"The Last Days of the GOP"

[M.G.]

"I once wrote about lobbying, and this week I called some Republicans I used to talk to (and some that they recommended I talk to) about the effect the shutdown is having on the Republican Party in Washington. The response I got was fear of Republican decline and loathing of the Tea Party: One lobbyist and former Hill staffer lamented the “fall of the national party,” another the rise of “suburban revolutionaries,” and another of “people alienated from business, from everything.” There is a growing fear among Washington Republicans that the party, which has lost two national elections in a row, is headed for history’s dustbin. And I believe that they are right to worry.

The battle over the shutdown has highlighted the cracks and fissures within the party. The party’s leadership has begun to lose control of its members in Congress. The party’s base has become increasingly shrill and is almost as dissatisfied with the Republican leadership in Washington as it is with President Obama. New conservative groups have echoed, and taken advantage of, this sentiment by targeting Republicans identified with the leadership for defeat. And a growing group of Republican politicians, who owe their election to these groups, has carried the battle into the halls of Congress. That is spelling doom for the Republican coalition that has kept the party afloat for the last two decades."


http://www.newrepublic.com/article/115134/gop-death-watch-final-days-republican-party

[LongTomH]

1. Oh God! I hope they're right; but, I've seen the Republican party rise from the dead too many times

Goldwater's defeat in 1964 -- Nixon elected in 1968

The Watergate scandal and Nixon's resignation in 1974 --- Reagan elected in 1980.

The GOP repudiated after the 1995 shutdown -- Bush 'selected' in 2000

A total repudiation of Congressional Republicans in 2006 -- The House captured in 2010

Are you seeing a pattern here?

I'm not being defeatist; I'm just saying: Be prepared for a hell of a battle in the next two election cycles: 2014 & 2016

[M.G.]

2. I don't think their death knell is imminent, but...

I don't think we're going to see the GOP's death-knell in '14 or '16, but I do think movement conservatism is going to be weakened and radically altered over the next decade or two. Intraparty tensions are making it too difficult for the GOP to adapt to changing demographics for today's conservatism to survive in the long term. Perhaps the 2030's will see the birth of a more restrained and prudent right.

[Myrina]

3. I think it's going to split.

I'm not so sure the Koch's haven't learned some tiny little lesson in fomenting the religious and phobically insane that ended up helping the GOP hold the House but ultimately also shutting down the gov't, costing the Koch empire and pals lots of money and pulling back the curtain on who/what they really are about.

So I think the 'old GOP' (a little more sane, mostly business-oriented) is going to pop back up, and the Tea Nutters are going to flank further to the right and run solely on social/religious/phobic issues. And they may get or maintain a few seats here & there in Nutbagistan States/districts. The problem with the Crazy Uncle is, once you let him out of the attic & he runs barefoot on the lawn, it's hard to get him back inside.

[M.G.]

25. Certainly a plausible scenario.

[denverbill]

4. Frankly I think you shouldn't be optimistic.

Look at the freepers. They hated McCain. They voted 100% for McCain. They hated Romney. They voted 100% for Romney.

Freepers are the lunatic fringe. The crazy uncles at Thanksgiving. If anyone is going third party because Republickers aren't crazy enough, it's those wackos. But they fall into line and vote the same way year after year.

[M.G.]

6. The GOP's long term problem...

The GOP's real long term problem is demographics; basically their base is dying and the younger voters are more liberal and more ethnically diverse.

In the end, I think you're probably right that the tea parties will swallow their bile and vote for whoever the GOP nominates, BUT their extremism makes it much tougher for the republicans to adapt their message to a rapidly changing America.

Heck, the tea partiers I've talked with don't even know how to address people who disagree with them or engage arguments against their ideas, at least beyond staring blankly and saying "but that's socialism!"

[Doctor_J]

7. Nonsense

The GOP's real long term problem is demographics;

Look at Texas. Heavily Hispanic, most reactionary in the union.

[M.G.]

9. Give it 20-25 years

Virginia voted red in Presidential races for a long time, too. Rising immigration probably turned it purple.

A bit old, but worth reading:

http://www.businessinsider.com/romney-electoral-college-map-swing-states-2012-10

[Doctor_J]

10. if we don't take the country back from the teabaggers for 25 years, there won't be anything

left to rescue. Unless your post was made in jest.

[M.G.]

12. 20-25 years was referring to Texas

I think it'll take 20-25 years for Texas to go Blue.

Fortunately, we don't need Texas to go Blue to shift national politics. I already mentioned Virginia; in 10-15 years Florida will probably be solid blue with North Carolina following.

[Cosmocat]

29. You are absolutely correct

2010 was a big wake up for me.

There was NO reason, literally and figuratively, for this country to give these lunatics power in 2010.

But, they got one of the biggest congressional win in modern history for nothing other than throwing a big hissy fit over not being in power.

That was it.

They will find SOMETHING to rally around, it just is what they do. AND, the media WILL ALWAYS work against democrats and for republicans.

[M.G.]

