New poll shows Booker lead shrinking in N.J. Senate race

[a kennedy]

http://www.app.com/article/20131001/NJNEWS1002/310010023/Cory-Booker-s-lead-shrinks-slightly-special-Senate-race-new-poll-says

Cory Booker is seeing his lead in the special U.S. Senate race in New Jersey tighten slightly, and a plurality of voters believe his national profile is more important to the Newark mayor than serving the state, according to a new Monmouth University poll.

Booker, a nationally prominent Democrat, still is maintaining a double-digit lead, the poll results show, but Republican Steve Lonegan has closed the gap a little since the last Monmouth University survey in August.

Booker now holds a 13-point lead, 53-40 percent, rather than a 16-point lead, but the difference is within the poll’s margin of error. The election to fill the unexpired term of the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg will be held on Oct. 16.

The poll, released this morning, comes following several weeks of intense campaigning, especially by Lonegan, leading up to the Oct. 16 vote.

Not surprisingly, Booker is running strong among the state’s Democrats, with 88 percent saying they would vote for him if the election were held today. By contrast, 83 percent of Republicans say they would vote for Lonegan. The poll shows that a plurality of independents – 45 percent – are in Booker’s corner.

15 days to go.....don't think he's going to lose this race though.

[frazzled]

1. A 13-point lead is "shrinking"?

Or were you being sarcastic

[Dawson Leery]

3. The change is within the margin of error which is 4.1%. on a small sample of 570.

Booker still has been on the air more than Lonegan and Booker has 55-28 favorable rating. Lonegan is at 34-30.

The sample should have 900-1100 participants.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. Gotta give the Repubs some "hope" I guess?

[a kennedy]

7. yah, actually I laughed at the 13 point lead shrinking too....

probably shouldn't have even posted this article.

[Dawson Leery]

2. He will win by at least 10 points.

[Dawson Leery]

5. kick

[mgcgulfcoast]

6. +25 win for us.

[davidpdx]

8. Races are always going to tighten as the election comes closer

Undecideds make up their minds. A 13 point lead is fairly steep. The last poll was in August or about 6 weeks ago. If Lonegan has only closed 3 points in 6 weeks, then what are the chances he'll close 13 points in the next 2 weeks. Zero...it's simple math.

[Dawson Leery]

9. kick

[Dawson Leery]

10. kick

[Dawson Leery]

11. kick

[Dwayne Hicks]

12. Booker exposed the extremist for what he is tonight!

I think Booker has got this.

[bklyncowgirl]

13. This is all about turnout--I woudn't be complacent.

As I wrote in my "talk me down" thread, there are some things happening which could cause an upset.

1. The teabaggers will be out in force. They may be small in numbers but they ALWAYS vote. Lonegan is aggressively painting Booker as a Hollywood/Wall Street elitist Obama clone and crooked and incompetent to boot.

2. Ordinary people, those who don't eat and breathe politics are right now pretty well disgusted with politicians--rightly or wrongly many blame both sides. Many will stay home.

3. The election is on a Wednesday, October 16 to be exact. Confusing to the casual voter? Maybe.

My hope is that enough ordinary New Jerseyans will be scared enough by Lonegan to get out and vote but the complacent attitude seen by the New Jersey Democratic Party, the crowd that brought us Corzine, gives me pause.

[Dawson Leery]

14. I understand.

Christie set the election for Wednesday in order to make trouble for us.
He is your typical Rethug.

[Dawson Leery]

15. kick

[geek tragedy]

16. The change is within the margin of error, unlike Steve Lonegan nt

[nyquil_man]

17. There seems to be a tendency in NJ polling

for the frontrunner's lead to shrink as the election approaches. That pattern could be seen in the 2005 and 2009 gubernatorial races.

It's happening in the gubernatorial race this year, too, where Christie's lead has shrunk from about 3-1 to 2-1.

The best indicator of the outcome of a race in Jersey is the state of polling about 50 days prior to the election.

[Dawson Leery]

18. I tend to agree.

Final polls had New Jersey close last fall. Obama did better in 2012 than 2008 in the final tally.