2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSo how does everyone feel about tomorrow?
I personally believe that the dems are going to win, and win big time. I may eat these words tomorrow, but for now I feel pretty damn good about tomorrow. I think this country has done a lot with GOTV this election, and we're going to see it in the polls tomorrow night. I am proud to be an American, and will exercise my right to vote tomorrow.
I continue to write "Note to self": There can't be that many uninformed, racist, ignorant, stupid people in this country, that vote republican.
randys1
(16,286 posts)ON Wednesday we can discuss how many uninformed, racist, ignorant, stupid people in this country, that vote republican.
House of Roberts
(5,179 posts).
INdemo
(6,994 posts)As they will be crossing votes.I think the long planned strategy is working and we will see an unprecedented win by the Repukes for a midterm One hell of an election theft about to happen
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)the GOP losing in KY, WI, FL, TX, GA, IA. That would absolutely make my day.
belzabubba333
(1,237 posts)SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)no matter what party they support.
Look at it this way. The last 2 presidential elections turned out that a lot more people voted than expected. Maybe people are waking up to reality and how important their voices are. There's a lot on the line here, and I think people are realizing it. We'll see tomorrow.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)belzabubba333
(1,237 posts)RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Downerism.
Cleita
(75,480 posts)I wish I were in charge of elections across the country. I would make sure everyone who is eligible to vote gets to vote without a bunch of obstacles thrown in their path or hoops to jump through. After that I would ask that every vote is counted, twice, once by Republicans and once by Democrats. Then I would be satisfied that the people have spoken not just a few powerful industries.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)So they are crap .and Early vote is through the roof...so I put our chances at pretty darn good actually. When we vote we win!
belzabubba333
(1,237 posts)IDemo (14,341 posts)
7. Each of those factors depends on the polling outfit
No doubt that polls conducted on behalf of campaigns and political parties tend to contain leading questions. But not all do, and Gallup has been contacting cell phone owners since 2008:
Does Gallup call cellphones?
Gallup includes cellphones in each national Gallup poll. Gallup has been including cellphone-only households in all national telephone Gallup polls since January 2008. Further, cellphone-only households are now as likely to fall into national Gallup polls samples as those living in traditional landline households.
Gallup and the survey research industry as a whole are exceedingly aware that increasing numbers of Americans use cellphones in addition to traditional landline phones and that nearly 40% of households have only cellphones. Gallup's methodologists and survey scientists have studied, researched, conducted test polling; analyzed existing data; and examined the implications of the inclusion or exclusion of cellphones and determined that it is necessary to include cellphone numbers in survey samples despite the increased costs of doing so to ensure that the obtained samples continue to be representative of all Americans. This is particularly important given recent studies that show that people in cellphone-only households tend to be younger, are more likely to be racial and ethnic minorities, and more likely to be transient.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110383/does-gallup-call-cell-phones.aspx
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Not to mention Do Not Call List...
fizzgig
(24,146 posts)i did one for quinnipiac early in the year.
as far as the dnc list goes, it doesn't apply to market research firms.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)fizzgig
(24,146 posts)but it is on my voter registration and that's how those lists are compiled.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Sugarcoated
(7,728 posts)I'm sure i'm not the only one.
fizzgig
(24,146 posts)the only reason i did was they left me a vm saying they'd call back.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)Which is the only way they could have gotten her cell phone number to call her.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)People who use cell phones sometimes have their cell phone numbers listed in the phone directory, if the person with the cell phone wants it published.
But, new voters, especially first-time younger voters, do not list their cell phone numbers in the phone directory.
Which is why the polls have been off by as much as 5% in the last decade.
fizzgig
(24,146 posts)cell or LL and those lists can be purchased.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Kind of a disengenuous....
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)To register to vote in Idaho, we don't need to have a phone number, just an address.
fizzgig
(24,146 posts)i said voters can tie their number to their registration.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)People that list their phone numbers on their voter registration forms are giving out their phone numbers voluntarily.
Whether it is a landline phone number or a cell phone number.
But, having a phone number is not a requirement to register to vote in Idaho.
So, we leave that space on the form blank.
fizzgig
(24,146 posts)i'm just wondering where i said you need to have a phone number to vote.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)Nice try to put words in my mouth, though.
Eugene Stoner
(66 posts)he has been awful accurate in the past.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
pstokely
(10,530 posts)nt
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)Blue Idaho
(5,052 posts)Last edited Mon Nov 3, 2014, 02:57 PM - Edit history (1)
Right now I am pissed that a party that has done everything in its power to grind Washington to a halt could be rewarded for their actions. I'm pissed that rather than talking about an agenda for a GOP controlled Senate they have once again employed the politics of personal destruction to attempt to seize power. I'm pissed that a GOP path to victory includes stopping as many citizens as possible from executing their constitutional right to vote. I am pissed that the M$M is a fully paid up partner of the 1% controlled TeaPublican party. Even good old MSNBC is busy hauling TeaPublicans in front of their cameras to spike the ball BEFORE the election is even held.
