Hillary Clinton in 2016: Be Afraid, Republicans

[DonViejo]

Feb 3, 2013 10:02 AM EST

Hillary Clinton’s polling ahead of GOP challengers in Texas and Kentucky. And then there’s the youth vote, minorities, women, and the white working class. She’s the one to beat in 2016, writes Lloyd Green, former opposition research counsel to the George H.W. Bush campaign.

Message to the Republican Party: Be afraid, be very afraid.

Hillary Clinton stands atop of the Democratic 2016 scrum, set to resume where Bill left off. A second Clinton candidacy would likely put the white vote in play and jeopardize the GOP’s dominance in the Old Confederacy. Recent polls put Hillary ahead of possible Republican challengers in vote-rich Texas and in Kentucky, home of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul.

Unlike her husband, Hillary is personally disciplined. Unlike Barack Obama, she has demonstrated an ability to connect with beer-track voters across the country.

To understand why Hillary is particularly dangerous to the Republican Party, recall where the Democratic Party stood on the eve of Bill’s 1992 run for the White House, poised for what would have been their sixth loss in seven presidential elections.

The 1960s marked the exodus of blue-collar ethnics and Southerners from the Democratic Party. What was once the base of the FDR’s New Deal coalition headed for the exits in the aftermath of inner-city rioting, violent protests and rancorous demonstrations. White flight marked Richard Nixon’s 1972 landslide victory over George McGovern. Nixon won 61 percent of the popular vote and two-thirds of ballots casts by white voters. Not even Ronald Reagan equaled that margin. And in the South, the Democratic vote crumbled, as McGovern gleaned less than three in 10 voters there.

Read full article:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/02/03/hillary-clinton-in-2016-be-afraid-republicans.html

[Thinkingabout]

1. I like the prospects for Democrats in the next few years. We have planted our feet and ready

to march onward. We have good candidates for many positions and will need to continue to have more young folks to enter into the political world full of knowledge and ability to govern. We don't have to go the stupid route, we are better at responding to the needs of our citizens. I have been a Hillary fan for years, hope one day for Chelsea to follow her parents as President also. Democrats has always had to work hard and this is something we know how to do, walk the streets and get our voters to the polls.

[tularetom]

2. WTF is a "beer-track" voter?

Is this some snide beltway jargon for a bigot who hates blacks more than he hates women?

Or just another cheap shot at those of us who like to drink beer?

Or is it just some pundit's cute little attempt at implying that Hillary has a bigger penis than Obama?

Whatever, I wasn't very impressed with the article. Or with the daily beast in general for that matter.

[graham4anything]

3. Hillary45. She is on course to winning 450 votes.

[msongs]

4. how about running a liberal/progressive instead? nt

[Ter]

5. Then we risk losing

Would you rather risk it or play it safe and win with Clinton? A real progressive can not beat a Chris Christie. The only chance is if they run a die hard tea bagger, someone that Freepers love. Remember, Freepers by enlarge hated the choice of McCain and Romney. It's unlikely the Republicans will nominate a Rand Paul.

[Jennicut]

14. Chris Christie needs to win in the Repub primaries first.

One poll showed Repub voters preferred Rubio over Christie. He will have to sharply turn right.

[LuvLoogie]

6. How about liberals and progressives learn to persuade instead of preach.

Hillary will do more to bring in progressives down ticket than would any "true progressive." She's got the geo-political chops, the DC experience and the ability to divide and madden the GOP by her presence alone. She could further break the logjam. I don't see anyone else doing it realistically.

[Yavin4]

12. "How about liberals and progressives learn to persuade instead of preach." I don't know you.

But, I love you.

[brooklynite]

19. Name an acceptable (to you) Liberal and I'll tell you if they can win...

[antigop]

7. " +1" to the "inevitability" meme counter. nt

[BlueStater]

8. It's like 2008 all over again.

I resent her being shoved down my throat and I will be supporting someone else in the primary if she runs.

[Whisp]

9. don't worry. She is just having her surrogates do this

inevitability crap for the book sales in the next couple years.

she's not running. she's a clinton and will milk what can be milked.

