Texas Is Rapidly Turning Blue And Republicans Are About To Panic

[KamaAina]

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2014/10/07/texas-is-rapidly-turning-blue-and-republicans-are-about-to-panic/

Everything is bigger in Texas! Or so the saying goes. This is doubly true for elections. Texas is, indisputably, the corner stone of Republican presidential ambitions. Should Texas, with its 38 electoral votes, go blue, the chances of a Republican ever setting up shop in the Oval Office again are bleak....

THAT’S how important Texas is to Republicans. There is almost no path to victory without it. If Texas had voted blue in 2000 or 2004, George W. Bush would have lost. This is a weakness unique to Republicans. For instance, if California with its 55 electoral votes (by far the largest chunk of the electorate) had voted red in 2008 or 2012, Obama still would have won....

The only way Republicans can respond to this is with increasingly more extreme voter suppression laws but even that won’t work for very long. It also risks a massive backlash by liberal and independent voters.

The other problem for Republicans is that, as the minority residents start spreading out into the suburbs, the not-at-all-racist white conservative residents are going to flee. White Flight will decimate traditional Republican strongholds, further weakening the GOP’s grip on Texas.

Ya-HOOOOOOOO!

[polichick]

1. This will be fun to watch!

[Wounded Bear]

2. Can't happen fast enough, AFAIC...

Go Texas!

[toddwv]

4. It's good timing though...

The next census will be held during a presidential election year. This is great news for Democrats and really really bad news for Republicans as it will decide who gets to redraw the districts.

So there is no doubt about it that the GOP is going to go into full panic mode and we've seen what their desperation reaps.

[Gothmog]

3. Texas will turn blue eventually

I am working like crazy to speed up the process

[Uben]

5. Your effort is appreciated!

From one Texan to another.

My neck of the woods is still redder than hell, but I remember the days when we did get a majority vote for Ann Richards. It could happen. Lots are disgusted with the performance of congress, and even the conservatives are admitting the obstruction was a terrible stunt. These are country folk, they worry more about their savings holding out once they retire more than who is running the government. But I think they are beginning to see that the two are connected.

[Hortensis]

19. That last is encouraging.

[Kalidurga]

6. I think I will see it in my lifetime

I wish in 2016, but that doesn't seem too likely. Maybe in a decade.

[Aristus]

7. I can't wait.

In addition to much-improved electoral math for the Presidency, I'll just be glad, as a Texas native, to be proud of my erstwhile home state again.

Right now, every time I see something going on in Texas, other than anything to do with Wendy Davis, I just want to clutch my head...

[Rozlee]

8. We'll definitely go blue in presidential voting.

Unfortunately, our state legislatures and school boards will remain in conservative hands for a much longer time. People down here will get out and vote in presidential elections. They'll sit it out in off year terms and local politics. This will guarantee that the knuckle-draggers will keep us under their non-opposable thumbs for another generation or more.

[Centrist1984]

9. My opinions

IMO, I wonder whether the GOP will ever win another Presidential election as long as they adhere to their stringent social conservatism (super hard line on abortion and against same-sex marriage, etc...). I will be shocked if the GOP wins in 2016. I think that before it ever goes blue, Texas will first become a form of purple, then gradually become blue perhaps. I don't think it will just shift from red-to-blue like a traffic light.

As a center-right person however, I do not look forward to Texas becoming blue. Texas is one of the most economically prosperous states because of its being a center-right state. The most left-wing states such as California and New York are examples of what not to do economically. California is losing millions of people because of this, and the entire Northeast is losing a lot of population now as well because of the Northeastern states having too much in the way of taxes/regulations/spending. California in particular, a state that Democrats built up into the Golden State, but then when the far-left began to take it over in the late-1970s, have since turned it into a basket case economically, with excessively high taxes, regulations, and spending. It only hangs on as it is due to its large established industries that were built up in previous more economically-friendly times in the state, and also the nice weather.

[Doctor_J]

11. oops

You have mistaken this site for freeperville. California has a budget surplus and is cleaning up their environment. Texas is the most polluted state in the union.

Enjoy your brief stay.

[Centrist1984]

12. Budget woes

Last edited Wed Oct 8, 2014, 03:23 AM - Edit history (1)

California has a very small budget "surplus" that is highly questionable because of the accounting methods used (for example, the budget doesn't include the state's unfunded pension liabilities). And the surplus is primarily due to the stock market's gains as of late. And none of this changes the fact of the state's very high taxes, regulations, and spending, which hamstring its economy, and thus are causing it to hemorrhage population.

With regards to pollution, California ranks at the top in terms of having some of the most polluted cities in the nation. Texas has a few as well. I would think any state that is an industrial leader will have higher levels of pollution, and California and Texas are both industrial and economic leaders in terms of size of economy. Here is a link to a list by the American Lung Association: http://www.wjla.com/articles/2014/05/american-lung-association-ranks-washington-d-c-eighth-most-polluted-city-102889.html

Regarding Free Republic, I wish to discuss issues with people who disagree so as to see if my views are oversimplified, and thus to learn. No one learns much by just discussing with people who agree.

