2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumChris Matthews on Hardball talking about what happens if Blacks don't show up and the Dems lose
control of the Senate. Chris Matthews has been knocking the President for the past year and playing into the Rights' claims and criticisms against the President about the ACA website crapola, and that he's aloof, and stories about Reagan and Tip and how they were able to sit down for a drink in the evenings, as if this Congress is the Congress when Tip O'Neil was the Speaker of the House. If the Dems lose everything Nov 4, it will be their fault that they never learned to play HARDBALL like the GOP. The Dems never learned how to stick with one coherent message (even if you're wrong) the way the Rigthwingnut machine knows how to do. As the saying goes, if you repeat a lie enough times it becomes the truth. As someone mentioned here a few days ago, a couple of years ago, the GOP was on life support. But their constant running around screaming that the house was on fire while doing nothing concrete to shore up or reinforce the house, will return them to the leadership of both houses of Congress on Tuesday and the Dems will have no one to blame but themselves.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)If he starts talking up Chris Christie 2016 I'm done with him.And to think they are saying his viewing numbers are beating Rachel how the fuck does that happen.
trueblue2007
(17,237 posts)House of Roberts
(5,180 posts)but she kills him in the 25-54 demo.
I can't stand Tweety, and I don't have enough time to watch Ed, let alone Tweety.
otohara
(24,135 posts)Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)Not only is the Democratic party going to keep control of the Senate, they are going to take back control of the House of Representatives!!
The one BIG thing that the Democrats have going for them this year is the strengthening of the growth of the national economy.
Today the news came out that the economic growth rate reached 3.25% during the summer, far above the projected forecast.
This means that more people are making more money, lower unemployment rates, more income taxes will be collected, lower deficit, lower national debt, and more people content with the policies set forth by the President.
Another BIG thing is that the ACA, called "Obamacare" by the Republicans is reducing costs for health care insurance faster than first projected, saving millions, maybe even 100s of millions of dollars, for Americans.
cali
(114,904 posts)There is not only current evidence in the polls but historical evidence. The President's party historically does poorly in the midterms. The only exception to that over the past 70 years was Clinton.
What I have been reading tells me that the only thing that the Republicans can possibly hope for at this point in time is to hold onto approximately 75% of their seats in the House of Representatives, after the Tea Party coalition members from within the Republican party lose their attempts at re-election this cycle and are thrown out of office.
The Republican party also has to prepare to have a filibuster-proof Senate with at least 60 Senators voting along with the Democrats, 58 of which are Democrats, with both of the Independent Senators voting with them most of the time.
When you talk about historical evidence, you have to keep in mind that President Obama is the first black President of the United States.
So, President Obama is making history every single day that he is in the White House.
President Obama is reshaping American political history.
And that is what has gotten the Republicans so upset!
FBaggins
(26,756 posts)From your lips (etc.)
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)Obama is going to go as Jim Carrey's character from the movie "Mask" for Halloween this year.
"Smokin'! Somebody stop me!"
FBaggins
(26,756 posts)No... seriously. If you really think that.. you should make a bet.
The Iowa Elections Market barely registers a possibility of us winning both houses. The payoff could be greater than 100:1
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)Do you know how I know that?
Because I get alerts for that kind of thing.
So, you'd lose if you were to bet against facts.
FBaggins
(26,756 posts)You didn't intend it as supporting evidence for your claim that we pick up seats in the Senate and win back the House?
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)It is also supporting evidence that we will still control the Senate after Tuesday and will also control the House after Tuesday's elections.
FBaggins
(26,756 posts)You might, for instance, note that we controlled both houses of Congress and the White House in 1994 when the market hit all-time highs...
... how did that work out for our congressional incumbents?
Or those recent highs that protected the republican majorities in 2006?
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)Read this ---
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014935384
FBaggins
(26,756 posts)Nowhere in your link is there a reason to believe that a high stock market equals electoral success for the party of the President.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury Department said its borrowing from October through December will be the lowest for the period in seven years as the economy gains momentum, boosting tax receipts.
The Treasury plans to issue $232 billion in net marketable debt in the final three months of this year, about $45 billion more than projected three months ago and the lowest since 2007, it said today in Washington. Next quarter, the Treasury plans to borrow $209 billion, the department said.
