NPR Poll Finds Obamacare Woes Portend GOP ‘Midterm Wave’

[big_dog]

Last week, leading Democratic pollster Celinda Lake warned her fellow Democrats to ignore the pundits advising vulnerable incumbent Democrats to embrace the Affordable Care Act. She told them to campaign instead on the flaws in the law, the Democratic Party’s plan to address those flaws, and against the Republican Party’s advocacy for the pre-ACA health care delivery system.

But Lake’s advice had already been tested in a real-world electoral environment, albeit an unrepresentative one, in Florida’s special congressional election in early March. Former gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink ran the prototypical “fix it, don’t nix it” campaign and ran television ads along the lines Lake recommends in which she castigated her GOP opponent seeking to go back to a system in which insurance companies could deny coverage. She lost. Since Rep. David Jolly‘s (R-FL) come-from-behind victory in Florida’s 13th, a cottage industry of punditry has sprung up in which members of both political parties warn that the GOP may not be best served by campaigning against the ACA alone. However, a National Public Radio poll released Thursday indicates that the GOP’s anti-Obamacare strategy may be right on the money after all.

The NPR survey, conducted from March 19 – 23 of 840 likely voters with a sample 6 points more Democratic than Republican by the GOP firm Resurgent Republic and the Democratic firm Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner, revealed that a “Republican midterm wave” is brewing. “The overall political environment in 2014 resembles 2010 far more closely than 2012,” the survey’s release reads. “As of today the chances are better than even that they will take control of the Senate and add to their majority in the House in 2014.”

They cited a number of factors which are creating major headwinds for Democrats, including the president’s ailing approval rating, the sluggish economic recovery, and pessimism about the future of the country. And, as always, a wave election is made up of a combination of factors. However, there most certainly is one key factor motivating Republicans to vote in disproportionate numbers compared to their Democratic counterparts. What could that be?
http://www.mediaite.com/online/npr-poll-finds-obamacare-woes-portend-gop-midterm-wave/

[HERVEPA]

1. Pollster Celinda Lake should take a flying leap into her last name.

[big_dog]

2. we need to make wingnuts Ted Cruz, Bachmann etc the chief boogymen and women this cycle

Lake said Democratic candidates must weave their policies and day-to-day campaign messages into a larger frame "solely focused on middle class populist economics." "Democrats need to articulate a bigger economic agenda to really solidify this election," she said. "We talk about minimum wage, child care, and these are very popular policies. But we need a more muscular bigger economic agenda laid out there. "

Lake later said that "Democrats need to be on the side of small [main street] business. We need to be more aggressive and comfortable being on the side of small business."

The survey showed that most Americans have never heard of the Koch brothers, the billionaire businessmen behind a constellation of well-funded conservative groups gunning to put Congress in GOP control. Democrats, led by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, have sought to raise the Kochs' profile in recent weeks, hoping to tie Republicans to shadowy corporate interests.

"Trying to make the Koch brothers into red meat is going to be about as effective as what we tried to do for several cycles with George Soros," Goeas said. "Most people don’t know who they are

[rurallib]

7. uh - we are on the side of small business

but media on this and so many issues is so crappy that folks vote against their best interest thinking it is their best interest.

hard to top owning 95% of the media as a campaign tool. (and intimidating the likes of NPR)

[Dawson Leery]

3. Democrats have a small yet consistent lead on the generic ballot.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

With that said, follow the McAulliffe model. Make an issue of the Rethugs reactionary policies/ideals, tie them into why they are bad for the working person.

[fredamae]

4. That sounds More like

the GOP Strategy for a GOP Mole ....imo, of course.

[leftyohiolib]

5. npr is kind of a right-wing rag now

[sendero]

6. Exactly..

... I trust their polling about as much as I would Gallup's, i.e. not much.

Democrats are fools if they run away from the ACA. They should stand and fight for once.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. Dems should run on the benefits of the law and making it better (i.e. expanding it)

By talking about "fixing" the law right off the bat, it gives people the impression that the law is flawed and plays into the Republicans' argument for repeal. Dems should only talk about fixing the law if people ask them about it and when they do, they should take note of the concerns and remind people that all big laws need the occasional tweak to work right. That being said, Dems should quietly see about what can be done about getting the subsidies "drafting error" fixed that is currently the subject of some court challenges and could potentially lead to people in 36 states not being able to get subsidies.

[hollowdweller]

9. I think they should run on worker rights, min wage, populist stuff.

I think they should be hands off on the ACA untill the good things start sinking in more with the public. Maybe a year or so.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

11. I dunno

I think that they should run on it all. Bush didn't hesitate to flaunt his post-9/11 "resoluteness" against terrorism and Iraq in 2002 and 2004 and even though it all was severely misguided and went horribly wrong and it helped Republicans electorally in 2002 and 2004. Nothing wrong IMHO with Dems touting their REAL- and helpful- achievements like ACA and promising expansion/tweaking of it, as well as addressing other populist concerns like minimum wage increase, etc. in 2014 and 2016.

[Dawson Leery]

10. +1

[a kennedy]

15. got that right......

