ZOGBY: The Biden Watch Begins

[DonViejo]

Well, someone had a good week. Vice-President Biden has started talking about Iowa and New Hampshire and now others are buzzing about him and 2016. During the debacle that has been referred to as the fiscal cliff, Biden is the only name that has transcended the muck. President Barack Obama brought in the person, it seems, who could be an adult, schmooze the way Senators are supposed to, and ultimately walk away with some success. Things were at an impasse and Biden was called heroic by no less a figure than the President himself. Biden, according to the legend being spun, saved America.

So what are Biden's chances for the nomination in 2016? Up until this same week, the runaway frontrunner was Hillary Clinton. She has had a great run as Secretary of State, is wildly popular - the most admired woman in the world - and (let's admit what we already know deep in our hearts), "it's her turn".

But Hillary has two problems that converged at the same time that Biden is soaring: she needs to answers about the murders of four Americans (including the U.S. Ambassador) in Libya and now her health. Neither may prove serious problems in the long run, but they are questions that will dog her for a while. More significantly, she now has serious competition.

What are his real chances? For this pollster: good to very good. Let's look at his strengths. First is his experience, his resume. Elected to the Senate in 1972, served six terms and has chaired several major committees including Foreign Affairs and Judiciary. Indeed, it was this very quality that made him the perfect choice to be Obama's running mate in 2008. No one can doubt that Joe Biden is prepared to be President.

Second, there is none of the usual elitism associated with big liberal Democrats. Joe from Scranton seems never far from his working class roots and has shown an ability to mix with the guys on the campaign trail. When he referred to the passage of the Affordable Healthcare Act as a "BFD" to the President at the White House ceremony, he demonstrated the degree to which the F-word has become merely a prefix to millions of us.

He is an eloquent speaker and can win a debate. In 2008, while the attention in the Democratic debates was focused on Obama and Clinton, it was Biden who seemed the most prepared. While he was a tad supercilious (perhaps, at times, obnoxious) in his debate with GOP Vice-Presidential nominee Paul Ryan, he clearly scored a victory among both pundits and the public - especially coming on the heels of the President's botched first debate.

He has some problems, too. He will be 73 if he runs in 2016. Ronald Reagan was 73 when he ran for re-election in 1984 and we know that issues about his health that were raised then were possibly very relevant. Bob Dole was 73 in 1996 and appeared tanned and trim, but age was an issue. In 2008, John McCain was 73 and his age was hardly a factor. In 2016, one-third of Baby Boomers will be 65 or older, looking forward to mountain climbing and skydiving at 73.

Biden also talks too much. Very much. But so did Teddy Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson.

There will be other issues as well - notably, his punishing treatment of Anita Hill during hearings on Clarence Thomas' nomination to the Supreme Court and his plagiarized campaign speech when he was forced to drop out of the 1988 campaign - and they will be aired. Being a sitting Vice President also means being at the mercy of his boss' reputation, and lots can happen over the course of four years. But let's just call this a week that may have changed the dynamics a bit.

Other News Release available at - http://www.jzanalytics.com

[patrice]

1. Damn it! No!!

I like the guy, but HE'S TOO OLD and not Left enough.

[still_one]

2. It is a long way off, however, zogby has not been accurate for quite some time /nt

[patrice]

3. I should be more patient with the process. Feel like I already am almost too patient as it is.

[still_one]

5. What I would like to see the Congress do, besides incentives for job creation, is to insure that

people do not lose their right to vote.

The republicans went out of their way to try and disenfranchise Democratic voters, and luckily we were on top of it, and the courts ruled in our favor. However, we should not wait for two years to make sure this does not happen again.

It won't matter if it is Joe or Hillary or someone else, if we cannot insure our votes count

Just my two cents

[Drunken Irishman]

11. He's not too old.

Biden wears his age well. He looks younger than someone who will be 73 when elected president in four years. He's energetic, charismatic and I think a formidable opponent.

[MADem]

35. He's had medical issues, serious ones, requiring brain surgery to clip aneurysms.

That and his age work against him.

Maybe he'd like to try his hand as SECSTATE in the next administration?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

19. And neither is Hillary. Her views are no "left enough".

[patrice]

22. Hey! I'm not expecting much here! Can we just have a center< of center< of Left of center here??

Something that would include only another 25-45 degrees of the arc of political demographics??