[littlemissmartypants]

14. And if we don't stand for something... we may fall for anything. eom

[thevoiceofreason]

15. You think Texas doesn't pull accounting tricks?

The current R's have hidden 10's of BILLIONS in costs off the books - remember, Texas was the home of Enron, the king of accounting voodoo. In fact, we have a fellow, Mike Collier, running for Comptroller who is scaring the bejesus out of the R's because he is an accountant (former CFO of a company) and he is proposing to bring in solid accounting practices. He will expose these cockroach hotels and shine the light on them. Oh yeah, his opponent wants to abolish property taxes and raise sales taxes into the 20%+ range.

Remember also - what the oilfield giveth, the oilfield taketh away. Whatever prosperity Texas has right now is solely because of the enormous expansion of drilling and production, spurred by fracing. If prices drop below $80 per barrel for WTI, you are going to see retrenchment and panic. I don't know if you were around in January 2009, right after the financial collapse. Oil went into the $30-40 per barrel range. Midland looked like a ghost town, or an auction yard, with rigs stacked everywhere. One big downturn and it all goes away. I wonder - - - will the Republicans shoulder the responsibility for that fall as quickly as they have claimed credit for the good times? A year or two of hard times will cause a major voter shift in Texas (like it does anywhere).

[Dustlawyer]

17. I would add that being King of low wage jobs

is nothing to be proud of.

[Centrist1984]

18. Sure they do, but...

I'm sure Texas has corruption just like everywhere, but Texas does not have the kind of budget and debt woes that California has. I think you are incorrect in claiming that Texas's economy is due primarily to oil. That used to be the case, but Texas has since developed a very high-tech economy with lots of industries aside from oil. They are currently the second-largest economy in the nation, behind California. I doubt that that is solely due to oil.

[thevoiceofreason]

21. I did not say corruption

I alluded to creative accounting. It is all quite legal, but it obfuscates the real state of things.

And I'll bet you all the money you or I or both of us will ever make in our lives: If the oil and gas industry stumbles, Texas stumbles. If it crashes, Texas crashes. Our "diversification" is better than the 80's, but we remain hugely dependent on oil. Much of our industrial base is co-dependent on the energy industry. Our high-tech does not effect but about 5-10% of the state.

Case in point: After things went to hell in the oil industry in late 2008/early 2009 (even though things recovered as energy prices rebounded), our 2009 and 2011 legislatures slashed everything (including over $5 Billion from education) because the state government was on life support (money-wise).

[Sunlei]

24. a border economy with extremely low wages ($100 a week) for the actual 'workers'

Texas runs 'maquiladoras' in free-trade zones along Mexico’s northern border. Mexico provides the corporations with low-wage workers and charge minimal tariffs.

[littlemissmartypants]

13. I concur. nt

[In_The_Wind]

16. Good grief

[ISUGRADIA]

22. Ha ah ha ha

"when the far-left began to take it over in the late-1970s"

Yeah, under those liberal Republican governors that were in office for 24 of the 28 years between 1983 and 2011.

#sarcasm

[blkmusclmachine]

10. Not to worry, GOP. Our current crop of DEMS always seem to find the clouds in the silver linings.

[Hortensis]

20. Suppression is NOT the only way. Desperation should lead inevitably to widespread vote tampering,

particularly machine voting, after all not exactly as easily exposed as a crooked mailer to an entire neighborhood. Especially with Big Money, corrupt election officials, long planning, and very sophisticated techniques involved.

Many states have not taken obvious steps to protect their voting results, in itself very suspect. As best I can tell, my own state, Georgia, still does not conduct post-election audits. At all. In the past at least, its contract with the voting contractor literally did not allow it to...

BTW, where are all those distressed white Texans expected to flee to? West Virginia? That image is worth a smile at least...

[Sunlei]

23. I hope people vote! Texas has oppressive rules to vote and did lots of redistricting

Republicans here hurt a lot of Ds over the years with their gerrymandering. I was a neighbor of ex Congressman Nick Lampsons' Mother, she was an amazing woman! She got her GED on her 80th birthday. Republicans changed his entire district to keep him out of Congress.

Lampson was a Democratic member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Texas's 9th congressional district from 1997 to 2005. After an extremely controversial mid-decade redistricting, he lost his congressional seat in 2004. In 2006, he was elected to Congress to represent the 22nd district, which had recently been a strongly Republican district, represented by Tom DeLay, the former Republican Majority Leader, who had resigned because of a scandal. Lampson was defeated in 2008 in his re-election bid by the Republican Pete Olson.[1] In 2012, Lampson was defeated by the Republican Randy Weber in his unsuccessful attempt to return to Congress in Ron Paul's old congressional district.[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Lampson

[ScreamingMeemie]

25. Kicking... and adding...

Remember folks, Texas was the first state with a major city turning out to vote an openly lesbian woman into the mayor's office (Houston's Annise Parker).