2016 US Senate Election

[NPolitics1979]

The Democratic held US Senate seats up for grabs in 2016 that is likely to go Republican is NV and CO.
Democrats will hold onto WA,MD,CA,CT,OR,NY,VT,and HI.
Democrats will need to win at least 6 Republican held Senate Seats.
WI-Feingold
IL-Duckworth
NH-Hassan
PA-Sestak
FL-Murphy
IN-Bayh
Plus Hillary Clinton recieving 270 plus EV in the 2016 Presidential Election.

[FBaggins]

1. I wouldn't say that CO is likely to go red

After assuming a NV loss, it's the most competitive seat that we currently hold, but I think we still have a small edge. It's a tossup at worst.

[NPolitics1979]

5. NV-it comes down Sandoval.

The last two open US Senate Races in NV took place in 2000- Bryan-D retired (Ensign-R defeated Bernstien-D by a 15 percent margin. Bush-R won NV by 3-4 percent margin. and 2012-Ensign-R resigned.(Heller-R defeated Berkley-D by a 1-2 percent margin)Obama-D won NV by a 6-7 percent margin. Looking at NV at the Presidential Level- I expect HRC to win NV in 2016 by the same kind of margin as Obama-D. At the US Senate Level- the Democratic candidates in NV are going to be
1)Dina Titus
2)Stephen Horsford- likely to run for NV-1=assuming Titus decides to run for the US Senate.
3)Catherine Cortez Masto
4)Ross Miller
5)Rory Reid.
The question is how each of those Democratic candidate fare in the general election against the Non Sandoval or Non Angle-R nominee.
CO-It depends on who the Republican nominee and what type of campaign Bennet-D runs and whether or not HRC wins CO in November.
Whether or not Democrats hold onto NV and CO.
Democrats need to win 4-7 Republican held seats.
Likely
WI-Feingold
IL-Duckworth
PA-Sestak
NH-Hassan
FL-Murphy
OH-Strickland
IN-Bayh
We also need to keep an eye on AZ-assuming McCain-R decides to retire.

[MaxRobes]

2. Better hope the world economy does not stall

If the US is entering a recession in 2016 induced by slowing economies in Europe and the far East it may well be lights out; Repubs hold House, Senate and Oval Office. Those pushing higher interest rates at the Fed could do it too. War in the Middle East would almost guarantee an oil shock that would be bad for the economy. Hilly and Billy might be our secret sauce but I doubt it.

[Badass Liberal]

3. Disagree - NV and CO are slight D

With Reid retiring, and Bennet up for election in a presidential year, we have a better than average chance. I agree about WI, and whoever runs in IL. We must do better than Sestak in PA. He's weak and not terribly impressive on the stump. Murphy gives us an outside chance in FL, and I don't know why folks aren't talking about John Lynch in NH (Hassan is decent). I think Indiana may be tough, but if we run a conservative Democrat, there's always a chance.

[NPolitics1979]

6. NV is slight DEM without Sandoval-R as the GOP nominee.

CO is a Democratic hold based on the following reasons-1)2016 is a Presidential Election Year- HRC will win CO.2)Bennet has better campaign skills than Udall. 3)The Republican nominee is more gaffe prone than Gardner.
The only Democrat in PA besides Sestak to defeat Toomey is Rendell-D.
FL is going to be a race between Bondi-R vs Murphy-D
Regarding NH- Lynch-D had an opportunity to run in 2010 when it was an open seat.

[Badass Liberal]

10. There's a couple good Penn Dems-

Former Rep. Chris Carney, Rep. Matt Cartwright, State Auditor Eugene DePasquale, former Rep. Allyson Schwartz.

[DFW]

4. Toomey is a jerk

A strong presidential run on our side could provide coattails to take Toomey's seat back, even if it's Sestak running against him. We have to get the primary fratricide out of the way early, though. Let focus be on the clowinsh Republican ticket.

We will VERY much miss Jon Stewart skewering the Republican ticket several times a week. I hope he decides to do a few specials in the meantime to compensate. I'm sure he figured that after the debacles of 2008 and 2012, the Republicans would put up a responsible ticket in 2016.

I think that if so, it will be one of those rare occasions where he got it wrong.

[Corey_Baker08]

7. I Would Add That We Could Possibly Beat Sent Portman In Ohio W/Gov Ted Strickland As Our Candidate..

[NPolitics1979]

8. Any chance- Strickland's age would disqualify him.

Strickland will be 75 in January 2017, He is going to serve no more than one term.
Democrats have chance of winning AZ- McCain retiring or losing in the primary to a Teabagger. Democrats nominating Phil Gordon.

[Badass Liberal]

9. Good call on AZ and OH.

Definitely possible. It could be wave-ish!

[brooklynite]

12. I had breakfast with him last week...he doesn't look 75.

He's pretty energetic.

[BlueStater]

15. McCain is horribly unpopular in Arizona.

I think we'd actually have a BETTER chance of picking up the seat if he is the nominee as opposed to him retiring or losing in the primary.

[brooklynite]

11. Why do you assume a R pickup in Colorado? COOK POLITICAL has this a a "Lean D" seat

Turnout will be enhanced by the Presidential race.

[NPolitics1979]

13. Mark Udall and Mike Bennet narrowly defeated a weak GOP nominee.

Out of all the Democratic held US Senate seats up for grabs in 2016, NV and CO are the most vulnerable but there is a slightly a greater than 50 percent chance those seats remain Democratic.

[Dawson Leery]

14. kick