2012 Electoral Map Forecast (Good news for Obama)

[jenmito]

REPUBLICAN 133

DEMOCRAT 263

TOSSUP 142

http://electoralmap.net/2012/intrade.php

ETA-This # doesn't even include Illinois ("no Intrade data&quot and that's 20 electoral votes which would give Obama 283 and the election)!

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Very cool map!

I like how the details are revealed.

[izquierdista]

2. South Carolina a "tossup"?

Somebody needs to recalibrate their method.

[jenmito]

3. No. South Carolina is gray-no data available. n/t

[Major Hogwash]

4. I don't think Romney will get as many electoral votes as McCain did in 2008.

Last edited Tue Apr 17, 2012, 08:27 AM - Edit history (1)

Maybe 140, but that's about it.

[Mr.Turnip]

6. Actually even if the map stays the same as 08 Romney gets more EVs due to the last census.

[Major Hogwash]

21. McCain only got 173 electoral votes in 2008.

And he wasn't Mormon.
If you think the Southern Baptists down South are just going to pinch their nose to vote for Romney, you're sadly mistaken.
For a real bible-pounding, tongue-talking, Christian fundamentalist to vote for a Mormon would be the kind of blasphemy that would cause them to be cast into hell for it.

Romney won't win the same states that McCain won in 2008.
And he won't win as many.

[Daniel537]

23. I have to see that to believe it.

As much as they may hate Mormons, the good ol' boys really, really hate Obama. Some will sit it out, but i'd be stunned if Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana turned blue this year.

[Cosmocat]

26. Except the evil, socialist, communist, muslim anti-christ democrat is worse

People lose sight of the fact that the WHOLE republican/conservative scam starts with the foil - the evil liberal.

We saw posted here that Liberty University has told its sheep to shut up and take the Mormon because it is better than the evil liberal (insert here).

Not saying it will mean BO will lose, or that Romney will have the FULL support of every R.

But, the rock red states ARE going to vote for him in totality.

[rufus dog]

11. that would be tough

Obama would have to either win Missouri to take the place of Indiana, (or win Indiana again) and pick off a couple of other states to make up for the new breakdown of EVs. That being said it will be in the 320 to 340 range.

[Denninmi]

5. Illinois -- seriously, I can't imagine any scenario whereby Obama wouldn't carry Illinois.

[Daniel537]

7. I'm guessing they don't have any "official" data,

but common sense tells you how most of the grey states on the map are going to go.

[jenmito]

8. I agree. It's just that they don't have any Intrade data for IL. Doesn't mean he's not favored to

win it. IF he wins all the other dark blue AND light blue states plus IL, he wins.

[LynneSin]

22. Zombies wipe out the entire population of Chicago

That's about all I could come up with

[libinnyandia]

9. Nader got 4 times as many votes in Missouri as McCain's margin of victoryn in 2008 so maybe

Obama can win Missouri this time.

[mikekohr]

27. Nader again! Wasn't he satisfied with 2000?

Go away Ralph.

[KinMd]

10. Tossups?

The map has Maryland, Rhode Island, and the District of Columbia in grey? Really? Romney couldn't carry any of those if his dog Seamus was the only one on the ballot besides him

[rufus dog]

12. Agreed

As it stand now there is no way Romney can get to 270, thus the forthcoming dirtiest election in American history.

[jenmito]

14. No-gray doesn't mean "tossup," it means there's been no data taken in those places. n/t

[Tarheel_Dem]

13. K&R

[yellowcanine]

15. + Maryland (10), Vermont (3), DC (3), and Rhode Island (4) so 303.

[jenmito]

17. Yup! n/t

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. I wish there was some way we could get the national guard from all over the US

to man every single solitary polling place in Ohio on election day to insure that all is
kosher.

In addition, the Democratic Party (don't know who else would pay) should pay
for an independent IT audit of all voting software. This independent audit
team should also be hired on election night to fully monitor info security.

Just saying.

They know they have to have Ohio. And ever since BushCo defrauded this
country into a war based on fake premises, I trust no one with piddly
election fraud.

[jenmito]

18. I bet Obama will have people all over it! n/t

[Nancy Waterman]

19. Maryland should not be a toss up

There is not a chance in hell it will go red. Never. It is so reliable no one comes here to campaign.

[yellowcanine]

20. "Tossup" was a mistake. Gray means no data. This map is based on betting/trading.

Illinois, Maryland, Vermont, Rhode Island, DC are all clear blue states which end up gray here so it is clear that this is Obama's election to lose at this point; Romney is nowhere close to 270 EVs.

[Zadoc]

24. Poor map

Basing an electoral map off of Intrade, a political betting site, is a bad idea. Those guys are always wrong until a few weeks, or even a few days out. The only basis should be on polling. Of which there is very little right now, except for in swing states.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. Pretty much...

It's good to know where the trend is, but you're absolutely right. Intrade is only effective essentially a couple weeks prior to the election. Yeah, they were spot on in '08 (well, except for Indiana & NC, I believe), but again, it only becomes extremely reliable the closer we get to the election.