We are all providing reasons, data, trying to explain the outcome - BUT

[NRaleighLiberal]

IF this election was screwed with, then ALL BETS ARE OFF. It puts things into a completely whole other realm - a very dark one, and one that would be difficult for many to digest - and many politicians and the media won't want to go there either.

So given that - given that the the outcome of this election DOES NOT MAKE SENSE - because every poll was off, to the point that even the many of right wing mouths on the teevee didn't see this coming.

Given that - and I am sure many of you know I was an early Bernie supporter that actually departed DU for a long time because of the atmosphere here -

I think Hillary ran a fine campaign.
I think the polling was probably fine.
I think Hillary's messaging and ads were fine.
I think the Dem ground game was fine.

All of this data we are seeing - the invisible Trump vote, the angry white male vote - I call bullshit on all of this - because the outcome does not fit the lead up - at all.

The media to me is the main body to blame for playing the false equivalence game - and they were unforgivable and totally chicken shit in this election.

BUT......something stinks to high heaven. I am watching the newspapers, media - many people here with good intent - tripping over themselves trying to fit the outcome to logic.

But when something makes no sense - logic can't work. My view is that courage is needed to confront what seems to have happened - and to my mind, this election outcome is not valid.

[uppityperson]

1. Hey you, plus 1000

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. dare I say it's nice to be back and ranting away!

[uppityperson]

3. Plus plus plus plus

The plus sign doesn't work.

Rant away, you are not alone.

[SunSeeker]

23. Oh good, I thought it was just me. Plus 1.

[greatauntoftriplets]

74. Yes.

Always figured you would eventually.

[barbtries]

79. great to have you back

i want a meetup

[Sunny05]

4. Absolutely.

I hope the party's internal blaming stops fir all the reasons you just named. I mean, learning from experiences is fine. Trying to improve is fine. But a lot was just fine ... except for this the things you named here.

[DFW]

5. Three out of the last five elections

2000 was more than suspect. 2004 in Ohio was blatant fraud. This time, it was done in little chips here and there--not in one chunk like a great white shark biting off your lower torso, but a like couple of dozen piranhas biting our national flesh away in a matter of seconds.

[NRaleighLiberal]

6. Yup. This is really, really bad. Who will step up and have the courage to blow it open, one wonders

[DFW]

7. The same people who blew open 2000 and 2004

i.e. nobody

[Nay]

11. Exactly. No one has the guts. Not that they would be believed anyway. nt

[ucrdem]

15. There were a lot of people who spoke out courageously in 2000 and 2004.

Some of them are no longer with us, others are still trying to get their story out. How soon we forget eh?

[Laurian]

8. When I went to bed on election night, I kept thinking that somehow the

election had been compromised and I really half expected a revelation the next day. Surely someone knows.

[longship]

9. Well, what are folks going to do about it? Start a revolution?

All this talk about rigged and stolen elections sounds an awful lot like what insane Drumpf was trumpeting in the last weeks of his campaign. "The election is rigged!"

Now that we lost, I see that many here have taken up the same idiotic mantra. If we lose, it must have been rigged!

That's the fucking bullshit of a loser!

We lost because of many complex interactions, almost none of them because of cheating, which most of us spent a lot of energy ridiculing Drumpf for when he claimed the same.

We lost in a fair election. Fair enough except that it was close. But being close is not evidence that it was rigged, or stolen. It just means that it was close.

Yes, there was voter suppression. Voter ID, etc. We need to address that. But to do that we have to elect those down ballot Democratic candidates. We lost ground in the state legislatures this year. Shame on us all.

[NRaleighLiberal]

10. We can agree to disagree on this one.

[longship]

12. The only thing I would ask. What are you going to do about it?

Compare that to what happened in 2000.

In the USA, we have centuries of history of turning over power peacefully when a new president is elected.

So. What do you suggest we all do?

What Drumpf inferred when he claimed for weeks that the election would be rigged?

Note: that there are no, none, zero Democratic leaders making the claims being made here. NONE!

Why would that be? Hint: It is not because they are in on the grand conspiracy.

Please. This is getting tiresome. It did not work for Drumpf when he claimed the election was rigged before it happened. Why do people think it would work now for Hillary Clinton?

Drumpf will be POTUS 45. Gawd help us all.

We've got a lot of work to do, none of which is attempting to reverse an election. As any rational person would inform, that is not possible at this point.

Full stop on that argument. We need to stop President Drumpf now, not president-elect Drumpf. It is too late to stop the latter.

