2014 MT US Senate Election- Baucus-D has to overcome 3 obstacle.

[NPolitics1979]

1)Potential Democratic Primary from Schweitzer-D. If Schweitzer runs he wins primary and general unless Racicot is the GOP nominee. If Schweitzer-D does not run, Baucus-D wins the Democratic primary against-Keenan.
2)November General- Against Racicot,Daines,and Fox- Baucus-D loses re-election. Against Stapleton or Edmunds, Baucus-D could survive another term.
3) Make sure the Republican nominee makes an Akin/Angle like gaffe.

The race could become 2010 CT(Dodd-D gets replaced by Blumenthal-D who ends up winning in the general against McMahon-R) 2010 NV(Reid-D survives against Angle-R).

Another scenario is get Baucus to resign his seat to become a lobbyist or a cabinet official and have Steve Bullock appoint Schweitzer-D as a replacement.

[Dawson Leery]

1. Who is the prefered GOP nominee?

[2naSalit]

2. OMG

Does that POS, Racicot still live here? Yikes. I truly want someone else to vote for besides Baucus, he's a waste of taxpayer money on every count. Now I would actually vote for Schweitzer, not completely thrilled with him but he's better than most other prospects. If an R gets in, I think I'll have to go back to Idaho and that's a horrible thing to consider.

[Rowdyboy]

3. Makes perfect sense until you learn that Brian Schweitzer has 0% interest in the senate...

He has repeatedly stated that he won't run. I hope he can be persuaded but one of the things I like about him is that he is pretty strong-minded. I imagine it would take a lot to make him change his mind.

[NPolitics1979]

4. Then Baucus is lucky since his likely Republicsn challengers will end up being

Stapleton or Edmunds- neither are top tier.

[Rowdyboy]

5. Baucus has been crazy lucky his entire political career just to survive....

I really hope Schweitzer changes his mind, but based on what I've read (and that's really all I know) he may skate through again. Montana could do so much better.

[NPolitics1979]

6. I thought Baucus will retire in 2014 and

Schweitzer-D or Keenan-D become the Democratic nominee to replace Baucus.
Schweitzer-D becomes a Likely Democratic hold.
Keenan-D becomes a Tossup. ie (2012 ND US Senate Race)
or
Baucus-D runs one more term- retires in 2020. Gets replaced by MT Governor Steve Bullock.
Other candidates include S.OS Linda McColloch or State Auditor Monica Lindeen.-Both are term limited in 2016, either could challenge Baucus in 2014 or wait until 2020- when he retires.

[MjolnirTime]

7. Baucus needs to overcome being a Conservative or he needs to be overcome.