[RudynJack]

10. A Daily Beast punditry article

is shoving her down your throat?

Why go to a political discussion board if discussions of politics offend you so much? Surely there's a flower-arranging site somewhere.

[BlueStater]

11. What a simplistic response.

It's not politics that offends me, smart guy. Being constantly told who the party nominee will be THREE YEARS before the fucking election by the media and people on this forum and that her nomination is "inevitable" and there's nothing anyone can do about it? Yeah, that irks me.

[Agschmid]

16. Just FYI that is not how it happens...

If I remember correctly the time you are trying to cite... Obama in 2008... well... I just made my point.

Done.

[RudynJack]

20. Smart guy?

thanks for the compliment.

My point is that people with views that differ from yours will post on blogs, discussion forums, etc. If it bothers you, it's pretty easy to not click on a thread whose title is obviously offensive to you.

We discuss politics here. If you're going to get exercised every time someone mentions Clinton as a presidential candidate, you're going to have a very difficult couple of years coming up. Have you tried macrame? Origami?

[BlueStater]

33. Why don't YOU leave, buddy?

I've been a member here since June 2005. You've only been here since October of last year.


And, yes, whenever I feel Hillary Clinton is getting shoved in my face as a presidential candidate, I'm going to protest it, whether you like it or not. This may come as a shock to you but people getting passionate about this sort of thing is hardly anything new.

[RudynJack]

44. Did I ask you to leave?

You come across as angry.

Maybe yoga would help?

[BlueStater]

47. Run out of anything remotely substantial to say?

Then this conversation is over. Buh-bye.

[RudynJack]

49. You have said absolutely nothing of substance.

I've pointed out that discussion of politics on a political discussion board should not be a cause of distress. Your substance has been limited to pointing out that you've been here longer than I have.

If you want to claim that as a victory, I'll just pat you on the head and wish you a good night.

I hear philately is fun.

[Agschmid]

51. I get your point, and agree this is a political discussion board.

Welcome to DU. And maybe he should try Bikram, the hot yoga really loosens up your tight nerves.

[BlueStater]

53. I know you are but what am I, huh?

No one is distressed, pal. Maybe I just don't like being told I should leave politics by some obnoxiously condescending guy who's only been here for a little over three months.

[RudynJack]

54. Again

your "substance" is rather limited to tenure.

I didn't tell you to leave. I suggested not clicking on threads whose titles will obviously cause you tsuris.

People are going to discuss politics here. It's rather self-evident. I see no reason to get upset when people do so.

[BlueStater]

55. Yes, and in political threads, you're clearly going to find people who share a different opinion,...

...such as mine.

You may find this surprising but that's pretty much the norm around here. Are you going to suggest they should leave politics as well?

[Beacool]

13. Well, Obama was shoved down the throats of half of the party.

If she does run, then it'll be the other half's turn.

[BlueStater]

18. Not in freakin' February of 2005, he wasn't. N/T

[Beacool]

24. What had he done by Feb. 2005 to warrant anyone touting him as the 2008 potential nominee?

Oh yeah, he had given a speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention.

[Whisp]

31. that still really bothers you, doesn't it?

that Obama is such an eloquent speaker and so well loved.

o well!!!! sorry about that!

[Agschmid]

36. No one said that. At all. n/t

[Beacool]

38. Oh, please..............

Some people love him, some people hate him. Just like with most politicians.

[Whisp]

39. all that eye rolling must really hurt!

yeh, I know the kinds of people that Hate him - that crazy teabaggish crowd and their GOP buds. Or were you thinking of others?

[Beacool]

41. You must be dripping drool by now.

I mean, with your tongue always sticking out.........

[Whisp]

43. I see someone stuck their thumb in yer eye...

one of them is closed. but at least they're not rolling.

wasn't me!!! honest!

[Beacool]

48. What is that sound?

Oh, it's just you laughing like a hyena.

Time to go to bed.

Just for you.......

[Agschmid]

25. ALOT has happened since then.

She has been a mainstay in American politics for the past 4 years, in 2005 Obama did not have that same history.

[BlueStater]

34. Don't care.

I'm not going to support her for our nominee. If she runs and wins the nomination (sigh), then I'll support her but definitely not before.