30. I think the question is...

I think the question is whether the demographics will eventually prohibit the GOP, at least as it currently exists, from winning another sweeping 2010 type victory.

[Cosmocat]

31. I was pretty certain after 06 and 08

that the democraphics were going to increasingly work against them.

But, again, 2010 was a big wakeup for me.

I think the problem is, the demographics from a numeric standpoint will continue to constrict on them. But, the "demographics" ie. younger voters, minorities, ect, are unreliable.

Their voters get out pretty much every election. They are voting AGAINST something all the time - whatever they are ginned up to be against. Democrats generally don't operate from that level. 06 and 08 was against Bush. But, outside of that I don't have an election in my life where democrats got out a big vote against something.

In my adult life, the Rs have ginned up elections over gods, guns and gays in the 90s, against Gore in 2000, in 02 over 9-11 and saying only dipshit and company can "keep us safe" cause liberals hate America and they are weak, 04 barely getting over the finish line with the remnants of the 9-11 factor, then 2010 creating hysteria over pretty much nothing.

I think their thing is to just scream about any and everything until something bites.

It may happen over time, but because the demographics won't translate directly to big numbers of non "conservative" voters, I think we are always going to vulnerable to this country falling for whatever line of shit they are putting out.

Not to mention gerrymandering ...

[M.G.]

32. I think one could plausibly argue...

I think one could plausibly argue in '08 the voters came out for Obama. I think one could also plausibly argue that in '12 they came out for his policies - at that point, no one could fairly say it was a matter of his persona.

Big thing with the demographics isn't just that the Democrats' base is growing. The GOP base is shrinking, at least compared to everyone else. Just getting their base out isn't going to be enough by 2020-30 or so unless the composition of their base changes in some way; and with the intolerant TP taking over, it's tough to see that happening.

[Coyotl]

5. It's Dear John time:

#GOPshutdown


from: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023829037

[apnu]

8. That's a good read. (nt)

[BluegrassStateBlues]

11. Shared on FB with "Cross your fingers."

Take that, teabagger family members.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

13. Hopefully!

[ancianita]

14. Sadly, as long as there is Big Money and stupid people in politics, the GOP will survive.

Capitalists will always foment political drama to distract democratic participants from their destructive externalities. Getting money out of politics will be the true cause of the Republican Party's demise. 'Values' voting alone will never again win them a governing majority.

[M.G.]

15. They'll survive, but....

There's always going to be a right , and the GOP will exist in some form for a long time, but the kind of right we have can change (and certainly has changed in the past.). With luck, demographics and infighting will make the mainstream representatives of tomorrow's conservatives more moderate than today's.

[ancianita]

16. Probably, and Big Money will always be around to drum up protection racket fears that lead to

misspending on wars, subsidies, squabbles over social contract spending and rigging elections, along with the foregrounding media and political puppets to dramatize these fears in the name of 'looking out for the public.'

[SmittynMo]

17. Tea partiers

My thoughts:

I believe the far right Tea Party is out to destroy and take over what was once the GOP. For what reason, I do not know. They will fail miserably, as they are now.

[M.G.]

18. I think I know the reason...

Having been active in the Republican Party many years back and having had conversations with many of what would today be called Tea Party supporters, I think I understand the mentality. They're fanatics, pure and simple; politics, like religion, attracts people looking for causes.
That's their reason for wanting to take over the GOP.

[S.A.M]

19. Fascist will never die...

they will multiply. Forget about wishful thinking my son...that prediction is valid like the return of Jesus. the 2 party is here to stay unless you do something...

My blog
http://stephenjaymorrisblog.tumblr.com/

[M.G.]

20. I don't think they will die, but...

The GOP won't die, but i believe intraparty bickering and demographics will force them to moderate in time.

[bemildred]

21. Bullshit will only take you so far.

The last days of the Southern Strategy, that's seems clear.

[M.G.]

22. Hopefully...

Last edited Sat Oct 12, 2013, 06:09 PM - Edit history (1)

Hopefully we're reaching the point where the Southern Strategy is actually a liability, at least outside of red state local politics.

[bemildred]

23. Well, if you watch, like I do, you can see that it is getting harder all the time

to stall change, which is what this is all about, preventing democratic changes in the the political life of this nation, the greedy and needy few trying fearfully to hang on to their illusions of power and importance. We got a lot of political reforms through in the 60s and 70s, but economic reforms were successfully prevented, even reversed, and that's been leveraged into a reactionary counter-revolution, which is now running out of steam, because it's, well, reactionary, trying to hang onto the past, which is, well, past. I mean they are cheating like mad, and still losing.

[M.G.]

24. I think that's right

I think the public is moving more towards center-left or moderate left politics and we're going to slowly see that shift reflected in the national discourse. The right won't go away, but I think the window will slightly shift.

I tend to see the modern state of political affairs as the angry right's last gasp (at a national level).

[gopiscrap]

27. BTW Welcome to DU

[M.G.]

28. Thanks!

[gopiscrap]

26. OMG I hope it is the last days of the GOP and the Tea Party!