And no. Signing a silly petition isn't going to reverse a national election.

[NRaleighLiberal]

14. I think that we are in uncharted territory this time. The NSA itself is making noise

that something is fishy. I am not a CT type. But...this seems very different to me.

As for what I am going to do? I am going to try to work through my anger. That is the first thing I need to do.

[longship]

16. First, take a deep breath and acknowledge that the election was not "stolen".

Once one has shed that conspiracy one should acknowledge that close national elections in the USA are just plain fucked up, nobody's fault.

Then, one has to admit that the consequences of any such close election could be profound. But that in no way means that the blame should be put on nefarious, secret elements. Just maybe we are the ones who are fucked up.

That's it. The system works fine. People are the ones who fuck it all up.

So relax. As long as you aren't fucked up, you'll be okay.

Oh! And don't forget to fight that ego-bloated, fascist, racist, xenophobic, sexist, idiotic Drumpf every step of the way. That's what I intend to do.

My best to you, my friend.

[NRaleighLiberal]

17. Thanks - I've got tomatoes to grow, more books to write,

dogs to walk, a wonderful wife to cook nice dinners for - things suck...and yet life is good. Odd, this thing called life - and we people to do our best to make it as complicated as possible!

[longship]

18. Food and friendship is always a good antidote.

Especially when combined with suitable lubricants.


Sköl!

[elehhhhna]

34. Exit polls vs. votes counted say you're wrong.

[longship]

49. Well, what's to do about it if you are right?

There is no practical process to change a presidential election.

How do you get Hillary onto the steps of the US Capital Building on Jan 20 to take that oath?

That's right. You don't have any way to do such a thing short of utter mayhem.

[pnwmom]

22. That's a pretty condescending post in view of the fact

that Princeton University computer scientists demonstrated how quick and easy it is to hack the type of machine used in PA and in some other swing states -- without leaving any trace.

Without any way to audit results, why should we trust them? Every state should either use paper ballots, or produce a paper trail.

[yallerdawg]

35. "Director of National Intelligence James Clapper Resigns"

Today.

Says he's glad to be getting the hell out!

What does he know - and when did he know it?

[cilla4progress]

53. Exactly!

And republican senator Lindsay graham! I called Graham and my senator and congressman supporting an investigation into hacking of the election. We need to put our heads together to figure out how to keep this moving. As Gary Beck suggests in another thread, find someone famous with credibility to be the spokesperson Megyn Kelly? I think of her because of the interview she did with Anderson Cooper exposing Trump 's stalking and threatening of her throughout the campaign. Worth an email to her? Also Glenn Beck (I know...), Dan Rather, Robert Reich.

[Beartracks]

54. "It did not work for Drumpf when he claimed the election was rigged"

Some might argue that it, indeed, did work: it perhaps is what got his fans to the polls.

===============

[longship]

57. Well, I'll give you that one.

But wait a minute...

I thought that the argument was that Hillary really won, but it was rigged somehow!!!

I guess it is like all the rest of the presidential elections. It's a messy business when it's close, which allows people to make all sorts of crazy claims.

In the five times in history when the popular vote did not align with the electoral vote, the electoral vote won. That's because that's what the US Constitution says.

Don't like it? Change the US Constitution. And good luck with that. I'd be with you, but it takes 3/4 of the state legislatures to do that and I think the GOP has about that proportion of them, actually 70%.

My best to you.

[yallerdawg]

13. The disparity between what people said...

and the results of what people "did" is really out of whack.

How do you verify your vote was counted when the counting is done? What gives you any assurance those counts match the cast ballots?

Usually, it comes from polling and past trends and histories.

When we are told by the same people who gave us 65%-99% chance of Hillary winning, based on poll after poll, now telling us, "Oh, here's what happened" - what's that old adage? - "Fool me once..."

We have to fight to fix this as "if" it happened - if Republicans disagree, then we'll know for sure.

[pnwmom]

21. States with paper ballots can do an audit. States like Pennsylvania

with machines that produce no paper trail can never be audited. And that's an enormous risk for us to be taking.

[yallerdawg]

33. We had a friend who worked at County Board of Registrars.

She told us when they had issues with ballots and counts - they threw the whole bunch out. Machine count and ballots.

It was all Republican anyway - nobody cared.

See Siegelman/Riley election. Scroll down to "Aftermath Controversy."

"Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean you're not being followed."

