2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama Returns To Tar Heel State, The One That Got Away
Last edited Fri Jun 7, 2013, 11:31 PM - Edit history (1)
On Thursday President Barack Obama will take his second trip back to North Carolina since the November election.
The visit to the swing state he won by a hair in 2008 but lost last time around is to announce a new program called ConnectED, a five-year initiative to bring high speed Internet to 99 percent of American students. But the repeat state visitone of only a handful so far in the second termalso highlights the Democratic Partys frustrations in North Carolina, its toehold into the South.
In 2008, bolstered by record African American turnout and a commanding hold on the youth vote, Obama became the first Democrat to win the Tar Heel state since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Despite increased turnout, a four-year field operation, $24 million in television ads, and the partys national convention in Charlottenot to mention frequent visits by Obama and surrogatesthe state flipped back red in 2012. In November, Mitt Romney won by 92,000 votes, and a conservative Republican, Pat McCrory, was swept into the statehouse, carrying both houses of the general assembly with him.
For Obama, North Carolina, the state he won by the narrowest margin in 2008 and lost by the tightest margin in 2012, is the one that got away.
But the feeling doesnt seem mutual. North Carolinas general assembly, roughly 65 percent of which is Republican following redistricting, has of late tried to push through legislation befitting a deep red state, considering bills establishing Christianity as the states official religion (it failed to pass), eliminating the earned income tax credit, and cutting the number of early voting days before elections. Sen. Josh Stein, the Democratic Minority Whip, told TIME that Republicans are governing us as if we are a deep red state, when we are decidedly a purple state.
Hundreds of liberals, organized by the NAACP, have protested outside the state capitol each week for more than a month against those and other proposals. More than 150 demonstrators were arrested after this weeks MoralMonday protest.
The general assembly is simply going too far, Stein said, and thats going to show in the next election.
Democrats would like to believe the states political future is up in the air. Hispanics have been flocking to the North Carolinatheir number more than doubled between 2000 and 2010as diverse and largely liberal cities continue to grow. Democrats already have an 800,000-person edge in voter registration, according to figures from the State Board of Elections.
National Democrats, who are growing increasingly bolder in their attempts to make gains in Republican territory, say the 2012 defeat and McCrorys policies only make the state more of a target in the future. Democrats have been contesting North Carolina for five years, said one Democratic Party official. 2012 wasnt a banner year for Democrats there, but the electoral landscape has shifted to a degree. This is going to be a state that Democrats continually look at and keep going on there.
But Rob Lockwood, a Republican communicator and former spokesman for the state GOP, says that 2012 proves 2008 was an aberration in North Carolinas political history.
The modern ultra-liberal Democratic Party will struggle to win in North Carolina, he said. It is an instinctively conservative state evidenced by conservative Democrats choosing to reject Barack Obamas re-election. Obama put up what was heralded as the greatest ground game ever. He had more staff, more offices, the DNC convention, and four year head-start and still couldnt win.
Voters In the last election rejected the policies of President Obama pretty clearly This is a solidly Republican state, agreed North Carolina Republican Party Chairman Robin Hayes. It mystifies me that hes coming here.
Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, who is up for reelection in 2014 and is trying to carve a path in the state as a conservative Democrat, will not attend Obamas event, according to a spokespersona decision that Republicans are pointing to as a sign both of Obamas liability to Democrats in the state and Hagans vulnerability.
Gary Pearce, a former adviser to four-term Democratic Gov. Jim Hunt (when the state voted for Republicans nationally) and a longtime political observer in the state, admitted Obama fell in 2012 at the hands of conservative Democrats and moderates. He did not do as well with moderate swing voters as he did in 2008Obamacare, taxes, and the cost of government hurt him.
Scandals dominating the state party didnt help Democrats either. We picked a pretty bad year to melt down, Pearce said.
In September, DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz told Fox News that the state was picked to host the convention so it could be a beachhead for DNC efforts in the South. We were planting a flag in the South and sending a strong message across the country that we werent going to cede any region of this country to the Republicans, she said.
In 2012 those efforts fell short, but whats clear is that the state Obama just missed holding onto will be the site of some of the nations most intense political battles for the foreseeable future as Democrats look to expand their map and Republicans work to recover from national defeats. Republicans cant win the White House without us, Pearce said. And its probably more closely divided here than in any state.
Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2013/06/06/obama-returns-to-tar-heel-state-the-one-that-got-away/#ixzz2VSQNDEXH
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)illegaloperation
(260 posts)In 2008, NC was R+3.20. In 2012, NC was R+2.75.
