Holy mackeral! Pollster Finds Obama is Overwhelming Favorite

[babylonsister]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/04/03/pollster_finds_obama_is_overwhelming_favorite.html

Pollster Finds Obama is Overwhelming Favorite

An Ipsos forecasting model finds that if President Obama's approval rating stays at 47%, there is an 85% chance he wins reelection, Paul Bedard reports.

Should Obama's approval rise to 50% or better, he stands a 99% chance of winning.

Said pollster Clifford Young: "Obama is the odds-on favorite barring some unforeseen random event. As such, we really should not be asking who will win the presidency but instead who will hold the House and Senate and will Obama be able to govern?"

[Proud Liberal Dem]

1. This election is plenty winnable

provided that we get our people out to the polls (and they can actually cast a vote for him). I have sincere doubts that people will want to "take a chance" on Mitt Romney- not even some Republicans are willing to after all. Like the article, I think that the second question, however, is of profound importance. After all, retaining President Obama with a VERY hostile Republican Congress is going to ensure that very little gets done during a second Obama Presidency. The right-wing, smarting from yet another loss to the Kenyan Socialist gun grabber, will be completely unhinged and demand no less than his immediate impeachment from office- and, sadly, I expect that the Republicans will do everything in their power to make a second Obama Presidency a thoroughly miserable affair. Hopefully, people will choose better, however, given everything that has gone on during the past 3+ years.

[LetTimmySmoke]

9. The election is winnable not won.

There can still be things like manufactured crises or Bain Capital buying out Diebold.

[aquart]

2. Shhhhhhh.

Don't want a single person thinking it's safe to stay home. IT AIN'T SAFE TO STAY HOME.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

4. +1

We don't want to become complacent. I doubt that it will be seriously close, particularly after the debates, but we don't want to pull a Bart Simpson losing to Martin Prince.

[gateley]

6. We can't afford to dismiss the "anybody but Obama" voters who will be fueled

by their hate, fear and racism (very powerful fuel!). Good advice.

[Vincardog]

3. There is a very real chance that the GOP could steal 2012 as they did in 2000

[gateley]

7. And with all the new voting id requirements in place -- might be a lot easier than

we can imagine.

[Gman]

15. They stole Ohio and the election in 04

The closer an election, the more likely the chance of it being stolen from us.

[lame54]

5. 99%...

I think they are forgetting about diebold and the Koch Bros money

[zbdent]

8. "Should Obama's approval rise to 50% or better" ...

yeah, right ... with today's "liberally-biased media"?

The "lbm" has been happy to cover the "infighting" ... once they've been given the OK, it will be full-on attack mode on Obama ...

You know, the controversial Republican attack ads which either never aired or only aired once ... and were played hundreds of times on the "news" portions of the "LBM", giving them far more coverage than they would have gotten if the Repug paid for the advertising ...

[movonne]

10. This is great but if we don't take the house ans senate it

will be a repeat of the last four years...

[DFW]

11. WInning the election will be easy. Winning the vote-counting, less so.

Like Bush's buddy said on election day, 2004: "It's all over but the counting, and we'll take care of the counting."

Obama will have a majority of the votes in his favor.

His Republican opponent will have criminal voter disenfranchisement, Republican-programmed vote counting machines, paid thugs to harass voters in Democratic wards, robo-call machines to mislead Democratic voters about when and where they can vote, and Fox Noise blaring 24/7 up to the election with a billion dollars' worth of free advertising, telling any lie they can think of about Obama, and in favor of the Republican candidate.

This is not England. This is not Canada. Just having received more votes than your opponent is no longer a sure-fire way to win an election in our country. The Republicans have seen how it worked in Zimbabwe and Iran, and they see Mugabe and AhmadiNejad still in power. they remember what worked in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2010. Nothing succeeds like success, after all.

[progressoid]

12. The House and Senate should be our main concern

I doubt the President will lose. Our vulnerabilities in Congress are many and the DNC needs to concentrate on those races.

[DCBob]

13. Its the "unforeseen random event" that Im worried about.

The GOPers are clearly capable of creating such events.

[The Stranger]

14. Just stop it.

This kind of shit makes me nervous.

[southernyankeebelle]

16. Am sure the republicans don't give a real damn about the president slot. They want both

houses. Because that is where the most damage can be done. People need to vote democrat even in the states. Republicans have gone crazy. They just aren't normal.

[LynneSin]

17. We need to ignore that poll and work this election like we're 2 points behind

Yes this is our election to lose. If we get too cocky ahead of time and slack off we could find ourselves with a President Romney.

other than that this is really great news. But how can the GOP ever think of getting close to 50% if they ignore women, minorities and GLBT?

[fujiyama]

18. The election is far from won

Rising gas prices, potential foreign conflicts and instability, unlimited $ in the form of unhinged Super PACs, and a general pessimism make this election a challenge. Obama is a great campaigner and has a good organization behind him. It also doesn't hurt that republicans are basically blowing their foot off by turning off almost every group other than white males (and for whatever reason it's not just wealthy white males).

It will be very important to get the word out on what the republicans' ultimate goals are - at least for moderates and those frustrated with how things are going but still interested in electing people with potential solutions. The republicans have proven they have no interest in working with Obama on anything. They don't want to accomplish anything and their ideas are the same re-hashed garbage they've had going on for years - that does nothing to make people's lives better or solve the debt crisis.

[Turbineguy]

19. Then the GOP will

overwhelmingly cheat.

[ffr]

20. Senate & House too.

Let's make it a Democratic sweep. Clean house!

[321Morrow]

21. Go to Intrade and you will see Obama is the leader

and favorite for the general election.

www.intrade.com

Intrade is far more accurate than most polls.

[DonCoquixote]

22. Now that Mitt has the GOP sewn up

Out will come the Citizens united billionaires that frankly, do not have to even care what mitt wants. Beware, this fight is not even begun.

[crazylikafox]

23. Unfortunately, I think you're right