U.S. budget deficits have been falling since 2009, and the 2014 deficit was 2.8 percent of gross domestic product, according to the Congressional Budget Office. That is down from 9.8 percent of GDP in 2009, when President Barack Obama took office.
The strengthening of economic conditions in recent years has occurred alongside a faster-than-expected reduction in the federal government budget deficit, Karen Dynan, the Treasurys chief economist, said in a statement. The U.S. economic recovery continues to move solidly forward.
Borrowing projections for the October-to-December period were revised up as the Treasury aimed to have more cash on hand at the end of the quarter, increasing its cash-balance estimate to $200 billion from $140 billion in August. The Treasury projects it will have $100 billion in cash on March 31.
The Treasury said it borrowed $205 billion in marketable debt in the three months ended in September, more than an August projection of $192 billion. The cash balance was $158 billion at the end of September, more than the previous estimate of $150 billion.
Smaller Deficits
Shrinking budget gaps have come as the economy has gained momentum. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annualized rate from July through September, the Commerce Department said Oct. 30, exceeding the median 3 percent forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey.
The economy has gained an average of 227,000 jobs per month this year, up from a 194,000 average last, showing progress toward sustaining faster growth. Unemployment fell to 5.9 percent at the end of September from 7.2 percent a year earlier.
The better pace of hiring could trigger a self-reinforcing cycle of stronger spending that boosts business confidence and creates more jobs, adding fuel to the expansion.
Todays Treasury borrowing estimates precede the departments quarterly refunding announcement on Nov. 5, when the sizes of monthly note and bond sales are released. At the past refunding, the Treasury maintained the size of its two-year and three-year note auctions. The department also kept the amount of longer-term bond issuance unchanged from the previous quarter.
Link --
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-borrowing-needs-at-lowest-since-2007-as-economy-strengthens/ar-BBcNudb?ocid=DELLDHP
FBaggins
(26,756 posts)... but what makes you think that makes the slightest bit of difference?
We've had years where we had surpluses (not just smaller deficits) and we still lost seats.
The question is what makes you think this year is any different?
Imajika
(4,072 posts)Seriously, the worst.
You are living in a fantasy land, albeit a pretty cool one, if you actually believe what you've typed out here.
The absolute best we can hope for is some sort of wash, where we lose a couple Senate and House seats but do not lose control of Senate altogether. Perhaps we knock out an unpopular Republican governor or two as icing on the cake. Real gravy from that point would be to minimize our losses on the local and state level. THAT alone would be a monumental victory and is the best case scenario.
There is virtually no chance whatsoever that the Republicans will actually lose net seats in the Senate or House.
Maybe you do not fully realize that the electorate in a mid term election is not the electorate that showed up in 2012. This time will be more white, more older people, less minorities, less youth vote, etc - all things that benefit the Republicans. The demographic breakdown of the 2014 turnout will be much more like 2010 than 2012.
You are right, there is good news about the economy. Gas prices are down, economic growth is up, consumer confidence is way up - but these things are probably coming too late and there are other economic factors that offset them. Basically, things were largely "baked in the cake" as they say by early - mid summer. The good news coming out now won't help enough in these 2014 midterms, though it certainly will help in 2016 assuming it continues.
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)brooklynite
(94,698 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)JHB
(37,161 posts)Last edited Sun Nov 2, 2014, 11:44 AM - Edit history (1)
Tweety is only a reliable weather-vane of how his emotional state surfs off the Beltway Cocktail Party Circuit zeitgeist du jour.
When was the last time he had useful information? Not "went on a rant that I happened to agree with", but actually provided useful information or insight?
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)kairos12
(12,869 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Strom Thurmond's racist ass!
Tweety will blame black folk just like everyone blames President Obama for everything. Really, we're used to being the scapegoat. Nobody ever asks why poor and middle class whites continuously votes against their own best interests, election after election.
Hekate
(90,773 posts)What will the pundits say then? Will it still be the fault of Latinos and African Americans?
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)Matthews never has anything new and kisses John McCain and Chris Christie ass more than a porn star.