Meanwhile Cruz and his cabal of fascist hate mongers are busy planning an impeachment of a President who's only real crime is holding a veto pen. The rest of the GOP's Senatorial Good Old Boys Club is planning on passing as many anti-labor, anti-gay, anit-civil rights, anti-woman, anti-poor and pro-big bank and pro-big business House bills as possible. Yeah, I'm pissed.
They say that in a Democracy you get the government you deserve - well we sure as hell don't deserve this.
Let's do everything we can to stop this nightmare from happening! Vote, help others get to the polls, work the phones, and remember what's at stake.
santamargarita
(3,170 posts)This sub-human, rat Fuck, Republicans have rigged elections everywhere and we let them do it!
MFM008
(19,818 posts)They would not EXIST and should not exist as a party if not for cheating, gerrymandering, vote rigging and the push by the media to MAKE the square peg fit into the round hole.
demwing
(16,916 posts)redirect that energy to a GOTV campaign. Do ANYTHING you can.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)Kinda looks like Oligarchy, or Democracy?
Pretty easy decision to me.
Your vote counts!!!!
DavidDvorkin
(19,483 posts)Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)I wanted to be the first to say it this year!
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)xo Happy Thanksgiving.
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)It will do you good. It's all bought and paid for anyway. Wake up tomorrow, with a bright new attitude.
Beware: Tomorrow is one of the few days where the media can't lie(except Karl Rove). I'd stay away from him. The facts are the facts. I look forward to a big win.
vi5
(13,305 posts)I would just say "Well, nothing is getting done now with a Democratic Senate, and nothing will get done with a Republican senate because the president has the veto pen.". I'll vote straight Dem ballot like I always due, being the sucker I am. But that thought will get me through full depression if we lose.
Then I remember that this premise hinges on Obama using that veto pen rather than attempting to appear "bipartisan" by giving Republicans what they want.
I envision a situation where he signs some shitty Republican legislation rather than vetoing it, because he believes (or is told by his buddies in the beltway media) that if he just does that for them now, that they will then in good faith do something that HE wants in return. The same naivete that led him to believe that if he just pushes for and gets passed a Republican healthcare bill that the Republicans will HAVE to go along with it and like it.
So the TLDR of this is: Depressed with the realization that we are screwed no matter what.
ladjf
(17,320 posts)daleanime
(17,796 posts)I will be rolling up my sleeves Wednesday morning, there's a hell of a lot of work to do.
BP2
(554 posts)sorry, but it's true
Warpy
(111,327 posts)for another year and a half unless Republicans start their debating over a year away from the election like they did the last time.
I don't think it worked that well for them because familiarity bred the knowledge that those boys are out of touch or crazy or both, but Republicans learn kinda slow so you never know.
I just don't pay a bit of attention to polls or media. I just vote.
In the end, that's the best all of us can do.
truedelphi
(32,324 posts)or "Ami Bera" again, I will be happy person.
Neither is in my district, but I had to endure the mud throwing TV ads that went on for hours, it seemed. Where do people get the money to do this? We could have fed the population of Sierra Leone on that ad money alone!
truedelphi
(32,324 posts)Lake County Calif ballots.
Fingers, toes crossed. Lots of phone banking, but one day I'd get harsh remarks against it, and the next day enthused comments for it.
So I won't know till the votes get counted, in their entirety.
Warpy
(111,327 posts)I hadn't heard a thing about it but there it was. I do hope it passes.
truedelphi
(32,324 posts)As a teen, my parents discovered a brick of ganga that weighed just a bit under 16 ounces. My mom wanted to throw me out of the house.
My dad said he wanted me to figure out what the penalties were for holding such an item. And that although he would be glad to come to the local holding center and bail me out, I had better have a source of cash available, as his philosophy was "Don't do the crime, if you can't do the time." (Or in this case, the fine.)
This was what the penalties were, in Chicago land area, circa 1971 - anything under one pound, if intent to sell can not be proven:
A $ 200 fine.
We have gone so far backwards in our society, it is pathetic. Then we wonder why socio paths like Joe Arpaio have been able to acquire all that power.
ChiciB1
(15,435 posts)I've met some of the dumbest people with the dumbest views who prefer not to hear about facts. I feel useless about my ability to have many conversations with people who are informed about what's happening.