[RBInMaine]

12. IF Democrats get LOUD and AGGRESSIVE on a POPULAR POPULIST narrative AND brutally ATTACK the GOP,

then that will excite the base and progressive-leaning indies. Gotta GET ON OFFENSE and UNITE AROUND A POPULAR PROGRESSIVE narrative.

I say "popular" because minimum wage, worker rights, healthcare, etc. are POPULAR. Tag the GOP is OUT OF TOUCH TEABAG OBSTRUCTIONIST RADICALS. And yes, DEFEND OBAMACARE !! RUN ON IT !! And call the TeaBaggers the "Anti-Healthcare Party."

If they do these things, the base will be excited, Dem turnout will be strong, and we'll do fine in the midterms.

The Democrats HAVE GOT TO DEFINE THE ELECTION AND GET ON OFFENSE and put THEM on DEFENSE.

As Patton said, "No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor bastard die for HIS country." Absolute spot on true.

[AdHocSolver]

18. The problem is the Democratic Party leadership.

If the Democratic Party actually gained a majority based on a populist agenda, then the Party would have to actually implement populist policies.

This they (apparently) don't really want to do. Otherwise, they would fight for them.

Instead, the Party leadership makes excuses for not providing more robust support for populist causes and populist candidates, while at the same time, makes apologetic comments about their successes.

The Affordable Care Act is the first successful attempt at health care "reform" to benefit the American people since Medicare.

Implementing such a large, complex system is a daunting task. Considering its size and complexity, the fact that it works as well as it does makes it a big success.

[RBInMaine]

19. I agree the party needs to get LOUD and CLEAR and on OFFENSE.

[hrmjustin]

13. When are you going to stop posting these polls that say we are going to do bad?

Last edited Sun Apr 6, 2014, 11:03 AM - Edit history (1)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251358513

[Seniorcousin]

14. 6 months of campaigning

by the President can change the outcome of the midterm elections. I'm going to contribute more to Democrats this year than I did in the 2014 election.

[Pakid]

16. You have to wonder just how stupid so many of the American people are.

Just like 2010 the GOP will run on jobs,jobs,jobs, and just like in 2010 the American people will vote for them not once remembering that the GOP has not lifted a finger to make jobs. Instead of jobs we got the war on women and the poor and all the while doing everything in there power to help the 1% get richer at our expense. So why are so many so stupid?

[AdHocSolver]

17. It isn't as much "stupid" as it is social conditioning.

For Republicans, politics is a sport. Root for your own team and demonize the opposition.

Republicans put on a show of rock-n-roll "stars", while Democrats are sitting in a dental office anticipating a root canal.

Many Americans treat politics as if it were a high school sport. Most have never learned to analyze nuance, because their education has been based mostly about responding reflexively and immediately to authoritatively supplied clues. (After all, this is what Teaching to the Test is all about)

The Republicans can spend an almost unlimited supply of money on elections. Democrats, on the other hand, don't have supporters who can supply that kind of funding.

Yet the Democratic Party leadership runs their campaigns as if they can match the economic resources of the Republican Party.

They will squelch populist candidates who can arouse the base to vote, and, instead, support lackluster (boring) candidates whose only virtue is that they can fund their own campaigns.

Even when, occasionally, these often clueless Democrats can somehow defeat the glitsy, superfunded Republican, they don't really serve the interests of the Democratic base.

Many Democratic Party politicians who are supported by the party leadership frequently turn out to be Republican-light.

[octoberlib]

20. The Media Gets It Wrong: Obamacare Didn’t Cost Alex Sink the Florida Special Election

The media are parroting the Republican belief that Obamacare is the reason why Democrat Alex Sink lost a special House election in Florida last night, but actual polling of voters reveals that Sink’s position on the ACA was popular. She lost because the district is heavily Republican.

The problem for the media is that a poll of the district’s voters has found that they were wrong.

According to polling firm GarinHartYoung, Republican David Jolley’s hardline repeal Obamacare position hurt him with Independent voters:From the very start of this election, the biggest challenge facing Alex Sink in the FL-13 special election was the significant party registration advantage for the
Republicans among likely voters. The samples for our polls always projected an electorate that would be 11 points more Republican than Democratic – a difficult margin for any candidate to overcome.
Despite the sizeable edge for Republicans, Alex Sink was able to run a remarkably close race in the special election. Our polling, which showed the trial heat virtually even over the course of several weeks, indicated that the debate over the Affordable Care Act helped Sink more than it hurt her, particularly in creating a lead among Independent voters that almost negated the entirety of the Republicans’ superior numbers in the partisan turnout.

http://www.politicususa.com/2014/03/12/media-wrong-obamacare-cost-alex-sink-florida-special-election.html

[Always Randy]

21. You are spot on on this---

this post is a parroting of some others beliefs----even NPR gets it wrong------the only thing Dems have to do is GOTV

[quadrature]

22. looking for an ACA pricelist.

I am still looking for an ACA pricelist.
thanks in advance for any help.

this is the only article I have found.
It is not written from a Democratic
point of view, don't go there if you
are easily offended.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottgottlieb/2014/03/28/how-much-does-obamacare-rip-off-generation-x-we-ran-the-numbers-here-are-the-results/