Just for shits and giggles, how likely is this EC scenario?

[major debacle]

EC vote is tied, Hillary wins popular vote, and House throws the election to Donald?

[Democrats Ascendant]

1. Impossible.

NV is decided already.

[major debacle]

3. Not according to RCP

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html

[geek tragedy]

4. RCP is full of it. Early vote decisive in NV. nt

[major debacle]

5. How has the outcome of the early voting been determined?

I am under the impression that it is not legal to reveal exit polls before polls close.

Am I wrong on this?

[geek tragedy]

6. Democrats have a large turnout advantage and 70% of vote is early

Polls in NV are usually way off--partisan makeup of early vote has proven again and again to be a better predictor of outcome.

[major debacle]

7. OK, just read that party affiliation of early voters is public record

Early Voting Comparison to 2012

This would seem to point to a Democratic win in Nevada.

[Demsrule86]

22. Boo hoo...Did you see the lines and who was standing in them...in Democratic Clark County

There are more than 100,000 more registered Democrats...enjoy your stay.

[major debacle]

28. To the hilt, so far

Thanks for your god wishes

[Demsrule86]

45. I have good wishes for all Democratic supporters...others not so much.

[book_worm]

10. I thought this was for "shits and giggles"

you seem to be taking it seriously.

[major debacle]

11. How did you arrive at that assumption?

It is merely a speculation on a not completely impossible, although far-fetched possibility.

That IS allowed here, isn't it?

[Buzz Clik]

36. Your graph is misleading in a number of ways.

First, the y-axis is so narrow that it barely captures the noise in the data.
Second, the majority of polls in the past week show Clinton ahead by at least 2 points.
Finally, Nevada is a throw-away state for Clinton. Trump MUST capture NV along with a dozen others, but it's irrelevant to HRC.

[mcar]

40. Why are you posting RW nonsense here?

RCP is a right-leaning aggregator.

"Shits and giggles?" Oh yeah, a Trump presidency would be a laugh riot. : facepalm:

[aaaaaa5a]

2. Hillary has NV. This map can't happen. nt

[Mz Pip]

8. New Hampshire?

Isn't Hillary ahead there?

[Eric J in MN]

12. Trump leads by 2 pts in NH in the RCP average. NT

NT

[major debacle]

13. Again, not according to RCP

New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton

Not sure of party affiliation of possible early voters in New Hampshire.

[radius777]

61. NYT Upshot gives Hillary 80% chance in NH, projected margin +3.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/new-hampshire-election-forecast.html

Princeton's Sam Wang says he sees a 5% victory for Hillary in NH.

The prediction markets (scroll down and hover over the NH) currently have her at 68.5% odds of winning the state.

NH is a northeastern blue leaning state that last went red in 2000, very unlikely imo it would ever go red for someone like Trump, especially with moderate repub women crossing over to vote for Hillary.

[book_worm]

9. Not likely.

[Mr. Ected]

15. Thanks for the anxiety attack

I come here for solace and support, but i caked my Hanes reading this.

[major debacle]

19. Sorry...

Although I am adamantly opposed to a Trump presidency and whole-heartedly support Hillary, I try not to get too emotionally wracked about it.

[Demsrule86]

23. Really now... wise of you.

Last edited Sun Nov 6, 2016, 08:49 PM - Edit history (1)

There fixed it..dots in the wrong place.

[major debacle]

30. You seem to have taken an especial interest in my well-being here

What exactly do you find "not wise" of me? That I try not to get too emotionally wrought over the election?

[Warren DeMontague]

43. Yeah... Thank you for your concern

I think Trump winning NV, FL and NH at this point is a real stretch. I am confident about Tuesday.

But if i was a trump supporter i'd be whining and whizzing in my grampers.

[Demsrule86]

57. Typo fixed it...dots which I favor in the wrong order

It reads " Really now...wise of you."

[SammyWinstonJack]

55. Well bully for you.

I try not to get too emotionally wracked about it.

