2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe last thing I would do is count Chris Christie out for 2016 - it would be foolish to do so
One thing I've learned from 3 decades of following politics is this - voters have the attention span of gnats with ADHD. Anyone jumping for joy that this scandal regarding the GWB lane closures is a fool to count Christie out for 2016.
If this was 2015 I would say yes put a fork in him he's done. But The guy has 2 years to rehab his reputation and Christie could do alot to make him look like a superstar in that time frame.
Consider this - after 9/11, Rudy Giuliani looked like a shoo-in for any future political aspirations. If the presidential election was held in 2002 and Guiliani was one of the candidates I wouldn't be shocked to see the guy win. But he didn't run for President until 2008 and by then he ran an embarassing campaign skipping Iowa and New Hamshire to focus on Florida where he still came way behind the winner of the state.
Mind you that presidental run was 6 years after 9/11, so Giuliani had more time to tank his reputation. But Christie can do alot in 2 years to help repair his reputation and put him back on the presidential fast track that many claimed he was already heading.
So for those of you gleeful of the demise of the Christie 2016 campaign - don't break out the Champagne too quickly. 2016 is still a ways away and alot could change between now and then.
Walk away
(9,494 posts)show this to be the tip of the iceberg. It will take at least a year if not two to wrap the entire thing up. If they can get anyone to talk he will be royally screwed for a long time.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)But it is feasible that things might not turn out how we expect or Christie will put out a 'I'm very remorseful about what happened' tour in NJ that turns around his reputation.
And you have to expect that the Right-wing outlets like Faux News and whatnot will spend the next two years painting this as a 'Witchhunt by the Left' which will garner support for Christie. Faux knows if they repeat the story enough times then other networks might pick up on it and start asking the same questions.
It should be interesting.
goldent
(1,582 posts)it could work in Christie's favor -- "hey they went over me with a fine toothed comb and came up with nothing!"
So I agree, we will have to wait to see.
hauckeye
(635 posts)I can't imagine that we'll still be talking about lane closures in 2016. Numerous other scandals will have come and gone by then.
The_Commonist
(2,518 posts)Yeah... it will carry the news cycle for another week, maybe. It will be back on occasion and carry a couple more news cycles. Then... POOF!!!
Doesn't mean Christie has a chance of getting the Republican nomination, he probably doesn't. But this won't make much difference in the long run.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)Bush was still re-elected although to this day I still question the returns from Ohio
The_Commonist
(2,518 posts)Never count a Republican out until the flowers are placed on the casket and it's being lowered into the ground. Democrats, on the other hand, are done at the first whiff of impropriety.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Rowdyboy
(22,057 posts)high-fiving over his destruction are just fooling themselves.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)why let people forget who this guy is and what he will resort too??
busterbrown
(8,515 posts)Remind everybody of wat the gop stands for..
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)Because clearly Christie's DA cannot investigate this. And special prosecutors can be very deliberative. There could be both state and federal Grand Juries. Grand juries are not known for speed. This could drag out a loooooong time. And the longer it goes the more leaks there will be, each generating a new round of news stories. There could be tell all books from people fired by Christie as a result of this scandal as well as other stuff prior to this. This is going to get very nasty. And if Christie is to run in 2016 he has to start collecting money soon. This will complicate all of that. Some donors are not going to commit to someone who may be damaged goods.
yellowcanine
(35,701 posts)And it will not take much to rip the bandages off and open it up again.
If it were just one aide, he might be ok. But there are at least three who potentially face legal problems. And they all are going to be trying to cut deals. If they all start singing the same tune and his chief of staff gets implicated in any way I think it could lead directly to Christie.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)Even with that scandal Bush was still re-elected.
We can only hope that this scandal will stick but we are foolish to say the guy is out.