I mean, for the sake of pie???? We need a Democrat who definitely leans LEFT and if we can kick Republican, no one has to expect that a candidate with Leftie leanings is going to operate on zero-sum false dichotomies.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. LMAO!! I agree, but it's hard to find a person like this who can get through the nominating process.

Hey, I'm all for it. I'm a Biden fan, though, so I'm a bit biased in that regard.

[patrice]

26. Well hell! Get Joe to see the light on the more creative aspects of Leftie economics, then.

For a lot of us it all begins with Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations and how Smith says EVERYTHING economic begins with work, a.k.a. LABOR. Work is what he calls Real Value and it seems pretty obvious to at least some of us that what happened, what went wrong is that we have an economy that is NOT based upon Real Value. "Our" economy is in whole, or at least in significant part, controlled by Arbitrary Value that is owned and operated by a private entity, The Federal Reserve. Real Value, concrete work, is held hostage by completely fungible, privately engineered, encoded 0s and 1s, shuffled back and forth by means of proprietary software, running in privately owned computers (behind locked doors into "hidden" rooms behind rooms, behind rooms that are also privately owned by foreign financial powers).

Ask Joe about why, the people of the USA being the single largest holder of our own debt, WHY don't we set the rate of interest on our own bonds? Even Ron Reagan was known to observe how deficit cap "discussions" affect bond markets, but I suppose that's an unavoidable point for anyone who recognizes that we first legislate policy, then we vote again on appropriations, and NOW, since 2010, AFTER all of the voting is done, we're returning to what "we" said "we" already "decided" and fight over whether we're actually going to finance it or not. How many opportunities to corporate-owned Congress critters and lobbyists WANT to fuck with the relationships between publicly funded debt and WALL STREET through the Federal Reserve, which sets the interest rates on CREDIT (and let's admit that, except for actual Real Value/Work, it's ALL CREDIT at this point) for both public and private economic policies.

My solution, and need I say, this is a LEFTIE idea: Respect LABOR for what it most authentically is, consider co-operative, or at least profit sharing, exchanges of Real Value/work for Real Value/work and take a look at what that does for some government policy balance sheets.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

28. I couldn't agree with you more. And my main criticism of this administration--Biden included--is

that they fail to redefine the terms of the debate. Democrats, in general, have allowed the Republicans to move the goal posts; to move the argument to the right. Now the political middle is really a rightwing policy position. And now you have Democrats screaming about deficit cutting and supporting--even enthusiastically promoting--supply-side rhetoric. Both Biden and Obama do it, but Obama has an excuse: he's a neophyte when it comes to politics (I mean at the federal level, not in IL). Biden should know better. He's been around for far too long not to. Though he is one of the least wealthy people serving in politics today, he comes from a corporate state: Delaware. I used to jokingly refer to him as "Mr. MBNA". Biden has done some great things throughout his career, but he and the rest of the Democratic Party need to stop being afraid to embrace classic Smith-sonian economics. Yes, I understand that the Corporate Media propagates the narrative set by the political right. And yes, it is difficult to penetrate that wall, but the Democrats should take the blame, too, for tragically surrendering this issue to the right. Tom Frank's "What's the Matter with White People" and "The Wrecking Crew," along with Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine" and Howard Zinn's "A People's History of the U.S.," ought to be required reading for all.

I hear what you're saying, loud and clear!

[patrice]

29. It's still middling early. Some NEW demographics need to put themselves together, agree on what they

are doing and DO what it takes to get to "the table" and then be prepared to react constructively, and that does include both positive and negative construction, to whatever happens at the table.

PO is a CENTRIST; his base is whoever CAN get to "the table". If we can do that, he MUST deal with us.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

31. I think he's really a liberal; at least, he was when he was IL. I think he has become too much

of a senator. Senators make deals. They compromise. To his detriment--and ours--he is a pragmatist. I don't hate him for it, but it is frustrating sometimes.

[Jennicut]

30. Biden pushed Obama to the left on certain things, actually.

I do agree about the age part, though he is a very young 70.

[Mojorabbit]

51. I agree. It is too grueling a job for 73.

I am younger that that and could not do it.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

4. A Biden vs. Christie campaign would certainly be entertaining

the debates would be must-watch TV

[Sunlei]

8. would be very entertaining TV today :)

However, when Republicans were searching for a VP choice this very recent election they did not want Christie at all. Romney didn't even team with him for campaign trial runs. They just used Christie for some primary and 'news' time filler because he was popular with their votes.

