2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumA New Report Shows How Young Liberals Own the Future of American Politics
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/new-report-shows-young-liberals-own-the-future.htmlOne of the most seismic changes in American politics over the last decade has been the emergence of a sharp generational split among the electorate. The Democratic Party owes its success in the last two presidential elections almost entirely to overwhelming support among the very young, which has overcome continued conservatism among older voters. The Pew Research Institute has dominated the field of exploring the ideological cleavages among different generations. And its latest survey shows again how the liberalism of the youngest voting cohort, millennials, remains firm, and likely to continue to recast the electorate.
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)"Joe, dear, I'm afraid I have some bad news. So please sit down..."
Any bets on THIS story making it onto "Morning Joe" on Monday?
deafskeptic
(463 posts)freshwest
(53,661 posts)Last edited Sat Mar 8, 2014, 11:39 PM - Edit history (1)
There are a few familiar, important caveats. First, Republicans are facing a midterm election theyre going to win not only because the young tend not to vote in midterms, but also because the presidents party tends to lose midterms in general, the House map structurally favors the GOP, and this years Senate elections are held on overwhelmingly friendly turf for the GOP.The result of which determines who will be voting in 2016, including youth, immigrants and people of color. The GOP has not stopped with the voter disenfranchisement, they are open about it, yet the article says youth will not turn out in the mid-terms.
If they valued the government that the writer hopes they do, they would value the electoral process. The people they have in their poll have shown by that one bit - that they are not concerned with what the Tea Party gave all of us since 2010.
Among those gifts are the anti-women laws, RTW laws, privatizing schools and other government functions that are being handed to corporate heirarchies, which are by their structure undemocratic, rob the budget for private profit, and degrade civil society. We can't forget the rampant growth of theologists in all functions, public and private, invading freedom of thought and the very bodies of women while people freak out over the media sensation of 'Big Brother Obama.'
Second, in any given election, a party can do well even if the broader structural factors are working against it. The 1970s were a terrible decade for Democrats, but Watergate helped them with the 1974 and 1976 elections. A recession or major scandal in 2016 would probably hand the election to Republicans.
Really? And they still will not vote in 2014? What the GOP has done since 2010 isn't a scandal to youth? The high student loan rates, schools being shuttered or sold off, their parks disappearing, the prices going up don't matter? What the GOP and the media did, the candidates that ran and were elected in 2012 like Ted Cruz, is not a scandal?
The amount of outrage on what Obama has or has not done, or is rumored to be going to do, even if debunked that people have focused, has been a media scandal. What happened to the occupation of Libya and the war on Syria that he was being excoriated about? What about going to war with Iran or Russia, that is not going to do, but what the GOP and right have done is under the radar?
But the overall picture is an electorate that is growing steadily more liberal on both social and economic policy, and whose views Republicans will eventually have to accommodate. I, for one, welcome our new liberal overlords.
In case the guy writing the piece and the surveyors didn't notice, most Libertarians claim to be far truer 'liberals' than any 'statist, big government loving, want to regulate us all Democrat.' Yes, they got pot legalized and Democrats like myself voted for it, as well as marriage equality.
Then people leave the stage and vote GOP, more often than not, despite that alleged 'Independent' label.
This country would do much better under liberal or even the hated moderate rule, but non-voters aren't going to make that happen. Sorry to be a downer, and Pew is thought of as an excellent source. But the poison pill is in the article itself, when the writer says they won't vote this year which disenfranchises them in 2016, or gives them a landscape they cannot win in.
It wouldn't be the first time in world history that a moderate or liberal population is ruled over and kept under the heel of authoritarian boots. As the old saw goes, 'If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.' Waiting for a media soaked public to find something to be excited about to vote, and not bothering to learn how their vote is important now, is what is called apathy. It is the best tool of regressive regimes such as the GOP is installing state by state.
Again, not putting down your posting an article that you may have thought was going to show the triumph of youth and liberalism, but the not voting stats ruined it for me. If they are allowed to vote in 2016 or are interested in voting at that time, they can make a difference.
No, I won't let go of this bone until then. It's one of my many faults.
:rant"\:
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)No excuses, no complaining. simple as that. just do it.
freshwest
(53,661 posts)Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)One usually sees it in cultural/prohibitionist issues. Marijuana legalization. Return to outlaw abortions. Gun prohibition. Outlawing hunting. Military interventions. These and other causes are underwritten by a comfortable faith that the enemy will die off. I've seen this peculuar passive phenomenon for decades, and it always assumes a static quality whereby the old never self-regenerates, and some natural evolvement will save the future for the young.
what a plan.
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)sandwiching your gun issue in between marijuana and abortion rights is so transparent and so Captain Obvious of you...you aren't fooling anyone...nice try, tho...
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)The main point of the OP was speculation on the changes to be wrought by shifting demographics, and my take on such speculation. If you study politics long enough, the MET of change rears its lovely head numerous times as a faith-based explanation of how social change will occur; I've seen it ,since the late 60s, attached to numerous issues, esp. so-called social or cultural ones. The MET enjoys a dubious history for prediction, and an even worse one for providing guidance (it can't do so because its an article of faith). I think it useful to remind folks of the phenomenon.
You might find it useful, too, if you get beyond your narrow obsessions with gun-control, and fellow DU members who disagree with you. For example, drug prohis were/are confident that reefer prohibition will be sustained because the counter culture generation will "die out." They have pushed that line since at least the 1990s. The same MET is used by homophobes who argue that gays must "recruit" (children, usually) to sustain their "lifestyle choices," less the gay "generation" die out like thwarted body-snatchers.
Now, ensign, back to duty below decks.
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)of loaded terms ("faith-based" and "lifestyle choices" an an attempt (pretty obvious) to marginalize people on the left who do not agree with you on guns. Doing so does not make your brief stronger, but I see why you are making your desperate bid for coherence. It makes your argument actually look weaker because it is so wildly insupportable.
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)You can turn the mundane into an adventure.