(R-NC?

Will it require Hillary to carry NC for Burr to lose?

[Persondem]

23. The only person who has been mentioned as far as I know ...

... is Kay Hagan. She is being somewhat coy about it. Burr's approval ratings are in the 30's so that should encourage whoever decides to run against him. Hagan won in '08 so maybe presidential years work for her.

HRC would help. She did well in the rural areas of NC in the 2008 primary and the rednecks, who came out the woodwork to vote against Obama, just might stay home.

[NPolitics1979]

21. 2016 US Senate Election- Democrats will have a net gain of 1 to 5 seats.

Solid Democratic- CT,HI,MD,NY,OR,and VT-42D
Solid Republican- AL,AR,GA,ID,IA,KS,KY,LA,ND,OK,SC,SD,and UT-43R
Likely Democratic- CA and WA- 44D
Likely Republican- AK,AZ,IN,and MO-47R
Lean Democratic- CO- 45D
Lean Republican- NC and PA- 49R
Tossup -FL,IL,NV,NH,OH,and WI.
Democratic Victories will go through
FL-Murphy-D
IL-Duckworth-D
NV-Cortez Masto-D
NH-Hassan-D
OH-Strickland-D
WI-Feingold-D