[oasis]

16. Long on shit, short on giggles.

[Demsrule86]

17. I call it impossible and once again a negative post...

[major debacle]

21. Why negative?

I did not disparage Hillary or praise Trump. I merely asked what others thought of the likelihood of this scenario.

It's not completely impossible. And I did learn that the party affiliation of early voters, at least in Nevada, is public record, and acknowledge this in my reply to 'geek tragedy', and acknowledged that thisd seemd to indicate that Nevada appears likely to come in Democratic.

But we are all entitled to our opinions...

[Demsrule86]

25. Oh please...how much you think the FBI letter hurt Trump today...that and his

assassination bullshit?

[major debacle]

38. Look, no one would be happier than I to see Trump squashed like the bug

... that he is. If you are so confident that he will be, why is my pleasure excursion into the realm of remote possibility making you so upset?

[Warren DeMontague]

44. "Pleasure excursion"?

What an interesting way to phrase it.

[Demsrule86]

56. It is demoralizing to already nervous people.

This is an important election. The courts hang in the balance. I look at the numbers and Trump has lost Nevada and will not run the table...he will not get Michigan or Pennsylvania...Hillary needs one state...one.

[major debacle]

62. Please don't tell me that Democrats are this fragile

I know better.

[Demsrule86]

64. A Trump win is truly terrifying to all the Democrats I know...a guy who can't even control himself

on twitter with his fingers on the button? And the courts are at stake...the progressive movement is over if Trump gets elected...thankfully he won't...over 300 electoral electoral college votes for Hillary when all is said and done. And I was out yesterday and today...Ohio is looking better we may get it. I was in Cleveland today.

[kwolf68]

18. Not as far fetched as most think

Many in here see Clinton with 340 EV, but it's not gonna be that big. Your scenario is possible, but not likely. I think the Yam will get Ohio, NC and Florida perhaps, but I like Clinton's chances in NH and NV. All the states you have blue are probably a lock for Clinton...basically every other battleground state Dump has to sweep. He could take none and get blown out or take them all and forge into the White House. I think neither will happen. I predict Hillary will win 290 or so EVs

[major debacle]

24. I agree with your assessment

The agony of waiting will soon be over and when it is I feel confident that Hillary will win, but probably not by a blow-out, but that would certainly be YUUUUUUUUGELY and BIGLY welcome

[Demsrule86]

26. I predict over 300 and she gets Ohio.

[Demsrule86]

27. I predict over 300 and she gets Ohio.

[uawchild]

39. Why such a negative post?

The two Nate Silver nerds on TV today both said when asked for their personal, not the model, prediction had Hillary getting over 320.

tsk tsk shame on you for being this negative.


Oh, the irony, eh? lol

Seriously though, I believe they are right and Hillary will get around 320.

[Buzz Clik]

33. Agreed that 340 is highly unlikely. But, the count will be nowhere near 269.

A count of 300-310 seems a near certainty.

[0rganism]

20. trump wins NH, FL, NC and NV?

unlikely

gonna leave it at that and move on

[Buzz Clik]

37. Even if he does, he needs even more states in Clinton's column

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

29. Essentially impossible.

Every four years someone proposes this nonsense. Remind me again the last time the electoral college vote was a tie?

[major debacle]

35. When was the last time before 2008 that the US elected a non-white?

Nothing is impossible.

And just in case you really don't know it was in 1800, between Jefferson and Aaron Burr.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

47. My point exactly.

Actually, three times, has the final outcome of the election gone to Congress: 1801, 1825, and 1877.

Meanwhile, it takes a lot of convoluted thinking to come up with the 269-269 tie. And as others have already pointed out, you're giving states to Trump he's simply not going to get.

And I can hardly recall an election since 1968 in which the idea of the election going to the House of Representatives isn't seriously proposed by someone.