[Coyotl]

19. Remember when exit polls were only off by a couple of percent, now it is well over 10%

In 2004, not one state over 5% red shift. In 2016, 11 of 20 states over 5% red shift.

Remember how bent out of shape everyone was in 2004 when exit polls in Ohio were off by a whopping three percent?



How do you say WTF? How frikking stupid do you have to be to believe this has a valid explanation within the bounds of statistics?

[BainsBane]

31. Part of that is that exit polls are far less rigorous than they used to be.

One outfit does them all. The media doesn't want to pay for their own exit polls.

[Coyotl]

36. Same as before actually. What has changed is not all states are exit polled.

We have 20 Senate races with Dem vs. Rep. candidates and with good, averaged polling and exit polls. We have high numbers of exit poll respondents in the battleground states, so low MoEs.

MO (1589)
OH (3107)
WI (2970)
NC (3904)
PA (2535)
FL (3828)
NH (2643)
GA (2541)
NV (2390)
IN (1676)

[BainsBane]

40. That's a huge change. If they only sample a handful of states, than hardly reflect

The national vote. I've already seen some careful accounts of how the data on Latino voters is wrong.

[Coyotl]

61. Each battleground state is a large sampling, a stand alone poll with low MoE.

So the states which had the greatest probability of altering the outcome had the largest number of respondents and best exit polling accuracy. Look at how high these n values are.

NC (3904)
FL (3828)
OH (3107)
WI (2970)
IA (2844)
NH (2643)
GA (2541)
PA (2535)
NV (2390)
AZ (1726)
IN (1676)
MO (1589)

The focus is where we need it. The states which had no Senate races and no impact on outcome did not need to be polled. The resources were placed where they were of use and the design made the accuracy highest where most needed. Really no change when you just omit superfluous parts.

[yallerdawg]

38. "Who'd you vote for?"

How do you get less rigorous?

[BainsBane]

39. It's the sampling

Last edited Fri Nov 18, 2016, 03:37 AM - Edit history (1)

How many precincts they sample; If those precincts are truly as representative as the models count on; how they choose their interview subjects; if they have interviews proficient in enough languages to get accurate data from various demographics.

[yallerdawg]

43. The exit polls are as suspect now as the pre-election polls?

It just keeps getting worse.

[Coyotl]

62. The exit polls and the pre-election polls are in rather good agreement.

The pre-election polling averages and the exit polls have far better concurrence than the results do with either set of polls. That exit polls and average polls correlation is strongest in the battleground states, polls with the largest number of respondents and least margin of error. The four swing states red shifts in excess of the margin of error for both poll comparisons, with exit polls or with average polls.

What seems suspect is the vote count. It is possible to analyze the exit poll data and compare states. If only we had access to the complete data set instead of rounded numbers from the M$M.

[yallerdawg]

63. We have to discredit all the polls, pre- and post-...

to reconcile with the voting outcomes.

Or...the vote totals have been compromised, and the polling was correct.

We need "the smoking gun."

Now it's like testing the Theory of Evolution.

Wherever science says a "missing link" has to be, that's where they look. And the reality is, that is exactly where they keep finding it!

[Coyotl]

66. Obviously, it is time to recognize that science and statistics are liberal conspiracies

because the God Emperor must be crowned, plus everyone knows the system cannnot possibly be rigged now that the result is what the Emperor wanted.

In our new alternate reality, statistics has to be flexible and conform to beliefs, otherwise the coronation of the God Emperor is threatened. We now live in an age of non-reason where three standard deviations is the new normal for acceptable error in politics.
However, in medicine, we'll still use the old-fashioned statistics book methods.

[cilla4progress]

55. IT WAS A

COUP! Repeat after me!

What do we think a coup is, if not this? FBI. KGB. Flynn. Giuliani. Coup. Plain and simple.

[pnwmom]

20. At the very least, we do KNOW for a fact

that James Comey intervened with his two letters, with 11 days remaining till the election, and then 2 days. And he gave Trump the chance to trumpet how Comey must have found something really "egregious" (a big word for DT) or he never would have broken policy to make that announcement. And we know that a few days later Hillary's polls took a nosedive.

And we also know, for a fact, that after the voting rights act was overturned by the courts in 2013, red states actively worked to suppress the votes of Democrats, through vote purging, eliminating early voter days, reducing polling spots, and voter ID laws. And we know that these efforts resulted in lower turnout in all the swing states with Republican administrations.