Now with Christies speak out at them like he did over their treatment of American people in the disaster...I think Christie is dead to the current republican party.

[bigdarryl]

20. A fat man as President I don't think so

[TeamPooka]

34. Jury results on your comment

I was Juror #4

A fat man as President I don't think so
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=273077

REASON FOR ALERT:

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate. (See <a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=aboutus#communitystandards" target="_blank">Community Standards</a>.)

ALERTER'S COMMENTS:

What is this idiot's obsession with overweight people.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Tue Jan 8, 2013, 01:57 AM, and the Jury voted 3-3 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT and said: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT and said: prejudice is evident.
If we replaced the word "fat" with "black", "Asian" or "gay" it would be universally unacceptable, right?
I hope the rest of the jury agrees that discriminatory hate speech not be allowed at DU against heavy people or anyone else.

Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT and said: No explanation given

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[Myrina]

43. Ever hear of a President with the last name of Taft?

[mythology]

47. Taft was elected a long time before television

Like it or not, politics are a visual game these days.

[Confusious]

50. Taft got stuck in a tub

How do you think he would fare in today's media?

He would have been savaged for however long he remained in office. Unbelievably ugly.

Sad, but true.

[SteveG]

46. They would call them the Memorial Bridge debates

or the Lewes-Cape May debates. Those are the two locations that link DE and NJ.

[Sunlei]

6. Democrats are fortunate to have many excellent possible Presidents

There is much power, respect and love in the good guy side

[NYC Liberal]

13. Isn't that the truth? We have so many really good potential candidates (and presidents).

Hillary
Biden
Castro
Warren
Patrick
O'Malley
Schweitzer
Sherrod Brown

Who does the GOP have? Jeb, Mitch Daniels, Newt, Jindal, Rubio? A bunch of clowns. Most likely many of the same clowns who ran in 2012.

[WI_DEM]

21. Castro is the Mayor of San Antonio and isn't ready to run for president

he should try governor or Senator. Warren was just elected and should serve a term in the senate. The others are good.

[libdem4life]

32. Agree...Castro for the next cycle...think it's his to lose. Great family, too.

[aaaaaa5a]

7. If Hillary can't run or if she falls... I would have no problem supporting Biden. nt

[jimmy the one]

9. add zogby to rightwing spindoctoring

zogby, the spindoctor: There will be other issues as well - notably, his {joe bidens} punishing treatment of Anita Hill during hearings on Clarence Thomas' nomination to the Supreme Court and his plagiarized campaign speech when he was forced to drop out of the 1988 campaign

Zogby misleads, exaggerates the facts to rightwing spin;

Joe Biden voted AGAINST clarence thomas approval to supreme court justice (thus supporting anita hill in the sense), when anita hill made her claims about thomas' lewd behavior towards her (which were true, she passed a couple lie detector tests he refused them iirc).
Biden only enforced some sanctions about what could be presented as evidence against clarence thomas, obviously to prevent later counter claims from thomas's lawyers. There was no punishing treatment towards anita hill that I am aware of, just precautionary measures from joe.

Joe Biden's 'plagiarism' against british member of parliament neil kinnock was trumped up, trivial. Biden yes, used in a speech some of Kinnock's remarks, but had PREVIOUSLY in early speeches acknowledged they were from Kinnock, so it was trumped up crap. Kinnock even later said he was 'flattered' that biden had quoted him. Kinnock held no grudge.

So, add john zogby to the declining list of rightwing pigs.

[allrevvedup]

16. hey Jimmy thanks for that!

Welcome and please stick around, we can use you!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

24. Adding to this: Joe Biden is the author of the Violence Against Women Act. Zogby is full of shit!

[Drunken Irishman]

10. If Hillary passes, it's Bidens job to lose and I'll support him 100%.

Is he old? Eh. Biden wears his age well (unlike McCain). I think he'd make a potential pledge to serve only one term (I suspect Hillary would do the same) and run with a younger VP.

Biden-O'Malley?

[MADem]

36. No one wants a "one term pledge" president. I think that's a horrible idea.

The best stuff happens in the 2nd term, when the "legacy building" happens.

