New Q-Poll has Mark Warner Up (Just) 9 Points over "Enron Ed" Gillespie

[lowkell]

Is it just my imagination, or has Quinnipiac been super-pessimistic on Dems's chances the past few weeks/months in race after race? In Virginia, for instance, the Real Clear Politics average, prior to this new Q-Poll, was Warner +18. So...what's up with Q-Poll (or is this race tightening in Virginia)?

http://bluevirginia.us/showComment.do?commentId=43393

[clydefrand]

1. Gillespie's commercials

keep calling Warner a 'liar' and votes with Obama. Of course G. wants to drop the worst insurance program ever (Obamacare). I feel like this state is really ready to go blue.

[liskddksil]

2. I think this is Quinnipiac's likely voter screen being to stringent

This casts doubt on all of their recent polls since when they switched from registered to likely voters, including Iowa, Florida and Colorado. The Roanoke College poll also conducted recently has Warner up 20. If our voters turn out to a higher degree than their likely voter screen is saying, we'll be in good shape.

[frazzled]

3. Races always tighten near the end

That's when people start to pay attention and undecideds start to decide. And 9 points up is a huge margin, especially in a 3-way race.

[FSogol]

4. Huh? Who is the 3 person in this race?

[frazzled]

5. The Libertarian

who, according to the OP's link, is registering 6% in this poll:


Virginia U.S. Sen. Mark Warner leads his Republican challenger, Ed Gillespie 48 - 39 percent among likely voters, with Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis at 6 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

[FSogol]

6. Sarvis isn't taken seriously by anyone. He's one of those local crackpots who runs for an office

each time. Usually when you lose at the local level, you try again. When Sarvis lost to Dick Saslaw for the State Senate, he started running for Statewide offices. He's just a common grifter.

But thanks for the info. Didn't even realize he was on the ballot.

[brooklynite]

7. Quinnipiac isn't optimistic or pessimistic...

...It conducts surveys and leaves that choice to you.

[Dawson Leery]

8. Q-Polls always underestimate the turnout for Democratic voters.

This is quite obvious as their polls are out of line with most others, yet again.

[FBaggins]

9. The race MAY be tightening somewhat

PPP just released a poll with a 12 point gap, so 9 isn't out of the realm of possibility...

... but this still isn't one of the top 10 races to worry about.