Maybe it's because I live in Florida, but trying to talk about real issues I get accused of being too obsessed with politics. Then of course, there's the fact that EVERYTHING is Obama's fault! I know he's much more to the right of me, but I'm distressed at the amount of racism I see! I was pretty young when Martin Luther King pushed Civil Rights and did see white & black drinking fountains, but I think it's worse now because Obama is President. I voted for him both times and foolishly thought we made progress, but we've gone backward IMO! I'm also NOT a fan of Hillary, I wish I had more choices, but so much money will keep the rich in power!
Losing the Senate may not give them many seats, but what it will do is give them some sort of "bragging rights" and there will be more crazy spiraling down!
I wish I felt better, I've worked to GOTV and am consumed by the thought that money might have bought Rick Scott another term! I know, all doom and gloom, but this country needs to WAKE UP and get a clue! So much venom and hate needs to stop, but if our very own Democrats are unwilling to stand up for "we the people" it's hard to know where I fit in.
I don't use the word HOPE anymore, but haven't given up on wishing. We shall see, but not sure the pit in my stomach will go away.
Filibuster Harry
(666 posts)I wish I could feel as optimistic as you. I do understand your "Note to self" and i do believe that too. But what has me so nervous is that the governor's race here in CT is so tight -- and It shouldn't be. Governor Malloy came in with a huge deficit caused by his republican predecessors (Jodi Rell and John Rowland). Instead of slashing like other governors which led to their states having layoffs, deficits, and even downgrading bond ratings Governon Malloy's approach was an increase of spending of 2% (as opposed to his predecessors of 8%) along with a tax increase. By doing it this way he avoided any layoffs to teachers, policemen, and firefighters. He has reduced the underfunded % of pensions big time in his 4 years. Our state now has over $ 500 million in the rainy day fund. Yeah things are not better enough here but we are on the right track. And although Rs believe he is going to raise taxes again , he is not. When he ran in 2010 an increase in taxes would be the last resort. It came down to that. I expected a tax increase because this state was in shambles. Investments in education, business, and our cities means a lot to our Governor.
I realize people do not like the gun law he passed -- but the bill was written by 2 democrats and 2 Rs. Tell me what rights did he take away with this law?? Registration? You have to register a car , so what is wrong with registering your gun? Ammunition? So the bill limits the # of rounds ? Where in the constitution does it mention how many rounds you are allowed? Background checks?
Reasonable gun owners approve of background checks. So the gun lobby is against Governor Malloy. They (the gun lobby) is making the Sandy Hook tragedy a political issue. Oh, by the way the gun law he passed (again written by 2 Democrats and 2 Rs)
including funding for mental health.
Now his opponent states he will keep spending constant for 2 years. Yet he is going to reduce the sales tax from 6.35% to 5.85%
(a 50 cent decrease per every $ 100.- of sales). He has not mentioned whether he will increase sales taxable items or not. He states he will reduce the state income tax but has not said by how much. He states he will reduce real estate and personal property taxes but has not said how or by how much. So he would keep spending the same but reduce revenue. He also has mentioned that the DMV is understaffed (so I presume from this that he would hire more gov't employees to fully staff them).
He would like any child in the state to choose any school (where at least 50% of the busing is paid by the state). So how does
he intend to do this? Will he put our state back in a deficit? Will our towns be hit so hard that our RE and PP tax bills will have to go up?
This is why I am nervous about tomorrow. I am sure many races around the country should not be as close as predicted.
(Shaheen vs Brown).
I can only hope that the turnout is good and that your "Note to self" is correct.
(By the way the petitioning candidate Joe Visconti dropped out last night and gave his support to the challenger Tom Foley.
So, if Malloy were to be re-elected then Foley cannot blame it on a 3rd choice even though his name will still be on the ballot).
DinahMoeHum
(21,804 posts). . .if, G@d forbid, the GOP wins big time.
Whatever happens, I am trying to contact a certain person in the northern part of my county who is involved with DFA (Democracy For America), and find out when they will meet, because no such group exists in the southern part of the county where I live; and i want to change that.
demwing
(16,916 posts)I think we'll do better than expected, but if we don't--if we lose the Senate--the two people most affected (Harry Reid and Barack Obama), will have a shit load of work dumped in their laps.
The media will be as stupid on Wednesday as they are today. Republicans will be the same assholes as they are now.
We'll come back to DU, bitch and moan and argue with each other for awhile, and then...somewhere down the road, we'll snap out of it.
2016 is just 24 months out. We lived through 8 years of Bush, we'll live through whatever else they can shit at us.