[Drunken Irishman]

37. The best stuff doesn't happen in the 2nd term...

That's mostly just window dressing. FDR, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and Bush all struggled in their 2nd terms advancing anything of substance.

[MADem]

39. Nixon is a poor example--he resigned in his 2nd term to escape impeachment. He HAD no real 2nd term

because Ford, unelected and selected, had to caretake it for him.

FDR was in mid-stream when his 2nd term came around. He wasn't "wrapping it up" because there were no term limits. He was elected 2x after his second term, so he isn't a good example, either--though even at that, you can find plenty of accomplishments for FDR (minimum wage, for example--that's not nuthin') in his 2nd term if you just have a look.

Clinton was in the throes of an impeachment process that hamstrung him badly. Despite that, he played a key role in halting ethnic cleansing--that's an accomplishment that I think really matters. A Republican would have let 'em all die because they had no oil.

Reagan was mired in Iran-Contra, but notwithstanding that, he "accomplished" plenty--he was perhaps the most productive of all your examples, even if one doesn't like the character of all of his "accomplishments." He "cracked down on illegal immigrants," he bombed Libya, he "ended the Cold War" and signed the INF treaty--all in his 2nd term.

The 2nd term (post term limits) offers presidents opportunities to do what they really want to do, and say what they really mean, without having to sweat a reelection. It is a "legacy opportunity."

POTUS hasn't even taken the oath yet--he'll have four years to make a mark. I think he won't waste the time.

[Drunken Irishman]

42. Okay...

Maybe you have a point...but then why haven't any of the last few reelected presidents done anything remotely on the level as their first? You can excuse it by scandal - but it still counts. I'm sorry, but we haven't seen one extremely productive second term out of any president in modern history. So, this idea that it's their time to get things done is an illusion. You even admit it, if not only indirectly, in your post.

Just look at Obama - the #1 accomplishment of his presidency, even if he somehow gets immigration and gun reform, will be the healthcare reform. When did that happen?

You know why the good stuff happens in the first term? Because a president doesn't plan on the off chance he'll be there for eight years. If Obama had done that, if Obama bought your line of reasoning, he would've pushed off healthcare reform until his second term. He didn't. There is a reason why.

[MADem]

44. Because they're REPUBLICANS!

Republicans aren't going to do anything FOR us--but when it comes to advancing their agendas, they did very well. Bush2 and Reagan weren't sleeping under a bush in the garden during their 2nd terms, not in the slightest. They got stuff done that their crew thought was just swell.

Look at the Presidents we've had in the last half century and change--JFK had no second term, he was shot; LBJ had no 2nd term, he Sherman'd out; Nixon resigned, Carter had no second term, Reagan got some shit done--not always nice, but he cemented his legacy; Bush 1 had no 2nd term, Clinton got a few things done despite being dogged, dissed and impeached (completing the Cheney-initiated military drawdown; growing the economy and leaving us with a surplus was a nice touch) and Bush 2 certainly has left us with a "legacy" though it's not one many would prefer (Roberts and Alito on the Supreme Court, e.g., the Katrina disaster--which could have been a postively defining moment, had he done it right, for how America approaches relief efforts--happened; and Bush successfully fucked with the Constitution by power-grabbing and acting unilaterally in a number of instances vis-a-vis the conflict in Afghanistan and the War on Terra). Not all of these are "positives" from the perspective of those of us on the left, but where you stand depends on where you sit. His "just a goddamned piece of paper" Constitutional follies were met with glee by his allies, so it's not like he didn't get some shit done--it was simply stuff that we didn't like at all.

The "stuff left undone" happens in the 2nd term. Obama has plenty of "stuff left undone" to keep him busy.

[Drunken Irishman]

45. There is stuff left undone...but the bulk of Obama's legacy has been created.

And he'll have more to his name in the first four years than the next.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

12. Biden would have a good chance if Hillary doesn't stand

[JDPriestly]

14. Joe Biden is great, but 73?????

That would make him 81 in 8 years. No way. Supreme Court justices do it because they have young law clerks to do the work and the justices stay out of the limelight. Some of them are probably fine, but others . . . .

We need someone younger. Someone the age Obama was in 2008.

I'm older myself. I know what it is like. I'm sorry. There are lots of jobs older people can do, but president of the US is not one of them. It is simply too stressful and too demanding. It requires a quickness of spirit and an ability to recall and respond without hesitation.