But you're right. The vote still seems closer than it should have been, and so I wonder. Some of the swing states, like Pennsylvania, use a type of voting machine that has been proven to be very hackable (Princeton University computer scientists demonstrated this) and that doesn't produce any paper trail -- so they can't be audited.

Everything about this election smells.

[SunSeeker]

25. Exactly. nt

[spin]

52. I once read a book on conspiracy theories. ...

Unfortunately I can't remember the name of it.

It mentioned a number of conspiracy theories but mentioned one as a definite possibility. Our electronic voting machines could be hacked and shift the election to one candidate and if done correctly it would not be obvious. Of course the election would be close.

A nation state could possibly accomplish this and leave no evidence behind.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

24. Consider: They threw everything they had at Obama and lost.

[cilla4progress]

56. No.

His percentages were too high. And they didn't have their Manchurian candidate ready yet. This goes higher than McConnell.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

68. Just saying, Trump should have lost worse than RMoney.

[world wide wally]

26. When staging a coup, the perps do not want to get caught or it could mean death for treason, but...

with just a little help from voter supression, a little help from the FBI, a little help from cable news, a little help from the hackers in Russia and presto!
Coup staged with no trail of obvious evidence. Just a lot of information that has people spinning in circles and biting at their tails and at each other.

[SHRED]

27. Sounds about right

[red dog 1]

73. 1

Last edited Fri Nov 18, 2016, 08:43 PM - Edit history (1)

[DemonGoddess]

28. You're right

This stinks. Something very fishy is going on.

[BainsBane]

29. Isn't it possible the polls were just wrong?

The problem is that so many states were off, states with different voting systems. That would be very difficult to hack.

[Coyotl]

41. It's not difficult if you are the person in charge.

There is always a human involved. Elections are no longer hand counted and reported from each precinct, counting is more centralized and humans do that, using machines. If you can't trust the humans ....

How was AL Gov. Seigleman's election stolen. Someone with access changed the numbers to the result they wanted. Piece of cake, no harder than editing a post on DU if you have log in privileges. There's always someone with access to every system.

[BainsBane]

42. We're talking about many people in charge of many states

With different voting systems.

[yallerdawg]

44. We're talking about a political party with a single-minded goal.

Remember. We're Democrats.

We always bring a knife to a gunfight.

[Coyotl]

46. We're talking about a 95,000 voter margin flipping the electoral college to match popular vote win.

In PA, 35,000 votes switched from R to Dem would give Hillary 20 electoral votes.
In FL, 60,000 votes switched from R to Dem would give Hillary 29 electoral votes.

So, flip 95,000 votes in two states, and the outcome is altered.

[mnhtnbb]

64. You don't need to hack all of them, just a handful does it and take the ones with Repubs in charge

FL, NC, OH, MI, WI

[Coyotl]

75. Surgical precision! And you flip the Senate at the same time.

What a difference ONLY 100,000 flipped votes makes!

[FrenchieCat]

30. I agree..

And rather than placing blame on everything but what needs to be blamed, we need to start doing some investigating, because nothing adds up.

[MyNameIsKhan]

32. I agree more I think and talk... the whole campain looks like a plan and executed...

Trump saying election is rigged, other party saying no rigged..

Then he and putin rig the election now we have nothing to say....

assholes

[cilla4progress]

58. Eexactly! No one is mentioning

That angle. Dems got boxed in hailing the reliability of our elections when Hillary was up by 10 points. Hard to unring that bell. Trump in his maniacal marketing genius with Putin in his ear staged it exquisitely.

I don't watch a lot of series tv, but when I do, I can usually see where things are going and I'm pretty confident I've got this one right. And with Sen. Graham and the NSA Director saying the same thing I'm in good company

[MyNameIsKhan]

59. Well we start with two of us... Funny this is the word

On the street ... I am positive this was a movie set and we dems did not know ...

[lonestarnot]

37. Nope, it's not. Not valid.

[herding cats]

45. This is deeper than just election tampering.

This election had a foreign power tampering with our election, RW agents of the FBI aiding them and a candidate openly calling for voter suppression of 'suspect' people. Then suddenly it's turned on its head in the final hours and the opposition pulls a victory out of the jaws of defeat, and we're supposed to be passive and "give him a chance" to prove himself?!

If we were a lesser nation people would call it a coup, but since we're "The Leader of the Free World" it's got to be legit, right? Right?

[AgadorSparticus]

47. 1!

[herding cats]

67. Now the whole world is going to pay the price.

Elections have consequences, and this one is going to leave a mark for decades to come.