AlinPA
(15,071 posts)bigwillq
(72,790 posts)Hoping to get some errands done, and then find some time to relax.
Oh, and I will be voting.
How I feel? Not much I can control except my vote. Whatever happens, happens.
Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)Rick Scott, Scott Walker and Scott Brown.
Freddie
(9,273 posts)That Tom Wolf will be the next Gov of PA.
The rest of it? Hoping not as bad as pundits predict.
mvd
(65,179 posts)If we lose the Senate, I will feel Americans will never learn. Every time we make any progress, they vote Repukes right back in. We need to be more progressive as a party because you gain more than you lose, even in red states. Plus, it's just the correct thing to do.
rurallib
(62,434 posts)that is predicting gloom and doom
Damn glad I voted early.
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)It'll be a nail biter, or an excuse to drink something really strong (I took Wednesday morning off of work to be able to follow it all, or recover from the hangover), I know that if the GOP can get something to neck-and-neck in polling, then they have secret ways of putting things over the top in most jurisdictions.
As for there being "...that many uninformed, racist, ignorant, stupid people in this country, that vote republican," I have some vivid memories of 1968. With George Wallace having peeled off the most racist part of the electorate, along with the electoral votes of a handful of states, Nixon's "Law and Order" message carried the day after one of the greatest transformations to the country in terms of progressiveness in the mid-Sixties. Since that 1968 election, we have won the White House five times, and they have won it seven times. Knock off the last two of those twelve times, and that makes it 70% for them in the four decades involved.
tgards79
(1,415 posts)A long night...check it all out...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/11/final-election-2014-projections-for.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Ampersand Unicode
(503 posts)I'm ready to pack my bags and flee the country. Maybe to a more civilized place like one of the EU countries, ideally the ones that have the dignity clinics (Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands) so that I can make quick use of myself. 'Course, maybe I wouldn't feel so inclined towards hara-kiri if I wasn't living in a country that can literally drive a person insane.
The sad irony is that if I were to land in Germany and apply for refugee status, I'd honestly be able to say that I'm leaving a fascist right-wing dictatorship. If anyone knows what it's like living under one of those, I'd say the Germans would be one of the first to understand.
This is, after all, the fall of the Weimar Republic that we're going through right now.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)in line at our voting place.
I love voting against freedom hating Koch brothers puppets AKA republicans!
Nobody can blame us if the fascists have a good day!
VOTE..VOTE...VOTE!!!!
GOTV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I'll vote but I won't follow the results. Too discouraging.
In a wave election the trends are always the same: the side with the wind at its back benefits from the late surge and pulls out virtually all the close races. No reason to believe that won't hold up tomorrow.
Obama's approval rating simply isn't high enough. Nothing else matters. I haven't been posting here but I'm sure there have been thousands of threads and posts spotlighting local races and issues. Irrelevant. Guys like Chris Matthews have to fixate on specifics and late developments to fill an hour but they are mostly trivia. The big picture dictates the landscape and was in place long ago. Obama in 2012 was in the most favorable situational trend imaginable, as an incumbent whose party had been in power only one term. Now he's a drag as a lame duck incumbent with a lousy approval rating.
Besides, our party is increasingly a general election party, not a midterm party. Women are 54% of the vote in presidential years but it figures to be roughly 51% tomorrow. That's all the difference. Our key blocks like single women simply don't show up, and when the independents are tilting the other way there's no way to salvage anything. The only way for Democrats to succeed in midterms is for a sitting Republican president to have a terrible approval rating, like Bush in 2006, or a sitting Democrat to have a very high approval rating. Once Obama nose dived in that category I basically stopped paying attention to individual races, because the outlook was already bleak given the playing field.
I'm now back in Miami after living in Nevada for 25 years. It's primitive here in terms of voter outreach. I registered in spring 2013 but haven't seen one person at my door and virtually no contact other than frequent flyers from Joe Garcia. Charlie Crist has totally ignored me. That campaign allowed a moron like Rick Scott to define the race virtually unchallenged throughout the summer months, and Scott is smartly on all the peripheral cable channels while Crist is confined to the major ones. I can't believe I'm stuck with Rick Scott as governor. In Henderson, NV where I lived previously the Democratic door to door operation was incredibly impressive and improving all the time. I wasn't surprised when Harry Reid pulled out the senate race despite trailing in the polls. Here in Florida it's sickeningly the opposite. My sister is a registered Republican and she is complaining about being bombarded every day.
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)tavernier
(12,396 posts)Wish everyone out there who hasn't voted yet feels the same way.
THE POLLS ARE STILL OPEN ... GET OVER THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
p.s. ... NOW!!!!!!