2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumComment by Sam Wang today: Confidence is associated with increased turnout
First, think about why we vote. Since a single vote basically never swings a race, the rational argument for voting is not strong. Instead, we vote because it is our duty, because we build the habit over time, and because voting makes us feel good. In light of that, the obvious consequence of supporting a winner is increased likelihood of voting theres more emotional reward.
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If you live in a state where you are certain that your candidate will win, you are more likely to vote than predicted by likely-voter screens. In the same state, if you support the losing candidate, you are less likely to vote than predicted by likely-voter screens. Now, I should say that its not clear that this idea applies to a national race. But my point is that we dont have evidence that confidence is a turnout-killer.
Finally, consider the converse. When Donald Trump claims that the election is rigged, that tells his supporters that he is doomed. Based on the state-level data above, this might depress turnout.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/05/confidence-is-associated-with-increased-turnout/#more-18547
mucifer
(23,572 posts)Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Trump messed his own nest by insulting such a powerful demographic that was voting in really low numbers.
A very large portion of the Texas population has been sitting out voting until now, rendering the political majority the minority party.
Turnout can transform Texas overnight.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts).... Lets be conservative and say two-thirds of the vote is in it was 70 percent in 2012 and turnout is down this year. That means there are roughly about 385,000 votes left. Lets say Trump did the impossible and won Election Day by 10 points 50-40. That would be 192,000 to 154,000, or 38,000 votes. He would probably still lose.
And the chances of Trump winning election day by 10 points are about the same as Billy Bush anchoring the CBS Evening News. .........
JI7
(89,276 posts)spooky3
(34,483 posts)betsuni
(25,645 posts)I don't understand all the hubbub about people suddenly deciding to not vote because their party is ahead, makes no sense to me. If someone convinces you that the system is rigged and corrupt, that would more likely depress voting, it seems to me. Every time I see the word "complacency" my nostrils flare with irritation. And after Clinton wins, all the posts reminding us to "keep her feet to the fire" will cause more nostril-flaring.
Cicada
(4,533 posts)Karl agrees with Wang, always lies about the expected margin to boost confidence and turnout