2016 US Presidential Election

[NPolitics1979]

Democratic Nominee wins
CA-55
CT-7(62)
DE-3(65)
DC-3(68)
HI-4(72)
IL-20(92)
IA-6(98)
ME-(102)
MD-10(112)
MA-11(123)
MI-16(139)
MN-10(149)
NH-4(153)
NJ-14(167)
NM-5(172)
NY-29(201)
OR-7(208)
PA-20(228)
RI-4(232)
VT-3(235)
WA-12(247)
WI-10(257)
Plus CO-9 and NV-6(272ev)
VA-13(270ev)
OH-18(275)
FL-29(286)
Republican nominee must carry the Romney States 206ev plus FL-29,VA-13,OH-18,and CO-9 or NV-6.

[aaaaaa5a]

1. The map is on our favor. But take nothing for granted.

What's interesting is that Hillary has a path to 270 WITHOUT VA, FL or OH.


Could you imagine being the GOP on election night and winning OH, VA and FL and still losing the election?

[NPolitics1979]

2. Hillary is winning CO-9 and or NV-6

or WV-5 and AR-6 and LA-9- states Bubba carried in 1996 with over 50 percent of the popular vote.
Hillary recieves 242ev (States Democratic nominee carried in every election from 1992-2012)
Hillary wins NH-4,NM-5,and IA-6=257ev plus MO-10 =267ev and AR-6=273ev).
Biden-D needs to hold onto OH-18,IA-6,WI-10,MI-16,PA-20,MN-10,NH-4,and NM-5

[aaaaaa5a]

3. I hope you are right. However.....

Bubba carried many states in 1992 and 1996 that he otherwise never would have carried in a million years thanks to Ross Perot. His 3rd party candidacy cut Bush's margin with white voters allowing Clinton to win in states like LA.

For the map in 2016, WV will be tough. WV has moved more red over the last 20 years. LA is GOP territory. Without a 3rd party candidacy to split the white vote, we are likely not winning there either.

AR is very interesting. The Clinton's have huge ties there. But the state is more GOP now than it was 20 years ago. I would bet against her winning there in 2016.


The good news is the Kerry 04 states are solidly in her corner. NM and NV are now blue states in Presidential elections. VA is a lean blue state. I like Hillary's chances a lot in NC. I think she can win there too. She would also be the favorite in CO.

MO will be a true tossup state in 2016.

IN will be a true tossup state too.

Either way, there is more than enough on the table to get Hillary into office in 2016. A 3rd Democratic term could start to turn the Supreme Court. It will allow the further advancement of ObamaCare, possible to single payer. And of course she would be ground-breaking as was her predecessor, this time for being the first woman president in our country's history.

[NPolitics1979]

4. NC and VA are the anti Bubba pro Barack states.

From 1988 to 2008 they voted for Dole and both of the Bush's.
2008 and 2012 they voted for Barack.
Winning the gore/Kerry states gives Hillary 257ev (trade IA for NV) and (trade WI for CO)
A victory in VA-13 puts her at 269ev (NH-4 and NM-5 are in Hillary's collumn along with MI-16 and PA-20)
A victory in NC-15 puts her at 284ev.

[dsc]

8. actually Clinton came within a whisker of winning NC

it was the closest state he lost in 92. Had he really needed it, he likely would have won it.

[daybranch]

6. Can you imagine

we elect another democratic president and the republicans hold onto the House. can you imagine another 4 years of their destruction of our country? The crucial battle is to overcome the Gerrymandering the repubs have done. That I know will be tough if not impossible in Ohio.
The Presidential race may be looking good for us and I think we will have gains in the Senate based on changing demographics and the recognition that republicans are scary by a majority of voters, but we need the House. It is key to getting progressive policies implemented .

[aaaaaa5a]

7. Sadly, I don't think the House will be in play again until 2020.

The off year elections of 2018 will be pivotal. The legislators here will determine the new districts.

What is going on now is crazy. It should not be possible for one party to lose in the House of Representatives by more than a million votes Nationally, and still control the House by a whopping 33 seats! Its unbelievable what the GOP has done to the democratic process and the country.


If you could run the 2012 election based on House districts prior to 2010, Nancy Pelosi would be speaker of the house without changing one vote.

[davidpdx]

5. I think FL, VA, and OH will be the main three swing states

with maybe NC, and MO teetering. I agree whomever the nominee is if they don't win those three they could still win.

[CANDO]

9. PA and MI may split their EV

Both states are serious possibilities to split their EV according to congressional district or other formula rather than winner take all.

[NPolitics1979]

10. Hillary wins all of the Obama-D 2012 states. Including CO-9,VA-13,OH-18,and FL-29

332ev minus 20ev (CDs from MI and PA) 312ev minus 30ev (CDs from FL and OH)=282ev

[NPolitics1979]

11. Hillary's eV numbers if FL,PA,MI,OH,VA,and WI does P.R.- CD.

Hillary wins popular vote in FL,OH,VA,and CO= 332ev (winner take all)
-9ev(MI)=323ev
-13ev(PA)= 310ev
-5ev (WI)= 305ev
-7ev (VA)= 298ev
-12ev (OH)= 286ev
-16ev (FL)= 270ev