Of course, in 2000 it was decided by the Supreme Court, but there was not an EC tie involved.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

31. Low, I think, but not beyond the realm of possibility.

I e-mailed that same map to my Jewish "girlfriend," except I showed Trump winning one electoral vote in Maine too. She doesn't follow politics as much as me, but she's still concerned about a Trump win and plans to follow the coverage on Tuesday night.

I mostly used the map to indicate the significance of New Hampshire, telling her that their polls should be closed by 8 pm.

I also sent her what I considered a more realistic map with Clinton getting about 322 electoral votes (maybe more if her GOTV effort is indeed working).

[Buzz Clik]

32. I've seen this before, but not at DU. And not by someone on the left.

Just speculating?

[major debacle]

41. Let's just say I like the suspense of a close game

Super Bowl XLIX was so much more exciting than Super Bowl XLVIII. I'm sure we will all be glued to our sets on election night and I am sure we will all witness and cheer a Hillary victory.

I am so thoroughly confident of a Hillary victory at this point that I can, at this late stage, engage in a little what-if speculation just to keep the game interesting.

[nolabels]

34. Every vote matters

It's not such a wrong thing if it gets people out to vote. Pretty sure to the person, of anyone that sticks around this website or many and most like it will all be voting. The thing is how do we get others interested on their own accord. The correct answer to that question is worth trillions of dollars (and many other valuable things).

The moneyed clipped establishment has used subtraction (of our votes) against us for decades, perhaps we can figure out some way of making addition to work for us

[uawchild]

42. Very unlikely

On TV today, two people from 538, I forget who but not Nate, both said at the end they personally felt Hillary would get around 320 or so electoral votes.

I think those Nate Silver Nerds were right. In the end its going to be a very solid win for our team.

[tritsofme]

46. Very unlikely. However if Trump were to win NH, he probably carried ME-2 as well.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

50. Yep.

I'll be watching the New Hampshire exit polls and tallies VERY closely on Tuesday night.

[napi21]

53. IMO less than.00001% nt

[Grey Lemercier]

58. 2 huge points that make this EXTRAORDINARILY unlikely

1 Nevada is 90% in the bag (thank the fuck yay!) due to HUGE early voting turnout of Latinos.

2 IF this pie in sky scenario did happen, there is a 90% chance that Trump also would take ME 2nd district (and its 1 EV), and would hit 270, thus negating your "toss to the House" scenario.

Unfortunately, IF somehow your map is duplicated (except for Nevada going Dem) and the shitgibbon (and this is even MORE unlikely) flips any ONE of the following:

WI
MI
PA
CO
VA

any of those is almost impossible for Trump to flip, CO would be most likely, then MI, and those are 95-97% plus likely to go for Clinton

If that nightmare did happen, THEN, and only then, Trump would go over 270, and again, avoid the house.

The only paths to 269-269 tie would involve NH flipping (from your map) to Clinton, and then Colorado (AND ME 2nd district) going Trump, OR NH flipping to Clinton (again flipping from your map) and WI (but NOT ME 2nd) flipping to Trump. The final even remotely possible paths to a 269 tie would be MI to flip to Trump, IA to flip to Clinton, ME 2nd NOT going to Trump, AND New Hampshire flipping to Clinton or, finally PA flipping to Trump, NH staying Trump, NC flipping to Clinton (again thsi is all based off your OP map) AND ME 2nd district NOT going Trump. These paths are probably 1 in a thousand odds, if not less. If VA flips, there are no paths possible under 10,000 to one, 100,000 to one odds to make a 269-269 tie.


None of this is going to happen.

But you knew that I suspect.

here are the EV maps atm as I see it

the WORST possible, as I see it, (based of Nevada being wrapped up), outcome (and still a win) for Sec Clinton

is




that is ALMOST impossible to even be that close


what I actually thing the real outcome will be:

[Quixote1818]

60. Well, some ass hole elector in Washington said he won't give his vote to Hillary so she loses.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/hes-a-state-democratic-elector-but-robert-satiacum-says-he-wont-vote-for-clinton/

[ericson00]

63. didn't Trump already lose Nevada?

n/t