Democrats’ Odds of Retaining Senate Improve

[brooklynite]

NY Times-Five Thirty Eight:

When we last took an overview of Senate races in December, Republicans appeared to be slight favorites to take control from Democrats, with a net gain of four to five seats representing the most likely outcome.

Since then, however, Republican fortunes have diminished somewhat because of problems with the quality of some candidates and key retirements. Although Republicans are most likely to gain seats on balance because Democrats have considerably more incumbents up for re-election, the question of whether the Republicans will win enough to gain control now appears to be closer to a tossup. In fact, the outcome may depend on who wins the presidential election, as well as whether an independent Senate candidate who is favored in Maine will caucus with the Democrats.

The table below contains the FiveThirtyEight estimates of the probability of victory for each party in the 33 Senate seats to be contested this November. These forecasts, although they are informed by polling and other objective measures, are ultimately reflections of my best judgments and also account for “intangible” factors like candidate quality and the partisan orientation of the state. (We traditionally switch over to purely tangible factors in the summer, once polling becomes more robust and we post the official forecast model for the Senate.)

[shawn703]

1. With the nomination of teabaggers

In Indiana and Nebraska, Republicans are screwing themselves like they did last time around in Nevada and Delaware. Rove is probably cursing Palin right now.

[Amster Dan]

2. Karl Rove is sacrificing puppies to Satan at the moment

But you're absolutely right about the GOP: They're nuking their chances with nuttiness.

[Doctor_J]

5. Ah, fer chrissakes

will you please stop this mole talk? The Repukes have been gaining by moving toward fascism. Anyone who thinks this is good news is either brain damaged or working for the RW planting these posts.

[southernyankeebelle]

3. I pray teabagger wins will give us more dems in both houses.

[Doctor_J]

4. Is this supposed to be good news?

we have a less that 50% chance of holding off the most reactionary senate in American history.

A major problem for the party is our continued celebration of horrible news, like this, and getting Beck kicked off one radio station.

Revolting on two counts - first, that this is our fate, and second, that we are happy about it.