An explanation for the disparity in polls
[the Gallup track, which is conducted among registered voters, has a sample that looks much more like the electorate in 2010 than the voting population that is likely to turn out in 2012: only 22 percent of the Gallup survey was non-white, according to figures the organization provided to Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz. That was close to the non-white share of the vote in 2010 (23 percent), but in 2008, minorities comprised 26 percent of all voters, according to exit polls; the Obama campaign, and other analysts, project the minority share of the vote will increase to 28 percent in 2012. In its survey, Pew, for instance, puts the non-white share at 25 percent.
][link:http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/18/1084449/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Polling-Wrap-How-demographics-can-account-for-disparities-in-Obama-Romney-polls|
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