Nearly 200,000 votes already cast in Florida GOP primary. -- advantage Romney

[DCBob]

COLUMBIA, S.C. – The unstoppable force that is Newt Gingrich and the immovable object that is Mitt Romney are headed for a collision in Florida.

A primary that looked 10 days ago like a potential 2012 afterthought on Romney’s cruise to the nomination now stands as perhaps the pivotal moment of the campaign. Romney, bruised by his embarrassing defeat here in South Carolina, must quickly reinforce his already formidable strength in the year’s first mega-state primary. After his upset Palmetto State win, Gingrich may be hard-pressed to prove he can sustain his campaign’s electric energy on a much larger scale; if he succeeds, his back-from-the-dead candidacy could become a true juggernaut.

Romney starts out as a muscular favorite. He has led all recent polling in Florida. Between Romney’s campaign and the super PAC supporting him, nearly $7 million has already been spent on television ads aiding the former Massachusetts governor, according to a source. The other candidates have spent almost nothing.

What’s more, Florida voters have been able to vote by absentee ballot since well before Gingrich’s numbers spiked, likely giving an edge to Romney and his get-out-the-vote operation. Republican Party of Florida spokesman Brian Hughes said that 197,271 early and absentee ballots had been cast as of Saturday morning.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/71775.html

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Most of those votes were cast when Romney was leading in the polls. Newt has the momentum but will need to keep it going somehow to close the gap. If Romney is able to fend off Grinch then most likely he will resume his "inevitability run" to victory. However if Gingrich somehow wins Florida that might be enough momentum for him to take it all. This is coming down to classic do-or-die showdown with winner probably taking it all.

Be prepared for the ugliest meanest nastiest and most expensive primary campaign evah! The Florida Deathmatch!

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Added this for context from another article..


"More than half the 151,808 primary voters in 2008 cast their ballots early. That represented a 57 percent turnout."


So 200,000 would probably be quite a bit more than 50% as well depending on turnout.

[OffWithTheirHeads]

1. I need to go buy more popcorn.

This is one reality TV show I'm actually starting to enjoy. "Survivor, Clown Car"

[ZM90]

2. Oh please Newt take this one too! It would be such a joy to have the Grinch go up against President

Obama in the General Election, Newt's unfavorability ratings are so high that he'd give Obama close to a 50 state landslide.

[DCBob]

3. Even so. I dont want him to win. Gingrinch is an embarassment to this country.

He represents the worst aspects of politics. It will not be healthy for this country to go through that process with Newt spewing his nasty vitriol to the entire nation every day for months and months.

[joshcryer]

5. Yes it would, it would be extremely healthy. People forgot the Bush years too easily.

People on this very forum. Let them see what the other side is really like in all its glory. Let them be reminded, I say.

[DCBob]

6. Perhaps, but Gingrich will have Faux news and RW media backing him.

Many will begin to believe the crap he will be spewing. I just dont want to hear that crap non-stop for months and months. I think I will puke.

[joshcryer]

7. Ahh, I'm planning to stop following it after FL, I think.

I agree it's toxic, but if he does get momentum in FL I will definitely stop following politics for at least 6 months. Meanwhile I do think it'll be cathartic toward those whose expectations Obama was incapable of meeting over the past 3 years, resulting in an overwhelming landslide for Obama and the Democrats, including majorities in both the House and Senate. That's just how awesome a Newt run would be, imo.

[coalition_unwilling]

15. I am personal proof of the truth of what you write. Indeed, it was

Gingrich's initial stint as 'front-runner' in the polls a few months back that sobered me up and started to bring me back to Obama. The verdict from South Carolina only ratifies the wisdom of my original decision.

My wife and I have been having interesting table-top discussions over whom we consider most vile, Gingrich or Romney. Right now, I'd have to say Gingrich holds a commanding lead in that race.

[coalition_unwilling]

14. Gingrich is an embarassment to the human race in general - n/t

[joshcryer]

4. Do the absentee ballots outnumber the early voters.

Early voters started on Saturday, and Romney was not "leading the polls" then.

[DCBob]

8. Not sure the breakdown but yes you are correct to note that.

Early voting just started yesterday morning which means the Grinch may the advantage on those.

[bigdarryl]

9. How the FUCK do they know that most of those early voters voted for Romney

Votes aren't supposed to be counted or looked at until election day

[morningfog]

12. Mitt was the only candidate with an absentee vote campaign.

It stands to reason that since it was his campaign promoting and organizing the absentee voting, most of the absentee voters were supporters.

However, as mentioned elsewhere in this thread, early voting (not absentee) would not necessarily favor Romney.

[MjolnirTime]

10. Newt will still pull it out in a squeaker. Momentum is just that powerful. Mark my words.

[morningfog]

13. I am awaiting the next round of polls from FL.

The last polling was from around the 16th, a lot has moved since then.

The margin Newt would have to overcome from those polls is about the same that he overcame in SC.

[DavidDvorkin]

11. I wonder if the absentee voters are more likely to be the wealthiest Republicans

Those with homes in Florida and elsewhere, or business interests in various places. Those who spend a lot of their time roaming around in vacation spots elsewhere in the world.

That's the group that supports Romney most strongly.