2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum2014 US Senate Election-Republican Held US Senate Seats that could flip under the right circumstance
GA(OPEN-Chambliss-R)- Barrow-D needs to run and become the Democratic nominee, Republicans need to nominate Broun-R or Gingrey-R and hope make sure nature takes its course.
ME(if Collins-R retires or loses in the GOP primary).
Vulnerable Democratic held US Senate Races are
AK(Begich-D)-Lean/Likely Democratic if Republicans nominate Joe Miller-R, Tossup/Lean Democratic if Republicans nominate Mead Treadwell-R. Republican primary voters are likely to nominate Miller-R.
AR(Pryor-D)-Lean Democratic- GOP challengers are going to be either Mark Darr-R,Steve Womack-R or Tom Cotton-R. All 3 are 2nd tier candidates- however the state is very anti Obama.
IA(OPEN-Harkin-D)-Lean/Likely Democratic if Republicans nominate Steve King-R, Tossup/Lean Democratic if Republicans nominate Tom Latham-R. Republican primary voters are likely to nominate King-R
LA(Landrieu-D)-Lean Democratic- GOP challengers are going to be either one of the LA Republican US Reps. Landrieu-D benifits from crossover appeal and the GOP nominee making alot of gaffes.
MT(Baucus-D)-(Baucus-D vs Daines-R)-Tossup, (Baucus-D vs Stapleton-R)-Lean Democratic. (Schweitzer-D vs Daines-R)-Lean Democratic. (Schweitzer-D vs Stapleton-R)-Likely Democratic. Schweitzer-D only runs if a top tier Republican ie Daines or Fox enters the race.
NC(Hagan-D)-Lean Democratic. First term incumbent in a purple red state.
SD(Johnson-D)- (Johnson-D vs Rounds-R)-Tossup/Lean Democratic. (Herseth-D vs Rounds-R)-Tossup/Lean Republican.
WV(OPEN-Rockefeller-D)-Senator elect Capito-R.
If 2014 is like 2010
Republicans will hold onto GA, pickup WV,SD,AK,MT,and NC.
If 2014 is like 2012
Democrats will pick up GA, lose WV, SD goes either way, Democrats hold onto AK,MT and NC.
Ninga
(8,275 posts)Betty is the author of the "cash for clunkers" that helped the auto industry. She was gerrymandered and is a very viable and well spoken public servant.
Portman is a mealy-mouthed GOP hack and needs to GOOOOOOO.
No Vested Interest
(5,166 posts)v. Portman, though she needs to be better known in southern Ohio.
She'll need good funding to introduce herself in areas where name-recognition needs boosting.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)2016 gives Democrats the opportunity to get rid of Rubio-FL,Portman-OH,Toomey-PA,and Johnson-WI. Kirk-IL retires rather than face Michelle Obama-D,Lisa Madigan,or Sheila Simon.
2014 is going to be the last cycle where Democrats have to play defense.
2010- Republicans held onto KY and MO but picked up ND,IN,AR,MA,WI,PA,and IL. They conceded DE,NV,and CO by nominating unelectable candidates.
2012- Republicans lost MA,ME,and IN, held onto AZ and NV, only picked up NE. Democrats were able to hold onto ND,MT,WI,MO,VA,FL,NM,and OH.
2014- Republicans have to worry about GA-make sure they don't nominate Akin/Mourdock candidate, ME-hope Collins-R runs again.
Democrats are vulnerable in WV-(Capito-R)-Likely Republican, SD-(Rounds-R) Lean Republican, AK-(Treadwell-R)-Tossup/Lean Republican, IA-(Latham-R)-Tossup/Lean Democratic.
Red State Democratic incumbents in AR(Pryor-D) and LA(Landrieu-D) will win re-election due to Republicans nominating the most extreme candidate and the Clintons will be helpful to Pryor-AR and LAndrieu-LA.
The wildcard seats are MT and NC. A right Republican challenger could defeat Baucus-MT and Hagan-NC. However Democrats could hold onto MT with a Schweitzer-D replacing Baucus-D as the Democratic nominee.
Ninga
(8,275 posts)NPolitics1979
(613 posts)Since the Consumer Protection position is a semi cabinet position which expires when Obama leaves office in 2016- How about Sutton running for Governor in 2014 against Kasich and Codray running for the US Senate against Portman.
SawxDem
(2 posts)Begich has incumbency and is a moderate, and polling looks good for him, even against Treadwell. I'd say if anything this seat tilts towards him getting another term. Pryor could be in danger if Cotton runs, but I don't see him running. Plus he's smart enough not to make any gaffe.
Either way, Begich or no Begich, in 2016 Democrats have chances at picking up seats in AZ (pending McCain retiring), FL, IA (again, pending retirement), IL, KY, MO, NC, NH, OH, PA, and WI (best chances are with IL, NH if you run Hassan, PA, and WI, and IA if Grassley retires). If Hillary runs add AR, IN, and maybe even LA to the mix. If by some stretch of the imagination 2014 turns into 2010 and Democrats lose the senate, it will not only be back in Democratic hands, but back to close to 2010 or even 2012 numbers.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)Johnson-SD (facing Rounds-R)- could end up retiring- (Herseth-Sandlin-D is the only Democrat that has a 50-50 chance of holding onto the SD seat if Johnson-D decides to retire.) -2D after WV(OPEN- Rockefeller-D)- Capito-R.
IA(OPEN-Harkin-D) Braley-D vs Latham-R - Tossup/Democratic lean. Lets hope King-R wins the GOP primary.
Hagan-NC and Landrieu-LA are going to face generic Republican opposition. Either of them could end up losing in a 2010 like wave. -3/-4 D
Pryor-AR(against Darr-R or Cotton-R) - faces a tough race but will end up narrowly winning.
Begich-AK(against Treadwell-R)- narrowly wins.
Baucus-MT could face a tough primary against Schweitzer-D (Democratic Hold if Schweitzer-D is the nominee). (Baucus-D vs Stapleton-R) could be a Tossup in a 2010 wave. Baucus's role as Finance committee chair is a liability. -5D
Democrats hold onto open MI, MN(Franken-D) and CO(Udall-D) along with NH(Shaheen-D) and OR(Merkley-D).
Cha
(297,240 posts)Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)no matter how stupid or psychopathic a candidate the R's nominate, (s)he always is competitive in GlenBeckistan.
You think we're ever going to do something about hate Radio?