[AgadorSparticus]

48. This was actually my initial reaction. That the Russians hacked into the election.

Or tampered with it in some way. NOTHING of this election makes sense. The exit polls. The numbers. I don't even think Donald Trump himself wanted to be president. And yet here we are...maybe there is a December surprise in the woodworks. I know. I know....One can only hope....

[spin]

50. I totally agree with you that Trump really didn't seem to want to win. ...

I doesn't make sense to me that as big an asshole as Trump appears to be could have any success in business. (Of course he is far from as successful as he claims but still.)

Of course I could be wrong and Trump managed some success in business despite his obnoxious personality.

Now we are stuck with him and he will end up stuck in the White House.

Perhaps there may be a December surprise. This has been such a screwed up election that nothing would surprise me.

[wordpix]

70. mine, too, and I still think it

[cilla4progress]

51. God I totally agree with you and so do

Lindsay Graham and the Director of the NSA!!

So why is there no action and what can be done to launch a serious investigation ? One that would halt or delay the inauguration??

Also use the terminology of COUP.

[FrenchieCat]

60. yep...a coup!

[LWolf]

65. Except that it made sense.

I predicted this outcome almost a year ago.

I disagree with your first and last point.

The polls were probably fine; they showed a close race for most of the primaries and at least part of the GE. The messaging? I thought the messaging sucked. I did see some very good ads. The ground game? It was invisible in my region. Maybe it was fine in others. Overall, I thought it was a lackluster campaign without the message needed to get out the vote.

Please understand this: while I disagree with your assessment, I'm not happy to have been correct in my prediction. The dread in the pit of my stomach over the last 8 or 9 months has become an ulcer. My state voted for Clinton by double-digit margins, and she got all of our electoral votes.

[wordpix]

69. I hypothesize Don's victory rallies in battleground states b/c he's revisiting the scene

of the crimes.

Enterprising reporters need to track who he's meeting with. Repug SOS's and governors in charge of elections, perhaps?

[jmg257]

71. She won the popular vote, lost the important states in areas that make sense - rural counties.

Sorry there just wasn't enough urban Dems to make up the difference - for various reasons.

Surprising? Only because the polls told us otherwise (even though they tightened up a LOT after Comey)

Too many reasons, that make sense, for her to lose, and unfortunately they all added up.

[byronius]

72. People are quick to dismiss this scenario, but it's entirely possible.

Motive, opportunity, and willingness.

[kimbutgar]

76. And like in 2000, 2004 and 2016 the corporate whore media will not report

These abnormalities. I really distrust corporate media even more now.

They could do their job and start question the obvious hacking by Russia of this election. Don't these people have families that will be affected by the orange Cheeto election. And when orange hitler starts going after them and they receive death threats from his alt right crazies they will pay for their treacherous reporting.

[guillaumeb]

77. Three types of fraud?

Easily hacked voting machines, voter suppression via restricting voting, and "cleaning up" the voting rolls?

All three are possible, with the last two a definite in GOP dominated states and swing states.

[barbtries]

78. it's becoming more clear.

it stinks to high heaven.
why does McRory keep fighting when he clearly lost? are they fixing it on the back end?

it really does not make sense. speaking as someone who does not believe that gwbush ever won a presidential election, I am ever closer to believing the same of donald trump.

[Hoyt]

80. I'd like to beliece it was rigged, but I really don't. The angry, ignorant white winger is a fact.

We got beat. If we had won, GOPers would be claiming it was rigged, rather than Democrats. I really don't want to whine like a GOPer for the next 4 years.

[0rganism]

81. what you describe is pretty much a dead end for democracy

maybe we're there now, maybe we're not

if we're there, talking about candidates and policies becomes pointless, nor can we contribute to peacefully implementing any kind of solution. what shall we talk about instead?

if we're not there, then continuing discussions within the context and framework of these forums retains value and promotes confidence in the underlying mechanism by which the social contract of this nation is maintained and renewed. we might wish to focus on how to avoid the dead-end scenario.

[Zambero]

82. My sense exactly

Things are not adding up. There was much outside meddling that was clearly visible above the surface: voter suppression, Comey/FBI , the Russian-Wikileaks connection -- but what else occurred that is not evident from looking at the raw election tallies? Exit polling does not correspond with those results. Even the Trump campaign thought they had lost based on initial review of exit poll data. It seems that external forces are more powerful, in terms of affecting the outcome, than the election process itself.