Another WI Poll: Obama & Romney tied; Walker up by six-points--GOP more energized for recall

[WI_DEM]

Milwaukee, Wis. – A new Marquette Law School Poll shows that with three weeks to go until the recall election Governor Scott Walker has taken a six-percentage point lead over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, 50-44 percent, among likely voters. Just three percent say they are undecided. In the previous poll, taken April 26-29, Walker held a one-percentage point lead among likely voters, 48-47. Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch holds a 47 to 41-percentage point lead over Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin president Mahlon Mitchell in that recall election, with 10 percent undecided.

Looking ahead to the November election, President Barack Obama is tied with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 46 percent to 46 percent, among likely voters. In April Obama led Romney by 49 to 45 percent, also among likely voters.

Republicans are more likely to say they are “absolutely certain” to vote on June 5, at 91 percent, than are Democrats and independents, both at 83 percent. In other areas of participation, Republicans also have an advantage. Sixty-two percent of Republicans say that they have tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a candidate, compared to 54 percent among Democrats and 48 percent among independents. Democrats, however, are more likely to have been contacted by a campaign, 83 percent, to 78 percent for Republicans and 76 percent among independents. These rates are for all registered voters in the sample, not just likely voters.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2012/05/16/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-kleefisch-lead-in-recall/

The poll interviewed 704 registered Wisconsin voters by both landline and cell phone May 9-12, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points for the full sample. There are 600 “likely voters,” those who said they were certain to vote, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results for vote in the Governor, Lt. Governor and presidential races are reported for likely voters. All other results are for the full sample of 704 registered voters. The entire questionnaire, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at http://law.marquette.edu/poll.

[Scuba]

1. Well, if 91% of the R's vote and 83% of the D's we'll kick their asses.

That would be a huge turnout, no?

[WI_DEM]

2. It will be a huge turnout. And you forgot independents

who probably given that he has a six point lead are favoring Walker. In a closely fought election where turnout is the key to victory--the party with the most motivation and GOP has a 8-point advantage there--would be more likely to win.

In three weeks we have to get Dems more excited and make sure they vote and try to and gain back independents.

[Cal33]

9. Do you use electronic voting machines in WI?

[Larkspur]

3. Why aren't Dems more motivated to oust Walker than Rethugs are to keep him?

Was the primary more divisive than anticipated?

[brooklynite]

4. As with so many races, Primaries are the perview of Activists and the politically engaged...

...not the average low-information voter who is nominally Democratic but doesn't get engaged much in political issues.

[WI_DEM]

5. No, the primary wasn't devisive in the least--no negative ads from one dem to another

and they all came out right away afterwards for Barrett. But people tend to forget that Walker had no real primary opposition and got nearly as many votes cast for him in his primary as the democrats combined in their primary. Except for Dane County and Milwaukee, Wisconsin is not necessarily a BLUE BLUE STATE. We lost Feingold and the governors race last time. There's a good chance that we will lose the other Senate seat this year.

Recalls often backfire. Most fail. With Dems being out spent 20-1 and one pro-Walker ad on TV after another I'm surprised it's as close as it is.

This is why the national Dem party has to help. This is the most important election until November and the consequences of our losing it are enormous. It would give the GOP a huge shot in the arm. It would embolden Walker and GOP Governors everywhere, but the national party doesn't seem to get it, as usual.

[Robbins]

6. WI

The recall may prove to be complete failure.National democrats should have gotten Involved.

People need to figure out what Is going on in states like WI would happen on national level If Republicans win.

Dangers are a national right to work law In Congress.lowing minumam wage.ending all regulations.Allowing employers to fire gays.
anyone who depends on SOcial Security,SSI,Medicare,medicaid,and food stamps will be screwed.

[Thrill]

7. What the heck has happened to Wisconsin

wow. Ousting Feingold and Mittens running that good there? wow just wow.

[otohara]

8. Money Talks

and Barrett doesn't have any.

I gave a little