[Agschmid]

35. K.

I'll make sure she gets that nomination then.

[Agschmid]

15. I resent this...

And I am sick, and tired of it.

[BlueStater]

17. So now I'm apparently a sexist because I don't support Hillary.

Wow, you guys are REALLY doing a lot to endear people to your side. Please keep it up.

[RudynJack]

21. Perhaps

woodworking is more to your tastes?

[Beacool]

22. You must have forgotten how many were called racists for not supporting Obama.

[Agschmid]

23. +1

I don't usually go down this path but I really feel like some people can just win, and that is what is important for us to grow the democratic party.

[Beacool]

26. I don't know what will happen in 4 years.

But I'll be damned if Hillary does choose to run and the left pulls the same crap they did in 2008. I still fail to see where Obama is more progressive than Hillary. If she does run, I'll be telling them the same thing that Pelosi and others kept telling Hillary supporters in 2008: Get over it.

As it is, I don't even know why we're fighting. After 8 years of a Democrat in the WH, the next president may end up being a Republican. It's hard to keep the WH for three consecutive terms.

[Agschmid]

27. I agree wholeheartedly with your sentiment.

I also agree it is challenging to keep it for 3 terms, but I feel like now is our chance.

We'll touch base in 4 years and see where it all ended up!

[Beacool]

29. Yeah, and their solution is to try to nominate people who are so LW that they won't get elected.

The country is not as liberal as they think it is. It'll be hard enough to win the WH with a left of center candidate, even one as well known as Hillary.

[BlueStater]

40. The whole "it's hard for the same party to hold the WH for more than eight years" thing.

I feel that's just a bizarre series of coincidences in history and nothing more.

Nixon BARELY lost to Kennedy in 1960. 1976 was also a close election and had Ford not made the stupid decision to pardon Nixon, the results may have been very different. Gore technically did win the election and ended up being fucked over by the Supreme Court. The odds of the Democrats winning again are not as difficult as you might think.

[Beacool]

42. It'll depend on how things are by 2016.

If the economy has improved and people feel that their lives are getting better, then a Democrat will have a chance of winning. If the economy continues to contract and unemployment remains high, people may want to give the other party a chance. It was clear in 2008 that, after Bush's wars and the economic collapse, a Democrat would be the winner.

[TroyD]

46. The Republicans won the White House 3 times in a row between 1980-1992

2 Terms of Reagan, followed by 1 with Bush I. And Bush I was favored to win again before Perot and Clinton entered the picture.

With the changing demographics and more favorable electoral map (remember Republicans have not won over 300 EV since 1988), it is possible for the Dems to win in 2016 if a strong candidate like Hillary runs.

But I don't know whether she will yet, so other candidates should be prepared to step in if she doesn't.

[Beacool]

50. I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens in the interim.

Four years is a lifetime in politics.

[BlueStater]

37. No, I haven't.

That was wrong too and I got in a lot of fights with Obama supporters about that during the 2008 primaries. But since you guys actually have experience being singled out like that, you shouldn't do it to other people. Two wrongs don't make a right, ya know?

[Whisp]

32. I was told that I was a Traitor To All Women! because I supported Obama in the primaries.

so there, I win.

[CheapShotArtist]

28. +1

I get that she did a great job as SOS and is popular among most of the party, but this is getting ridiculous to be talking about 2016 elections when we're fresh out of the 2012 elections. Hillary said over and over again that she won't run in 2016, anyway, but nobody ever wants to take "no" for an answer.

[Agschmid]

30. It's not really *that* ridiculous... we do it every 4 years...

And people have a habit of saying something then doing something completely different (hopefully)!.

[TroyD]

45. I hope Hillary runs in 2016, but as of now I believe her when she says she has no plans

I know many people are positive that she's already decided that she will run, but I believe she wants to take a break, get rested up and get a clean bill of health before deciding what to do next.

I am not going to get my hopes up for 2016 until I hear an actual announcement from Hillary herself.

[patrice]

52. Any 2016 candidate advocacy that's already out of the gate surely must realize that a lot of

attitude toward 2016 candidates is going to be defined in 2014.