Republicans Could Be Weakening Their Party’s Future - By Charlie Cook

[DonViejo]

There is no question that the Republican Party’s brand is experiencing grievous damage. In fact, you would be quite believable if you were to suggest that the GOP has been making an active, masochistic effort to isolate itself from moderate, independent, and swing voters, further exacerbating all the problems with target constituencies that cost Mitt Romney the presidency and the GOP a national popular House vote victory.

Of course, there have been wave elections in the past, where large numbers of seats swung from one party to the other. Democrats benefited from such elections in 1958, 1964, 1974, 1982, 2006, and 2008, just as Republicans came out the big winners in 1966, 1980, 1994, and 2010. But history doesn’t argue for a repeat this time. Seven of these 10 wave elections were midterms, as 2014 will be. In every one of the seven, the party in the White House, not the opposition party, suffered.

There is reason to look at 2014 as unique. Democrats picked up net gains of 31 seats in 2006 and 21 seats in 2008. Between these two elections, they managed to pluck all but a few hardy Republicans from competitive districts. In 2010, Republicans returned the favor, with a net gain of 63 seats. In those three elections, each side pretty much removed the low-hanging fruit, leaving very few Democrats and Republicans in potentially marginal districts; neither party is in a position to easily gain many seats.

At The Cook Political Report, we have always said, given their structural advantages, House Republicans would pretty much need to self-destruct to lose control of the chamber. Today, they seem to be flirting with just that possibility, but the election is still more than a year away, and it is far too early to say that the House majority is at risk. Minimal net party change is still the most likely outcome, but we no longer forecast a GOP gain of two to seven seats; that swing could now just as plausibly go in Democrats’ direction.

full article
http://www.nationaljournal.com/off-to-the-races/republicans-could-be-weakening-their-party-s-future-20131007

[tartan2]

1. ok everybody I have one question

where is the hell is Paulie Boy Ryan? Did he go into hiding?

[Xyzse]

12. There is a big piece on him today

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/09/20884616-first-thoughts-the-beginning-of-the-end?lite&ocid=msnhp&pos=1

The beginning of the end? Paul Ryan op-ed appears to be an olive branch and a way out of the budget stalemate… But can conservatives accept that potential end (which has no Obamacare changes?)… Cantor’s bad cop to Ryan’s good cop?... Obama to officially nominate Janet Yellen to head the Fed at 3:00 pm ET… Americans United for Change up with TV ads hitting GOP House members, RNC up with web video reminding that Democrats once opposed raising the debt ceiling… Quinnipiac poll: Booker up by 12 points… And recapping last night’s Christie-vs.-Buono debate.

By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Jessica Taylor, NBC News

*** The beginning of the end? For those looking to reopen the federal government and avoid default, yesterday was a pretty disheartening day, if you simply listened to the rhetoric. After President Obama floated a way out -- temporarily open the government and raise the debt to begin longer-term budget negotiations -- House Speaker John Boehner called it “unconditional surrender.” But as bad as the rhetoric was, there was actually some intriguing behind-the-scenes developments that shouldn’t be ignored. In fact, it could be the latest attempt by Boehner to bring this to an end. Yesterday, Republicans began floating proposals that had nothing to do with health care. Moreover, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan argued for “both sides” to “agree to common-sense reforms of the country’s entitlement programs and tax code.” What he called for were some of the very things that Obama and Democrats have already put on the table. Medicare means-testing? Check. Further long-term entitlement cuts (like Chained CPI?)? Check. Bipartisan tax reform? Check. Most important, however, was what Ryan DIDN’T MENTION in the op-ed: any changes to the president’s health-care law. So Ryan’s op-ed is a pretty big deal; it’s an olive branch (from its tone) and it lays a potential way out.

[gopiscrap]

2. I hope to God they are

[Cosmocat]

3. Gerrymandering

just a fricken national disaster ...

The republicans have to default the country into a crisis to MAYBE lose the house?

Whisky
Tango
Foxtrot

[Orsino]

4. The GOP is led by weaklings...

...who are in turn led by money.

[Squinch]

5. Gosh, ya think?

[summerschild]

6. The GOP is getting off too easy by everyone blaming the Tea Party.

THEY ARE REPUBLICANS! A rose by any other name is still a rose....

If they don't support what these anarchists are doing AS republicans, they need to repudiate them and take them down!

[Gothmog]

7. I hope that Cook is right

I have a feeling that we are going to the debt ceiling limit and beyond. It is going to take a 1,000 point drop in the Dow to convince these idiots that they are hurting the party

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. Could?

Could?

[ailsagirl]

9. They used to be all on the same page

Now they've splintered...

Their party is crumbling

They're coming off like loonies and Dems now aren't the only ones to notice

[DFW]

10. I have a lot of respect for Charlie Cook

He's one of the hardest-working, most well-traveled analysts out there. He does his homework.

The bottom line of his analysis is, unfortunately, that the House stays in Republicans hands, and gridlock stays. So far, anyway.

[davidpdx]

11. I agree, even though the Republicans are screwing themselves hard right now

most districts will be too partisan to swing. The best case scenario is we hold on to the Senate and we pick up half a dozen or so seats in the House. That would set up a serious showdown in 2016 at all levels. If things are going to change, it would be then.