North Carolina is definitely moving to the left.
For a Democratic president to win North Carolina in 2016, he (or she) will have to win ~52% of the popular vote.
Of cause, if the economy picks up, North Carolina can move even faster to the left.
What have me worry is that because of redistricting, NC Republicans now have a supermajority in the general assembly and they are: cutting early voting, eliminate same-day registration, and enacting voter ID.
Also, North Carolina Democratic Party is in shambles. It is absolutely in ruin!
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)We desperately need the help.
illegaloperation
(260 posts)North Carolina Democratic Party is a complete wreck and practically sending out an SOS. It needs outside help as soon as possible.
The North Carolina state government is hijacked by a bunch of right wing extremist and governor Pat McCrory is a puppet for Art Pope.
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)but in NC? Dear God, I'm not sure what age we're moving back to. The tax reform proposals are INSANE. I'm going to Moral Monday on the 10th... can't wait to see the turnout, what with the additional folks delivering the petition to McCrory re: class size, etc.
illegaloperation
(260 posts)The tax reform proposals: even a deep red state like Louisiana didn't buy it.
illegaloperation
(260 posts)Apparently, DNC believe that North Carolina is the beachhead to go back to the South.
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)Funny, we hear ad nauseam from the BOGers that it's because lesson-teaching emoprogs sat home. It *ain't*.
Where are you, Sensible Centrists? We need the help. NOW. Not just 2014, and 2016, and 2018...
treestar
(82,383 posts)did not work on elections (which their effort is the only thing that got Obama elected) and close their purses. It was their idea that their disappointment would lead to losses for the Democrats. They are the base and if they are not pleased, then we lose.
The idea it was swing moderate voters who changed contradicts that.
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)Study the data for North Carolina... I'm not doing the work for you. Liberals voted; the Malleable Middle, embraced by BOGers, stayed home.
treestar
(82,383 posts)They didn't get those middlers to vote Yet they claimed before their work was the only reason these people voted.
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)compliments of, I'm guessing, one of the many Crap Blogs favored by BOGers. Who exactly is this "they" you speak of? Give me precise examples.
I don't need to re-evaluate shit. I've voted in every election since moving to NC, often holding my nose while filling in those little circles. If these dumbasses in the middle can't take a fucking stand on anything -- can't make up their minds from election to election -- they're the problem. Not emoprogs out canvassing with their little clipboards, or furiously making calls on their cell phones. And where does Obama fit in to any of this? You know, getting people to vote not just for him, but for Democrats? He didn't focus much on NC in 2010 or 2012, and God knows he was MIA during the marriage equality debacle in May 2012. In 2010 and 2012, more votes were cast for Dems than Rs in NC, but Rs won because of gerrymandering. Even with the economy in the tank, high unemployment, and furor over Death Panels, Dems still received more votes. Libruls did their part. Shift the blame to where it is deserved.
illegaloperation
(260 posts)They are stuck with an Art Pope's puppet for four more years.
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)and many are DESPERATE for jobs. No Dems in my circle voted for McCrory, but they're out there. They believed he was the "aw, shucks" moderate mayor from Charlotte who would be good for the economy; they're certainly getting a rude awakening that he's anything but.
illegaloperation
(260 posts)Democrats can make very compelling arguments why Republicans shouldn't be elected.
Hopefully McCrory get shown the door.
WorseBeforeBetter
(11,441 posts)Were the only state that is doing this, said Bill Rowe, director of advocacy for the N.C. Justice Center, a group that champions issues on behalf of the poor. People will have less money to pay their rent or mortgage payment or utility bills and all the other necessities their families need. Theyll have less money or, in some cases, no money.
....
Gary Salamido, a lobbyist for the N.C. Chamber, which pushed hard for the new law, said North Carolina businesses ended up paying $395 million in additional federal and state taxes last year because of the situation. Individuals dont pay unemployment taxes, just businesses.
....
Salamido said that in the past, Congress passed a law that grandfathered in four states Arkansas, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island so they could reduce the amount of unemployment they offer without losing their federally funded benefits. But this year, the chamber struck out in its efforts to gain a similar concession for North Carolina.
We dont know why we were not allowed the same courtesy, Salamido said.
....
http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/06/08/2948000/70000-long-term-unemployed-in.html#storylink=cpy
I'd like to offer a heart FU to Salamido, McCrory, and EVERYONE on board with this decision.
Yes, hopefully, he will, but 2016 seems EONS away. This state will be unrecognizable by then.