2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMessage from the DNC: GOT friggin' V!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I just visited with a good friend who happens to the treasurer of the DNC.
He said it's simple: Nate Silver is very good at what he does, but the data he uses can change. His predictions now are not necessarily those he will make in 6 months. If our numbers go up (Andy's "eg" from 37 to 41 and theirs go from 38 to 39, we keep the Senate, maybe even score an upset in the House, although the House is a long stretch. He also thinks that overkill TV ads don't turn people out as much as they turn people off. Ground work will make or break us, and that is what the DNC wants to concentrate on (Howard's not-always-followed legacy--and indeed, Andy worked closely with Howard when he was chairman).
So it's very simple: if Democrats stay home, it gets ugly the day after Election Day. If they vote, and in numbers big enough to nullify Republican electoral fraud, we all breathe a sigh of relief.
Our choice.
Vote early & vote often.
DFW
(54,405 posts)This is not a Republican board, after all.
I was quoting John Van Buren who used the phrase as tounge-in-cheek.
As was I.
elleng
(130,974 posts)notwithstanding his inclinations otherwise.
DFW
(54,405 posts)Occasional guest spots on MSNBC and Bill Maher do not win us elections. Howard does a LOT of low-key, unheralded work now, but oh, do I WISH he'd come back to chair the DNC just for this election.
JohnWraith
(2 posts)Nate Silver is by far the best indicator of the outcome of an election, his model is adjusted right up to election day.
That being said I think the polls would read differently after the announcement the aca has hit 7 mil enrollees. The upcoming elections not having taking place during the higher turnout of a presidential race are quite frightening(at least to me).
The thought of having a GOP senate and house should scare the pants off every American who isnt on their deathbed as its almost a guarantee of this country making no forward progress, with them working toward their goal of creating a crisis and blaming others
Imagine two scenarios
A. Gop controlled house willingly sabotaging our country because a democrat/ minority is in office and blame him for lack of progress
B dem house- dem senate and continuing the progress that was made in the recovery from the bush recession.
sorry if my grammar is bad but i am tired and i am long removed from school with little occasion for using grammar.
mountain grammy
(26,624 posts)district for Andrew Romanoff to unseat Mike Coffman, for Vic Meyers in the 4th, and, of course, Udall for Senator. I wish we had a strong Democrat running for governor, but Hickenlooper is better than a Republican.
We're going to take our country back in 2014!
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)When their issue ads rail on about the dangers of marijuana, the waste fraud and abuse in Medicare, the specter of voter fraud, the evils of immigrants taking your sub middle class jobs that labor unions are not protecting... That is the danger inherent in the flood of ads. We have to buy ads or we lose the narrative and the middle becomes Wisconsinized and ends up putting more rojo styled clever businessmen in office. While they trample over the voiceless left.
CANDO
(2,068 posts)The problem is inspiring and motivating the mushy middle to give a shit enough to get out and vote for Democrats.
lovemydog
(11,833 posts)I'm going to really make an effort these midterms to get out the mushies. I do every election, but going to do it even more this year. Post on facebook, tell everyone I know, offer rides to voting booth, etc. The mushies I know will vote democratic party, that's probably because those are the only kind of people I know. As for die hard republicans - I kind of avoid them like the plague.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Teabagger voting-related organizations. Some might say that they are "not voting organizations," but they clearly aim to get out the conservative vote, along with suppressing the vote of Democrats of all stripes.
As I listened to some of that anti-IRS testimony, my eyes opened very widely. For just one example, one conservative woman testified that these organizations were having nationwide conference calls every Sunday night to share ideas, motivate each other.
Clearly, these are not little local groups operating independently of each other and stumbling on each other to organize a weekly nationwide conference call. I don't know of anything remotely similar on the Democratic side. Or for that matter, on any side but these Teabaggers.
seabeckind
(1,957 posts)Primary next month. Haven't seen a D anywhere around -- no mailer, no email, no nothing.
NOT A FUCKING THING!!!!!
I went to the SoS site to see what the ballot looks like in the primary.
NOT A FUCKING D IN MY DISTRICT!!!!
For my US rep -- incumbent teanut opposed by a worse teanut.
For my state rep -- incumbent unopposed.
For my state senator -- the incumbent teanut opposed by a worse teanut.
I'm staying home.
brooklynite
(94,598 posts)Since you have a Tea Party Republican Congressman, maybe there aren't enough Democrats to warrant a Primary, and the Democrat is saving his/her resources until the General Election starts?
Guessing you're from Indiana, there's a Democratic Congressional Candidate in each district.
www.politics1.com/in.htm
seabeckind
(1,957 posts)I looked for an Indiana democratic presence in the internets...but alas...
I look for letters or articles in the local media...but alas.
Meanwhile the gop admin in the state is ripping wallpaper off the statehouse walls and selling it on ebay. If a democrat ever manages to win again he'll face an economy much like the one Obama did. Have to have volunteers picking coal along the railroad tracks to heat the legislative chambers.
Be nice if there were a voice.
IronLionZion
(45,454 posts)herding cats
(19,565 posts)"If Democrats stay home, it gets ugly the day after Election Day. If they vote, and in numbers big enough to nullify Republican electoral fraud, we all breathe a sigh of relief."
This is the crux of it. For some reason Dems fail to get to the polls in the numbers we need on non presidential years. We have the power to change this!