2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumJohn Boehner says ‘one-in-three’ chance GOP loses House
Speaker John Boehner is officially worried about losing the House majority this fall.
The Ohio Republican said in an interview with Fox News Channel that will run on Tuesday that there is a one-in-three chance that Democrats will win the House in November a headline that will surely catch peoples attention.
I would say that there is a two-in-three chance that we win control of the House again, but theres a one-in-three chance that we could lose, Boehner said in the interview. Weve got a big challenge, and weve got work to do.
--------
We have 50 of our members in tough races, 89 freshmen running for their first reelections, and we have 32 districts that are in states where there is no presidential campaign going to be run, no big Senate race and we call these orphan districts, Boehner said in the interview. You take 18 of them California, Illinois and New York where you know were not likely to do well at the top of the ticket, and those districts are frankly pretty vulnerable.
More: WaPo Story
unblock
(52,253 posts)freshwest
(53,661 posts)Andy823
(11,495 posts)However I think there is a whole lot of buyers remorse with the "tea party" nuts that got elected in 2010, and that is not going to help them. With a lot of the so called "christian right" who "won't" vote for Mitt, and who are very unhappy with the teabaggers they voted for in 2010, I think a huge majority of them will stay home. Not to mention the fact republicans are pissing off women, the elderly, immigrants, public employees, first responders, etc. There isn't really a whole lot of incentive to get out and vote when you are a republican this year and you can't stand the guy at the top, or the house reps that are down ticket.
I think republicans are in big trouble and it looks like Boehner knows it.
freshwest
(53,661 posts)State legislatures or the Congress. And they've worked relentlessly to disenfranchise Democratic voters. May this be the turning of the tide. We can move forward in the this country instead of back a thousand years as the Koch brothers want us to go.
Andy823
(11,495 posts)I think they want to do as much damage as they can in case they do lose their jobs, and I think a lot of them will. They are simply crazy, and they are not just making democrats angry. A lot of people who have voted republican in the past will be hurt by the republican agenda, and while some of the insane base won't care, many who are not so insane are not happy. No mater what party you are in, when you take a hard look at what has been going on, it's pretty clear the republicans in congress are out to help the rich, not the average person, and while many of those who have voted republican in the past might not vote for the democrats, I still see a lot of them just staying home, and that will help Obama and the democrats down ticket, that is if we can make sure democrats get out and vote and don't sit home like many seemed to have done in 2010.
freshwest
(53,661 posts)Bake
(21,977 posts)The nuts just keep on coming.
Bake
freshwest
(53,661 posts)alp227
(32,033 posts)There are probably people who voted Republican for many elections in a row and then those who sit on the fence.
elleng
(130,974 posts)Ready to go!
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Winning the house is realistic.
:kick:
and-justice-for-all
(14,765 posts)global1
(25,253 posts)it appears that it is realistic that the Dems can take back the house. In my opinion it is within striking distance - so let's see what we can do to take back the House for our President and by the way - maintain the Senate.
ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)Even though too many Democrats, including Kennedy, were aiming at his back, most still thought initially, that Carter would prevail. I was too innocent in those days to ever consider that people of the same party would actively sabotage a campaign.
emulatorloo
(44,131 posts)surrealAmerican
(11,362 posts)It's a bit strange, the way he's making odds here.
freshwest
(53,661 posts)Jimmy the Greek had a reputation on this, good or bad. I found a list of odds he'd made in past elections:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1123768/index.htm
Nothing about these races now, although he was right some times.
racaulk
(11,550 posts)ellisonz
(27,711 posts)freshwest
(53,661 posts)The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)The total vote for Republicans running for the House in 2010 was lower than the total vote for Republicans running for the House in 2008.
former9thward
(32,025 posts)Non-presidential election years always have lower vote totals.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)What gives it point is that the winning total in 2010 was less than the losing total in 2008. That points towards serious trouble for the other side in this Presidential year, and also makes hash of attempts to claim 2010 represented some great increase in radical right sentiment in the country/
Cosmocat
(14,566 posts)the fact is, the morons who get elected in 2010 are still incumbents.
We are stuck with most of the class of 94 for a decade or more.
I think as long as things go the way the APPEAR to go, President Obama SHOULD win reelect, and the Ds should make gains in the House. But, I tend to agree with Boner that taking the House back is less than 50%. And, sadly, given the way the seats are this year, the Rs actually have a good chance to get control of the senate.
Ds have to absolutely get behind the president and KILL it to avoid this scenario.
former9thward
(32,025 posts)The number of people voting is far lower. Compare with 2004, 2000.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,414 posts)is he acknowledging that maybe the American public just "isn't into them"?
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Thrill
(19,178 posts)out there for Democrats.
The Republicans haven't done shit since taking over and they still may keep it? Unreal
BlueIris
(29,135 posts)That'd be nice. Especially since I think we're still in a bad place via the Senate. Biden's comments from early last year are still relevant:
http://www.politicsdaily.com/2011/03/22/democrats-could-lose-senate-biden-warns-party/
NNRA
(11 posts)There is no doubt in my mind that they are about to lose, and big. I wouldn't be surprised if Dems take the house with room to spare. They might get 3/4 of the house. Just saying.