Trump beat Clinton in counties where more jobs are at risk because of technology or globalization

[portlander23]

Trump Was Stronger Where The Economy Is Weaker
Jed Kolko
FiveThirtyEight

In the months leading up to Tuesday’s vote, experts debated how much Trump’s support was driven by economic anxiety or by racism, xenophobia or other factors. These reasons are not mutually exclusive, of course, and the debate will continue long into Trump’s presidency. But county-level voting results suggest that economic issues underpinned at least some of Trump’s support.

Economic anxiety is about the future, not just the present. Trump beat Clinton in counties where more jobs are at risk because of technology or globalization. Specifically, counties with the most “routine” jobs — those in manufacturing, sales, clerical work and related occupations that are easier to automate or send offshore — were far more likely to vote for Trump.

Instead, to understand what drove Trump’s victory, we can look at how Trump’s margin against Clinton in 2016 compared with Romney’s against President Obama in 2012. Sure enough, the swing toward Trump was much stronger in counties with a higher share of routine jobs; the swing toward Trump was also stronger where unemployment was higher, job growth was slower and earnings were lower.

Still, it is clear that the places that voted for Trump are under greater economic stress, and the places that swung most toward Trump are those where jobs are most under threat. Importantly, Trump’s appeal was strongest in places where people are most concerned about what the future will mean for their jobs, even if those aren’t the places where economic conditions are worst today.

[orwell]

1. Boy are these people in for a rude surprise...

...the economic anxiety is just beginning.

[LisaL]

2. And I hope these people aren't holding their breath waiting for those jobs to come back.

[SidDithers]

3. ...

Sid

[bettyellen]

4. So it's was about the anxieties of people making 60k right now? Fears stoked by FOX being legitimiz

Here is pretty funny.

[realmirage]

5. IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID - remember that phrase we used to love?

Too many Democrats are focused on their disappointment and anger rather than trying to learn why we lost. Dear God if our strategy is to say fuck you to the people that just voted against us, than we can basically add to the DNC wiki page that our date of death was 2016