We need another Obama.

[demwing]

27. You're adding years

Biden was born in 1942. He'll be 73 during the 2016 campaign, turns 74 in December of that year.

The guy has earned his chance, and then some.

[MADem]

40. No--he's saying he'll be 81 when he finishes, not when he starts. nt

[demwing]

41. Thanks, re-read, and you're correct

[treestar]

38. Depends on what kind of life you've lived

Biden's been involved and gotten around. That makes a person stay alert.

[JDPriestly]

48. The problem is having enough energy to do what a president have to do.

The presidency has become a series of exhausting days. I hate to be ageist, but I am just a bit younger than Biden and I don't think a person in our age group should be president. No matter how healthy or strong you are, things start to go wrong. Our genetic fate begins to catch up with us.

[marlakay]

55. I agree

I work out, hike, and try to keep fit and eat heathy. And even doing that at 56 1/2 I get tired easier. There is a ton of stress being president, you can see that on Obama and he is young.

[treestar]

56. Depends on the individual

People vary greatly. Physically the job is not so demanding and offers plenty of help. It's a state of mind. McBoob was too old because he did not embrace modern technology, not due to his chronological age.

[allrevvedup]

15. Morbid title, swell idea.

We could do worse. I just hope Joe doesn't let this go to his head as he suffers from chronic LHP (low humility pressure) and this might start a gaffe attack. But I'm glad he's having a good year!

[whistler162]

17. So Zogby is just

Biden its time .


http://www.allmusicals.com/lyrics/crazyforyou/bidinmytime.htm

[davidpdx]

18. I fundamentally disagree with the "it's my turn" argument

That being said I'll support whomever the nominee in the GE is. I'm more concerned with what needs to be done in the next two years which is to support Obama's agenda and find and support candidates for the mid-term election in 2014. It would be nice to have both the House and Senate for his last two years.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

25. But that's how the Corporate Media and many Democrats, here and otherwise, are behaving...

....like it's Hillary's turn to be president. We're not Republicans. This is not how Democrats are supposed to behave. We have a nominating process and that process is democratic. We don't do things like the Republicans.

I totally agree with you, especially the part where we need to concentrate on the upcoming two years. There's still much work to be done. And if the Democrats lose the Senate in 2014, that's a much bigger fish to fry than who we'll run in 2016.

[Hippo_Tron]

53. The rule with Republicans seems to be that you have to run at least once and lose in the primary....

Before you get the nomination. Ronald Reagan, George HW Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney all did. Idiot son of course had the nomination handed to him on the first try, just like everything else in his life.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

54. Yes. And my point is, we're not like Republicans, so we need to stop acting like them. In 2008,

Hillary was coronated as the leader of the party by the media and most in the Democratic Party elite. This sense of entitlement was her undoing. Let's not make the same mistake again. If she is the nominee, I will work hard for her, just as I have for other Democratic nominees.

[Hippo_Tron]

52. Don't worry, it was Hillary's "turn" last time too

Republicans are big on "turns" and seniority when it comes to picking a nominee. Democrats have a tendency to let Iowa and New Hampshire catapult someone who isn't leading nationally into a stronger position before they decide who to pick.

[libdem4life]

33. I think Joe would be great..the point that the Boomers have reached Social Security age is important

The "Don't trust anyone over 30" generation ... now applies to our grandchildren. We pushed the envelope at most every juncture and hopefully this one will be another challenge of the Status Quo. Also Jill Biden...and the kids they raised...class acts all.

[DFW]

49. Zogby's advertising budget a little light these days?

No one paying enough attention to him, so he feels a need to make stuff up? What is this, a new medical condition called the Dick Morris Syndrome?

Joe Biden will not be seeking the White House in 2016, and, for that matter I'd wager a bet that Hillary will pass, too.

Howard Dean told me in Feb. 2009 that he'd prefer to see 45 to 50 year olds seeking the Presidency so as to infuse the office with some youthful energy and dynamism (wistfully noting that he had just taken himself out of any future runs).

I wouldn't make that an ironclad rule, but he has a point: no one knows how a new president will govern. Experience can be a boon or a burden.

[Larrymoe Curlyshemp]

57. No

It's still Hilary's if she wants it.