Here Comes the Shutdown: Three Reasons It Will Hurt the GOP - by David Frum

[DonViejo]

by David Frum Sep 28, 2013 7:15 PM EDT

Uh oh! A House plan to delay Obamacare has put the government on the brink of a shutdown—for real this time. David Frum on why the infighting is sure to backfire on the Republicans.

The federal government swerved toward a shutdown on Saturday when House Republicans demanded to hold a vote to delay Obamacare by one year instead of cooperating with the Senate to pass a “clean” spending bill. It's now practically assured that parts of the government will go dark on Tuesday for the first time in 17 years.

From a Republican point of view, there are three possible happy endings to the looming catastrophe.

Happy Ending #1: The president blinks. He's blinked before after all—notably when he agreed to sequestration in 2011—and who knows? He might blink again.

Problem with Happy Ending #1: This time, though, "blinking" means blowing up the president's most important legacy: his health-care plan. That's more than a blink. He might as well hand in his resignation after that.

Full article
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/09/28/here-comes-the-shutdown-three-reasons-it-will-hurt-the-gop.html

[no_hypocrisy]

1. Here's what I don't understand.

The "Tea Party" is a minority faction in a majority.

If the "mainstream" republicans outnumber the TP, disagree with the TP, why don't they vote with the dems this one time to make a point? The TP should be taking its marching orders from the majority.

Is the Tea Party so well financed that there is a true primary threat for every vote that differs from the TP?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

2. Because they really agree with the Teabaggers. They're only pretending that they don't

[no_hypocrisy]

3. OK, that makes sense.

[IphengeniaBlumgarten]

4. The "Hastert Rule"

There is an informal rule among R's that dates back to Denny Hastert's time as Speaker. This rule is that the Speaker does not allow a general vote on anything where he does not have a majority of his own party on board. This is not a binding rule of the House, but Boehner is afraid to go against it --- yet. We can hope that he finds the courage to do so soon, as, clearly, if he allows a vote, Democrats and sane Republicans can vote together to stop any shutdown.

[Make7]

6. He's gone against it before...

http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2012/roll659.xml

Republican:
Ayes 85
Noes 151

Democratic:
Ayes 172
Noes 16
[div style="width:22.5em; height:1.2em; border-bottom:1px solid #999999;"]
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2013/roll022.xml

Republican:
Ayes 38
Noes 190

Democratic:
Ayes 190
Noes 2
[div style="width:22.5em; height:1.2em; border-bottom:1px solid #999999;"]
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2013/roll055.xml

Republican:
Ayes 87
Noes 138

Democratic:
Ayes 199
Noes 0

[BlueDemKev]

5. Frum may be too optimistic

Even if this backfires on the GOP (and that's a BIG if) these fanatics will never give up the fight. When the tea-baggers are completely wiped out at the voting booth at the federal level (and they'll keep the House until at least 2020 thanks to the gerrymandering following the 2010 midterm elections) the teahadists will make good on their rhetoric to take up their firearms and start a civil war. I'm beginning to believe America will split into two or more nations before the 21st Century is over.